The Washington Commanders‘ success in 2024 was a surprise to 95% of the NFL and those who watch football. They won 12 games for the first time in over 30 years and reached the NFC Championship during a year when everyone thought they would be rebuilding. But Adam Peters had ideas; he swapped draft picks for players and signed veteran free agents to support his rookie quarterback.

The success this team had was unforeseen, which is part of the reason that many do not think they can do it again. Begging the question, can the Commanders repeat last season’s success? One CBS Sports analyst doesn’t think so.

The Commanders won a surprising 12 games in the regular season, making the NFC Championship Game for the first time in 1991. There was a catch in last season’s success, however, as they had the most wins when tied or trailing in the final 10 seconds of regulation since 2000 (six) and tied for the second-most wins by six-or-fewer points in a season all-time (including playoffs) with six. Washington won seven games on the final play last season.

This isn’t sustainable, right? The Commanders fought all the way to the end of games, but can’t bank on late-game comebacks every week. A significantly tougher schedule (on paper) won’t help matters, either.

Don’t be fooled: the Commanders are still a good team; they just won’t benefit from last-second success every week to make a deep playoff run again.

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So, because the schedule is more difficult, and many of last season’s games were won on last-second plays, the author doesn’t think they will be able to win games at the last minute. It’s an interesting assumption given that the Commanders have added to the offensive line, added skill players, and improved their defense.

It’s as if some of these analysts forget that there are new additions to this team and that every team will look different from season to season due to player personnel changes. Some teams have more consistency than others, but for the most part, there are always new faces on a football team, and you never know which player simply needed a specific environment to thrive.

Will Washington win 12 games again in 2025? Don’t put it past them. But the goal is to make the postseason, so even if they don’t win 12 games, as long as they have a path to the Super Bowl, it’s still a successful season.

This article originally appeared on Commanders Wire: Can the Commanders repeat their 2024 success in 2025?