The Buffalo Bills and Minnesota Vikings have spent the opening eight weeks of the season demonstrating just how dominant one side of the ball can be. Buffalo’s offence has been an unstoppable force, while Minnesota’s defence has been an immovable object. On Monday night, those two forces are set to collide
With an average of 33.3 points per game, the Bills are the highest-scoring team in the NFL and the only one scoring more than 30 points per contest. The Vikings’ defence has allowed just 13.3 points a game, also the league’s best. If that figure holds, it would put them among the most dominant defences of the past 20 years.
Both have started a blistering 6-1 with their only losses being by three points or fewer, but for each team, their dominance on one side of the ball has come at the expense of the other.
Seven games into the season, the Vikings’ offence has been one of the league’s biggest disappointments, ranking second-last in the NFL. Sixty-four of their 140 points (45%) this season have come at the foot of their kicker, Will Reichard. Their 11 touchdowns ois barely half the 20 Bills quarterback Josh Allen has accounted for on his own.
Minnesota’s defence is unlike any other in the league. Its aggressive blitzing and ability to generate turnovers should give the offence favourable field position and more opportunities to score. However, the Vikings have struggled to make the most of those opportunities, with their offence failing to deliver consistently even when put in advantageous positions.
The Bills, by contrast, have no such problems in attack. With last year’s touchdown leader James Cook in the backfield and an MVP front-runner in quarterback Josh Allen (below), their offence has been more than capable of putting points on the board. The problem has been at the other end of the field, where their defence has forced the offence to produce big numbers just to keep them in games.
You’d be forgiven for thinking they were Buffalo Bill rather than the Bills, given the number of shootouts they have found themselves in this season. Four of Buffalo’s six wins have required at least 36 points, with the offence repeatedly bailing out a defence that has yet to find its footing.
They currently rank among the league’s worst defences for points allowed per game. They had been firmly in the bottom five until last week, when they faced a Ravens team forced to use three quarterbacks in the first half because of injuries. The third was undrafted rookie Joe Fagnano, who had never taken an NFL snap before Sunday.
Since the 2020 season, Buffalo has consistently ranked within the NFL’s top ten defences. Even with very little change to the playing personnel this off-season, they have struggled badly this year. Against the pass, they give up the third-most yards per game, and because they have so much money committed to players, in particular those on offence, it may be hard for them to find a quick fix.
This imbalance, with teams dominating on one side of the ball while struggling on the other, is not exclusive to the Bills and Vikings. As things stand only the Chicago Bears, San Francisco 49ers and Jacksonville Jaguars have a top ten offence and defence. That is a notable contrast with the previous ten seasons, when an average of four or five teams finished in the top ten for both categories. It could signal a shift in the league’s competitive landscape, particularly as the gap between the strongest and weakest teams continues to narrow.
Minnesota and Buffalo have operated on the edge so far this season, and it has worked. Both sides are 6-1 and firmly in contention to secure top seeds in the NFC and AFC. Even with these strong starts, history may not be on their side.
In the last ten seasons four teams finished the season as a top five offence whilst at the same time being bottom five defensively. None of them made the playoffs.
It’s a similar story when the roles are reversed, as the three teams in that same timespan who were a top five defensive team and bottom five in offensive output all failed to reach the postseason.
Monday night will see not only strength against strength but also weakness against weakness. It may ultimately come down to which team manages its shortcomings best, rather than simply relying on the strengths that have carried them this far.
Games to Watch This Weekend
New Orleans Saints vs Cleveland Browns
The star of County Down returns to the NFL, with Charlie Smyth suiting up for the Saints once again. What more reason do you need?
Atlanta Falcons vs Cincinnati Bengals
After a week’s hiatus, the international series is back, this time in Madrid, with the NFL bringing out its own galacticos, including Joe Burrow and Bijan Robinson, to play at the Bernabeu.
New England Patriots vs Green Bay Packers
Both teams have looked impressive in spells this season, and this clash should be a can’t-miss encounter, with Drake Maye and Jordan Love facing off.