2. Kansas City will need to find a way to contain running back Bijan Robinson.
The top priority for the Chiefs’ defense on Sunday is pretty simple: Kansas City has to find a way to at least contain Bijan Robinson’s production.
In many ways, Robinson has mirrored what Ken Walker has done for Kansas City this year.
Both Walker and Robinson are near the very top of virtually every applicable leaderboard, including rushing yards (Robinson is first, Walker is second), total yards from scrimmage (Robinson ranks first, Walker ranks fourth), rushing yards-per-game (Walker ranks first, Robinson ranks fourth), broken tackles (Walker ranks second, Robinson ranks third) and average yards-per-rush (Walker ranks second, Robinson ranks fourth).
In other words, consider everything that Walker has been for Kansas City this year – that’s what Robinson has meant to Atlanta. In simple terms, when Robinson has rushed for 145+ yards this year, the Falcons are 2-0. When he falls short of that number, Atlanta is 1-5.
Kansas City did an excellent job of containing Robinson back in Week 3 of the 2024 season, when the Chiefs held him to just 31 yards on 16 carries, and they’ll need to find a way to turn in another strong effort on Sunday. It’s also worth noting that Robinson ranks second on the Falcons in terms of targets (with 40) and will be a frequent component of Atlanta’s passing game.
As for the Chiefs, Walker (groin) won’t play on Sunday, and while his absence is significant, rookie tailback Emmett Johnson has flashed his immense potential in limited chances this season. He’s likely to carry the load on Sunday, and there’s no reason to believe that he isn’t ready for the opportunity.
3. Creating pressure on Falcons quarterback Michael Penix is critical.
Penix has often flashed the magic this year that made him one of the top players in all of college football not too long ago, such as his three-touchdown performance against San Francisco that dealt the 49ers their only loss of the year.
An area where Penix has struggled, however, is when under pressure. According to ESPN Research, Penix has completed a league-low 18% of his passes when pressured this season, and looking at last week specifically, he completed just 1-of-9 passes for -3 yards and an interception while under pressure.
Fittingly, Kansas City is coming off one of its best games of the season in terms of pressuring the opposing quarterback. The Chiefs racked up a season-high five sacks against New York last week, recording a 50% pressure rate according to Next Gen Stats.
It shouldn’t have come as too much of a surprise, either. The Chiefs have been delivering a strong pressure rate for much of the season, they just didn’t have the sacks to show for it. In fact, Kansas City’s 9.8% pressure-to-sack rate through Week 8 was the lowest in the NFL. The Chiefs bumped that number up to 26.3% on Sunday, hopefully marking a sign of things to come moving forward.