For instance, the Packers use 3×1 formations to create favorable slot matchups for Golden and backside single coverage for their tight ends and running backs. Above, the Packers put Golden in the inside slot (No. 3). Carolina plays a cover-zero structure in the back end, which gets Golden matched up on an out-leverage safety on the high corner route for a 24-yard touchdown.
Without a consistent early-down offense, the Packers have been middling. Green Bay ranks 23rd in points per game (21.4) and 17th in EPA per play (+0.01). The Packers passing offense has been decent, ranking 12th in pass EPA (+0.142). But these aren’t the results the Packers hoped for this season, and they feel weighed down by offensive line and run-game struggles. For the Patriots defense, New England has to keep a struggling Packers run-and-play-action offense down.
By the numbers, Love has been picking apart two-high safety zones, adding +0.19 EPA per drop-back when teams play split safety. More specifically, he shreds Cover-2 by adding +0.29 EPA per drop-back. However, Love is more pedestrian against single-high defenses like Cover-1 (-0.01) and Cover-3 (-0.04). The Pats should be able to play man coverage against Green Bay, but Kuhr’s confidence in man-to-man could come down to how the Patriots handle the Packers tight ends and running backs.
When defenses play man coverage, we often highlight the corners versus wide receivers. However, defensive coordinators also need to factor in whether they have capable man-coverage defenders on all five eligible receivers, including tight ends and backs. I’ve been waiting to see CB Carlton Davis III draw a tight-end matchup, and this might be the week he takes Kraft when he’s detached from the formation. Jacobs has also been a featured receiver since returning (13 targets, 11 catches, 68 yards, 2 TDs).
Given how efficiently Love has thrown into two-high safety coverages, the Patriots might match strength-on-strength with their man coverages against the Packers pass-catchers.
CB Christian Gonzalez vs. Packers WR Christian Watson
Watson is the Packers most dynamic pass-catcher, setting up a good-on-good matchup with Gonzalez. Watson is a deep-ball specialist and builds second-level breaking routes off his vertical stems. Gonzalez and Watson haven’t faced each other in a game, but I saw them go toe-to-toe in joint practices in Green Bay (2023). Obviously, Gonzalez was just a rookie, but the crowd erupted when Watson caught a deep ball vs. Gonzalez in practice. My guess is that NCB Marcus Jones would then match speed-on-speed with Golden.
DTs Milton Williams vs. Packers C John Williams
The Packers could be starting two backups on their interior offensive line, with Williams in for starting C Sean Rhyan and Aaron Banks at one of the guard spots for injured starter Travis Glover. The Pats need to keep a struggling rush offense down and prevent Love from hanging in muddy pockets, which he’s comfortable doing, by exploiting the Packers weak interior O-line on Sunday.
LT Will Campbell vs. Packers EDGE Lukas Van Ness
Despite playing without star defender Micah Parsons, the Packers have gotten good contributions from Van Ness (team-high 28 pressures), Brenton Cox Jr. (22 pressures), and rookie Dani Dennis-Sutton (20 pressures) in the pass rush. Van Ness, who spends 73% of his time as a wide-nine over the left tackle, is a tough matchup. The Packers edge rusher has great size (6-5, 272) and length (34-inch arms) as a power-oriented rusher. Campbell has to manage the space Van Ness has to get rolling downhill on his bull rush.