The NFL season is halfway through — nine weeks down, nine to go — and as the finish line gets closer and closer, the games get bigger and bigger. With the trade deadline behind us, the most major external upgrades are in the rearview mirror, too.
The NFC North remains, by far, the best division in the NFL, and all four teams would go to the playoffs if they started today. But they don’t, and that means the next nine weeks will feature several heavyweight in-division rivalry games, including one this week. While other divisions might not be as strong, they still have one guaranteed postseason spot up for grabs, making every meeting a crucial one.
With the help of SportsLine projections, these are the five Week 10 games that will be the most impactful on the playoff race.
1. Texans at Browns
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET on Fox (Stream: fubo, try for free)
Playoff chances
Current
38%
33%
With win
50%
54%
With loss
16%
21%
Only one NFL team has started 0-4 and gone on to make the playoffs: the 1992 Chargers. Houston is trying to join them, but at 3-5, the Texans’ backs are against the wall, and they can hardly afford to lose a game against a fellow AFC playoff contender.
The 5-4 Browns have been one of the more pleasant surprises of the season, but they’ve now lost two straight and sit as the No. 8 seed — one spot outside the current playoff field. Cleveland is yet to lose at home this season, but Houston will be looking to change that and hang around in the postseason hunt. There’s lots on the line here for both clubs.
2. Commanders at Giants
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video
Amid plenty of talk about who could catch the NFC East-leading Giants, the Giants (5-2-1) … just keep winning. New York has won two straight and is 4-1-1 over its past six games. They can effectively end the Commanders’ (2-5-1) season in terms of playoff hopes Thursday.
A Washington win would not only help boost its postseason hopes — though they’d still be slim — but it would draw the Cowboys, who have a 4-5 record, closer to New York.
3. Vikings at Packers
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET on Fox (Stream: fubo, try for free)
Playoff chances
Current
83%
65%
With win
93%
76%
With loss
75%
48%
Kirk Cousins returns to the Vikings and jumps right into a crucial matchup in a highly competitive playoff and division race. Minnesota has lost two straight after a 6-0 start and while a loss wouldn’t be the end of the world, a win would have Cousins and co. looking very, very good for the postseason.
The Packers, meanwhile, are not only at the bottom of the NFC North at 6-3, but they’re just a game up on the Seahawks and the Rams for the final playoff spot. There are huge, huge implications for Jordan Love and co.
4. Patriots at Lions (in Germany)
Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET on Fox (Stream: fubo, try for free)
Playoff chances
Current
45%
83%
With win
62%
87%
With loss
36%
75%
The Patriots suffered a disappointing blowout loss at home in Week 9 against the Packers and can ill afford to make it two straight losses against NFC North opponents, this time against the Lions in Munich, Germany. New England’s current 45% postseason chance ranks eighth in the AFC, so the Patriots would like nothing more than to win and then hope other AFC playoff contenders lose as the team returns home.
Detroit, meanwhile, can strengthen its postseason hopes and tie the Bears, who are on their bye week, for first place in the NFC North. In fact, the Lions would even hold the tiebreaker thanks to a superior division record.
5. Panthers at Saints
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET on Fox (Stream: fubo, try for free)
Playoff chances
Current
19%
12%
With win
27%
18%
With loss
10%
5%
Going from one of the most competitive divisions for a good reason to one of the most competitive divisions for bad reasons, all four NFC South teams have three wins this season. The Panthers and Saints, who meet this weekend, are tied at the top at 3-5, while the Buccaneers and Falcons are 3-6. Though SportsLine views Tampa Bay as the clear favorite (54% chance to win the division), the winner of this meeting in New Orleans will take the outright NFC South lead entering Week 11.