Who’s next? We ask this question every year in fantasy football. Who’s the next breakout quarterback or surprise QB1? While it’s nice to draft a super stud and eliminate any worries, there is a bit more joy in finding late-round value that returns Top 10 numbers. Not only do you look smart, you get to lord it over your league mates, as you didn’t have to sacrifice early-round value at RB or WR. Here are my Top 5 potential QB breakout candidates for 2025, with a “likelihood” score of it happening.
Rookies and Non-Qualifiers
Jayden Daniels, WAS; Bo Nix, DEN — As rookies, Daniels was QB5 and Nix was QB8. Daniels has Top 3 potential, and Nix could climb a spot or two, but those are minimal jumps, and I’m searching for at least a tier jump — maybe even three — for my breakout criteria.
ROOKIES:
Cam Ward, TEN; et al — As always, I believe in terrific debuts but not “breakouts” for rookies.
Breakout QuarterbacksCaleb Williams, CHI
Case For: We saw improvements in Williams when Thomas Brown took over after the Shane Waldron firing nine games into the 2024 campaign. Now Ben Johnson arrives from Detroit, bringing his offensive mind, offensive line improvements, plus weapons Luther Burden III and Colston Loveland were added in the draft. And let’s not forget, DJ Moore and Rome Odunze were already in the fold. With Johnson as the offensive coordinator, the Lions were Top 8 in passing yards per game in 2022, then second in 2023 and 2024. Williams’ 2022 season at USC was otherworldly, with 4,537 yards and 42 touchdowns through the air, as well as 382 yards and 10 touchdowns on the ground. The ability, surrounding talent and coaching give Williams real Top 5 upside.
Case Against: As was the case in his final season in college, Williams ran around in the pocket (instead of upfield) and tried to force plays too often. That included a few ill-advised heaves downfield — those of which, often turned into interceptions (five of his six INTs were deep throws/trying to extend the play). I made the argument that Williams had the best group of weapons for a rookie quarterback, and yet, he still struggled. While there were improvements after Waldron was let go, Williams regressed somewhat down the stretch. It’s common for quarterbacks to need a half to a full season before showing complete improvement with a new offense or coach.
QB1 Likelihood: 7/10
Drake Maye, NE
Case For: Rushing upside. Maye has Lamar Jackson upside. Now, don’t pick up your pitchforks yet — I merely mean on a per-touch basis. Maye won’t run for 1,000 yards, but he can sit in the 700-800 range with a handful of touchdowns. The Patriots added Stefon Diggs, Kyle Williams, TreVeyon Henderson and help on the offensive line. Weeks 6-16 of Maye’s rookie season — excluding Week 8 when he was concussed — he averaged 16.6 fantasy points per game, which would have been QB13 in FPPG, ahead of Justin Herbert and Tua Tagovailoa … and with one of the league’s worst receiving corps.
Case Against: Given his health and off-field concerns, Diggs is no guarantee to help. Williams is an intriguing rookie, but not without concerns, and could be no more than a Zay Jones type. Among QBs with a minimum of 100 attempts, Maye had the 12th-highest off-target percentage (12.1% — tied with Spencer Rattler and just behind Will Levis at 12.3%). The Patriots offense could limit Maye’s ceiling with one of the heavier rushing attacks and lower-scoring offenses, given head coach Mike Vrabel’s tendencies — the Titans ranked higher than 22nd in plays per game just once in his tenure and were in the bottom four in four of his six seasons.
QB1 Likelihood: 6/10
Bryce Young, CAR
Case For: Young was Top 8 in fantasy points and FPPG from Weeks 13-18. The Panthers drafted the consensus top wideout, who also doesn’t play corner, in Tetairoa McMillan. Promising wideouts Xavier Legette and Jalen Coker enter their second seasons, plus Adam Thielen is back. We saw Young’s comfort level improve, especially during those final six weeks, when his air yards per attempt was 9.6 (8.8 career). Young was relaxed and smart, throwing a touchdown in every game from Weeks 8-18, and he ran for 208 yards and five touchdowns over his final eight games.
Case Against: The rushing upside appeared to be part of his potential, but he never achieved it in college or through his first 22 NFL games. Young still makes some errant throws, as evidenced by his 60.3 completion percentage, which dropped to 38.9% when attempting passes of 15+ air yards. The league is leaning more into zone coverage, and Young was one of the worst performers against it with just 64.8 Comp% (40th among QBs with a minimum of 40 attempts) and 9.2 yards per completion (42nd). McMillan should be great, but he’s a rookie, and Legette or Coker needs to make a significant improvement this year … or Thielen could dip his toes into the fountain of youth.
QB1 Likelihood: 4.5/10
Trevor Lawrence, JAX
Case For: Liam Coen + Travis Hunter + Year 2 Brian Thomas. Coen is a significant piece of the Baker Mayfield resurgence story. Lawrence was one of the most highly touted quarterbacks of the past decade. There is a rushing ceiling he still hasn’t hit, as Lawrence has the ability for 500+ rushing yards and a good chunk of touchdowns … if he ever finds his Clemson comfort level. There were signs of it finally clicking for Lawrence before his injury last season, particularly with a low OFFTGT% for throws of 15+ AirYD (21.1%, ninth lowest of 34 qualified QBs).
Case Against: It’s been three and a half seasons of Lawrence looking like a replacement-level quarterback. He had the fourth-worst passer rating and was just 26th of 34 QBs in touchdowns per attempt when not pressured. If Lawrence doesn’t run more, he’ll need 4,000+ yards and close to 30 passing touchdowns to reach QB1 status.
QB1 Likelihood: 3/10
Michael Penix, ATL
Case For: Penix is a great passer with similarities to Matthew Stafford, and he shows nice ability with downfield throws. Albeit in a limited sample, Penix was second in AirYD/ATT at 10.2 (behind only Anthony Richardson at 12.2) and fourth in yards per completion at 12.7. Even more impressive is Penix’s YD/Comp jumped to a league-high 17.3 when under pressure. Clearly, he has a strong rapport with Drake London, targeting him 39.8% of the time in three starts, with just 15.4 OFFTGT% and a production line of 22-352-2 on the 39 targets to London. Also, Bijan Robinson is a legit threat in the passing game.
Case Against: Atlanta has one of the more questionable receiving rooms with London, Darnell Mooney and Ray-Ray McCloud (or Khadarel Hodge) as the top three options. Kyle Pitts is part of that group, but he’s looking to save his career after bombing every year since his rookie season. Even with Zac Robinson coming over from the Rams, the Falcons still had the ninth-lowest passing rate last year (54.4%). Again, it’s a small sample, but that number dropped with Penix at the helm, to just 51.0% — sixth-lowest — in those final three games. Lastly, Penix offers very little on the rushing side, likely to add 150 or so yards and a touchdown or two.
QB1 Likelihood: 2/10
(Top photo of Caleb Williams: Michael Reaves / Getty Images)