If you look at the National Football League regular seasons in quarters, (an cleaner endeavor when the season was 16 games, a number divisible by four), which many higher-ups in the NFL do, the Texans have two quarters in the books. The first quarter was a fallout disaster, with an 0-4 record including losses to the Colts and Cowboys. The second quarter was better, with a 3-1 record, steady improvement across the board, and a quarterback playing like an MVP.
On Sunday, the third quarter begins with the first of three consecutive games in which the Texans will be favored — at Cleveland on Sunday, followed by a Thursday home game against the Colts and a Week 12 home game against a Lamar Jackson-less Ravens team. Like last season, the Texans are 3-5, but have a runway to work their way back into the playoff hunt.
The Texans are 4.5 favorites in Cleveland on Sunday, even though the Browns sport a superior 5-4 record to the Texans’ 3-5 record. The oddsmakers would probably tell you that the Texans are favored on the road, because they see the Texans as a talented underachiever and they see the Browns as a less talented overachiever, although the Browns have some fun, young pieces on the team.
This game represents a massive “swing game” for the Texans. Win this game, and the Texans see their chances of making the playoffs surge to 51 percent, better than a coin flip! Lose this game, and their playoff chances plummet to 17 percent. That’s the biggest delta of any team in the NFL this coming weekend. In short, the Texans need to win this game. Here are four things to watch for:
4. Texans running game
While Stroud has been sensational this season (more on that in a moment, because we can’t talk enough C.J. Stroud), the running game for the Texans offensively has been atrocious. Again. For the umpteenth consecutive season. It honestly makes Stroud’s season that much more remarkable. Sunday, the Texans will be facing a defense that allowed 155 yards rushing to the New Orleans Saints (who themselves are a poor rushing offense). The fear is that OC Nick Caley will be tempted to stray from Stroud and try to bully the Browns’ run defense, an endeavor that would likely prove futile. Exacerbating the issues running the ball are injuries, specifically David Montgomery, who returned to practice this week but is still nursing a groin injury, and Woody Marks, who missed practice this week with a knee injury.
3. Texans pass rush
The Texans’ defense has been very inconsistent as an entire unit this season. They’ve improved over the second quarter of the regular season, but they’re still, at best, a middle of the pack defense. However, the pass rush has nto disappointed, with the Texans leading the NFL in sacks with 29, after a team record eight sacks of Justin Herbert in last week’s win over the Chargers. The Texans are set up for similar success this weekend, as Browns tackles Spencer Fano and old friend Tytus Howard allow the most pressure of any tackle duo in the league. It could be a fun afternoon for Will Anderson, Danielle Hunter, and Jadeveon Clowney.
2. C.J. Stroud
Now, we get to Stroud, who is coming off his second AFC Offensive Player of the Week award in a four week period, after dusting the Chargers’ defense with 384 yards passing and five touchdown passes. The crazy thing is that, even with the Texans at 3-5, Stroud might be getting more MVP-type love than he has at any point in his career, including his historic rookie season of 2023. He is fulfilling every bit of promise he showed that season and then some. While the Browns’ run defense is nothing to write home about, they do have a talented secondary. The Texans will need what’s become a “vintage Stroud” type of day, which means spreading the ball around to whomever is open, and being crisp on the details, particularly late in the half and late in the game.
1. Deshaun Watson
In his media availability this week, Watson was asked about going against his former team, something he’s only done once before, in his Browns debut back in 2022. Watson understandably downplayed it, saying that he feels “both sides have moved on.” I think a healthy portion of Texans fans would echo that, as the Texans now have Stroud, who is light years better than Watson, even if Watson has been the signal caller for more wins this season. Watson, on the aggregate, has not played well this season, but he’s been great in the fourth quarters of close games. If this game is tight down the stretch, expect Watson to make plays. Also, since Watson likes holding onto the football for as long as possible, expect the Texans to approach the eight sack total they piled up against the Chargers.
SPREAD: Texans -4.5
PREDICTION: Texans 26, Browns 20
SEAN’S SEASON RECORD: 3-5 SU, 2-6 ATS
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