At present moment, nobody seems to believe in the Cowboys, but they should. According to DraftKings sportsbook, the Cowboys are +190 to reach the playoffs, with only three other NFC teams below them. They’re also the odds-on favorite to finish third in the NFC East, well behind both the Eagles and Commanders when it comes to their odds to win the division.

That’s understandable, given how each team finished the 2024 season, but the reality is that the Cowboys are firmly in the mix for not just a playoff spot but the division itself, and for several reasons.

Dak Prescott’s return is huge

People have forgotten just how good the Cowboys are when Dak Prescott is under center. Specifically looking at divisional games, Prescott is 9-4 against the Eagles, 11-2 against the Commanders, and 13-2 against the Giants. Prescott’s only loss to Washington during the Mike McCarthy era was an odd regular-season finale that felt like the team went through the motions, while the quarterback hasn’t lost to the Giants since his rookie year.

The Cowboys have also never had a losing season when Prescott plays 12 or more games, and they usually make the playoffs when he does. They were swept by Philadelphia and split the series with Washington last year, but Prescott missed all four of those games.

The bottom line is that Prescott’s return is bad news for the rest of the division, whether anyone wants to admit it or not.

There are understandable trepidations about the new coaching staff, but Brian Schottenheimer was here for the three straight 12-win seasons, while Matt Eberflus has a strong track record of producing top-tier defenses. Oh, and he has Micah Parsons, which certainly helps.

The decidedly dour outlook of the Cowboys from oddsmakers right now seems to be – ahem – at odds with the actual state of the team. The Cowboys have legitimate talent, especially after trading for George Pickens, and Prescott’s return is huge.

That’s without even considering the potential pitfalls for the division’s two teams that actually did make the playoffs last year.

The Eagles’ threat of regression is silent, but deadly

Amy team that wins the Super Bowl is destined for regression, and the Eagles especially so. The last time they won the Super Bowl, Philadelphia nearly missed the playoffs entirely, needing to win their final three games to sneak in as the final Wild Card team. And that was under Doug Pederson, a considerably less-caustic personality than Nick Sirianni.

Now, Sirianni is losing his offensive coordinator and replacing him with Kevin Patullo, a longtime assistant with no prior play-calling experience. Kellen Moore had served as a middle man between Sirianni and Jalen Hurts, working as a band aid to a fractured relationship. What happens now that he’s gone?

Then there’s Saquon Barkley. Last year, Barkley was the straw that stirred the drink in Philly, and the oft-injured running back finally enjoyed a healthy season. Still, Barkley’s 378 touches last year were a career high by a wide margin. The odds of Barkley posting another 2,000+ yard rushing season seem incredibly low.

The Eagles also lost multiple starters on defense, including Milton Williams, Josh Sweat, Darius Slay, and C.J. Gardner-Johnson. For the most part, the Eagles are counting on players already on the roster to fill those holes.

The Eagles make plenty of sense as favorites to win the division again, even though the NFC East hasn’t had a repeat winners in nearly two full decades, but a closer look reveals a lot of potential cracks in the armor over in Philadelphia.

Did the Commanders do enough this offseason?

Dan Quinn’s first year back as a head coach went very well, with Washington winning 12 games and reaching the NFC Championship Game. It was easily the best season Commanders fans have enjoyed in decades, but is it sustainable?

Last year’s team was basically all about rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels. The second overall pick threw for 3,500 yards and 25 touchdowns and also ran for 891 yards with six touchdowns. Washington lost three consecutive games in November when Daniels was dealing with an injury, underscoring how reliant the team was on Daniels.

The defense, in particular, was bad. They ranked 23rd in defensive DVOA, just one spot ahead of a Dallas defense that largely underwhelmed. They were especially bad on the ground, as only two other teams surrendered more yards per carry than the Commanders.

Washington has made some flashy moves this offseason, trading for 49ers receiver Deebo Samuel and Texans left tackle Laremy Tunsil, but neither are really home runs in 2025. Samuel has missed time with injuries in recent years, and hasn’t even topped 900 yards receiving since 2021. Meanwhile, Tunsil just played a full season for the first time in his career, but he also led the league in penalties.

It seems as if the Commanders’ plan for 2025 is to build around Daniels and hope he doesn’t go through a sophomore slump. The defense hasn’t added many new faces outside of the draft, while the offense will be relying on several aging stars to turn back the clock.

None of this is to say the Commanders will be bad again this year, but the confidence that betting markets have in them being contenders may be a bit inflated at this moment.