Welcome back to another edition of the MWCConnection Roundtable. This week, we revisit a classic question and one that is sure to generate a lot of debate and other opinions. For the 2023 football season, how many Mountain West teams will be bowl-eligible? Also, who will they be?
Mike: The Mountain West took a step back last year with only five bowl-eligible teams. This was a disappointment for the conference, who have had a recent track record of six or more teams in the postseason. Heading into 2025, I’m not sure they fair any better. I think Boise State, San Jose State, and UNLV are pretty close to locks in one way or another. Then there are a lot of teams who will be in the mix. I think Air Force, Colorado State, Hawaii, San Diego State, Utah State, and Wyoming will all be competing for a bowl berth, but obviously, not all will succeed in reaching that benchmark. I’ll say the Falcons and Cowboys are most likely to hit the six-win mark, and another team should find a way as well. I’ll call my shot and say the Mountain West has six bowl teams for the 2025 season.
Matt: After a sub-par 2024 bowl season, I think we get a slight rebound with 6 bowl teams. Boise is always a lock for a bowl game, and I think that Fresno, UNLV, Air Force, Colorado State, and probably Wyoming will round out the slate. Not a great last year for the MWC as we know it now, but I’d happy to have more teams get past 6 wins. Could be a surprise one like New Mexico that jumps up to bowl eligibility, but I feel vaguely confident in 6 teams making it in.
Jeff: I agree with Mike that Boise, San Jose State and UNLV will be locks with the minimum wins needed. One must wonder if any of these teams has what it takes to be considered for the CFP. The next level should be fun and exciting and could get down to the last week. Fresno State, Wyoming, Colorado State and San Diego State seem to be the most likely to get to six wins. One will probably be left out unless a CFP berth is obtained. I think there will be six candidates securing bowl games in 2025/2026 bowl season. Hawaii, Utah State and New Mexico might make runs for six wins but will fall short. Nevada will bring up the rear this year.
Adam E: This is always a fun question to tackle. My guess this season will be six. I like Boise State, obviously. I really like Colorado State this season and feel they will not only qualify, but are a sneaky pick for the MWC Championship Game. The money is high already on UNLV hitting eight wins this season, so they’re my third team to make it to a bowl game. I’ll pick another team that seems like a favorite from those above, San Jose State is good to get a nod. The total wins for Fresno State in Vegas sits at 7.5, I like those odds and will pick them up. And what is a homer without picking his MWC team? A nobody. With that in mind, Jason Eck comes to Albuquerque, bringing the Idaho Vandals with him, and surprises everyone with six wins and bowl eligibility. You heard it here, and you can thank me later.
Chase: After seeing five teams make bowl games last year, I’ll go bold and say that the Mountain West sees seven go bowling this year. Boise State is a persistent bowl lock, and UNLV seems to have as good of a chance under new coach Dan Mullen. Colorado State and San Jose State both made bowls last year, and with the improvements on their rosters, I don’t really see that changing. I think Air Force will also ride the momentum from their season-ending winning streak to a bowl in 2025, and Wyoming will rebound after an awful season. That leaves one spot, which leads me to my hot take: Fresno State will miss a bowl for the first time since 2020. The Bulldogs have a ridiculous road schedule, playing at Kansas, San Jose State, Boise State, Oregon State, and Colorado State, plus the final Battle for the Golden Screwdriver in Hawaii. They could easily lose all of those games, leaving them with no room for error at home, and even one win out of five will likely not be enough. I think the final bowl-eligible team will be between Utah State and Nevada. Utah State is the more likely of the two, as Bronco Mendenhall should help the Aggies to a rebound season. As for Nevada, the Wolf Pack had six one-score losses in 2024, and returns a more well-rounded, experienced group, which should benefit them in close matchups. However, Nevada’s rebuild should take a bit longer than Utah State’s, so give me the Aggies in a 2025 bowl.
Aaron: Right now the betting odds have five teams hitting the six win requirement for Bowl Eligibility. Those are Boise (over/under for wins at 9.5), UNLV (8.5), San Jose (7.5), Colorado State (6.5), and Fresno (6.5). The two on the fringe are Air Force (5.5) and Hawai’i (5.5). Both currently look to be the favorites in five of their games this fall, meaning if they don’t play down to the competition, have some luck, and get an upset (or two), the conference could get seven teams in the postseason. If I had to make a bet I’d say six. Historically, one or two of those teams will underperform while someone I didn’t mention will likely over achieve.
Derek: Looking at the ESPN FPI win-loss totals for all the Mountain West programs, there should be six going in: UNLV (9.7 wins), Boise State (9.6 wins), San Jose State (6.9 wins), Fresno State (6.8 wins), Colorado State (6.7 wins) and Hawaii (6.1 wins). Personally, the FPI isn’t too far off from what I think. UNLV and Boise are preseason locks for a bowl game, as the teams should be able to get close or even replicate what they did last year. San Jose State, Fresno State and Colorado State are on the cusp, but we should see at least two, if not, all of these schools make a bowl game if they do well in conference play. Hawaii is a dark horse that I don’t see making it. Rather, I would put Air Force (projected 4.5 wins) in that sixth spot, as I predict that last year was just a rough spot and the Falcons will return to the postseason come this December. And, even though they are projected to finish tied for last, I do want to bring up Nevada in this conversation as well. Despite being projected to win only 4.1 games, if the Wolf Pack can produce a similar season to last year but flipping half of the games they lost by one score, we will see Nevada in a bowl game this year. So, in total, the Mountain West will have between six to seven teams competing in bowl games this year.