Inside: Key questions, breakout players and positions to watch in the AFC North, plus a look at the Bengals rookie holdout situation.
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AFC North Preview
Would you be surprised to learn that the Browns have never won this division?
Over 35 years have passed since Cleveland last won any division, the longest active streak in the NFL. (And the longest streak in league history, I believe. I won’t confirm for the sake of Browns fans). The team’s four quarterbacks are unlikely to change that in 2025.
Since the AFC North was realigned in 2002, the Steelers lead the way with nine division titles. Baltimore has eight, including last season’s, while the Bengals have six. Here’s how they finished in 2024:
Our latest 2025 division preview covers a group defined by their quarterbacks, for better or worse. (BetMGM’s 2025 regular-season win totals in parentheses.)
Ravens (11.5 wins)
Key question: Can this team limit unnecessary mistakes?
It’s tempting to heap blame on Lamar Jackson, who goes from Josh Allen in the regular season (the two are tied at sixth since 2018 in EPA per dropback) to Tyler Huntley in the playoffs (24th in that same stat), but Jackson often puts the team in a position to win. Isaiah Likely’s toe cost the Ravens in Week 1, while Mark Andrews’s drop on a game-tying 2-point conversion ended their season. They seem to always be that close.
Position to watch: Tight end.
With both Andrews (30 in September) and his talented backup Likely (25 in April) in the final years of their contracts, and beat reporter Jeff Zrebiec noting, “It would be prohibitive for the Ravens to extend both,” their performance this year will determine their respective futures in Baltimore.
Breakout player: TE Isaiah Likely.
Baltimore’s top receiving threat in last year’s postseason, Likely led the team with 7 receptions for 126 yards and a TD across their two playoff games. He looks poised to build on that, with rookie S Malaki Starks saying Likely was the toughest player to cover in practice and HC John Harbaugh setting a goal for Likely to be an All-Pro in 2025. “He’s capable of it,” Harbaugh added.
Better than 2024? Yes.
They avoided another offensive line overhaul by extending LT Ronnie Stanley and LG Patrick Mekari, kept key pieces RB Derrick Henry, CB Marlon Humphrey and S Kyle Hamilton and had one of the league’s best drafts, per Dane Brugler’s draft rankings, where they stocked talent across their defense while fortifying that offensive line. All the annual Super Bowl contenders need to do is stop beating themselves.
Bengals (9.5 wins)
Key question: Can their defense stop anyone?
Longtime coordinator Lou Anarumo was the scapegoat after the team lost six games in which they scored at least 25 points — tied for the most such losses by any team since 2000. The Bengals turned to new DC Al Golden, who helped build Notre Dame’s defense into one of college football’s best and focused his first draft on defense.
Position to watch: Pass rush.
Golden’s tenure may begin without both the Bengals’ best defensive player, the holding-out Trey Hendrickson, and their most promising young replacement, Shemar Stewart (more to come). Former first-round edge Myles Murphy hasn’t impressed despite the extra reps, which makes former third-rounder Joseph Ossai, who had five sacks in the final seven games of 2024, one to monitor.
Breakout player: WR Jermaine Burton.
The first-round talent fell to the third round of 2024’s draft due to character concerns that materialized in year one. Burton missed meetings, practices and a road trip, finishing with four receptions for 107 yards. Total. He’s on thin ice, but so far this time around, Paul Dehner Jr. has spotted the 23-year-old at the facility each day. He’d be an ideal WR3 in this pass-first offense.
Better than 2024? Depends on their start.
Joe Burrow’s emphasizing a strong start for a team that started 1-4 last season, 1-3 in 2023 and 1-2 in 2022. If Cincinnati can translate their late-season success — they won five straight to close 2024 — and improve their defense, this is a dangerous team come playoff time.
Steelers (8.5 wins)
Key question: Can Aaron Rodgers return to form?
I’m skeptical, just as I was when Pittsburgh signed Russell Wilson last offseason. But Rodgers told his new teammates he is all in, with his delayed signing likely related to what he said on the ‘The Joe Rogan Experience” (that several people in his inner circle are battling cancer). He had moments in New York that make me believe that if the 41-year-old can stay healthy, there’s a chance Pittsburgh gets the quarterback play they need.
Here’s one of his first passes to D.K. Metcalf, a pairing that OC Arthur Smith plans to build an offense around.
Aaron Rodgers to DK Metcalf for one of the first times ever in Steelers uniforms: pic.twitter.com/kXOSJW35i5
— Mike DeFabo (@MikeDeFabo) June 10, 2025
Position to watch: Running back.
Rookie third-round pick RB Kaleb Johnson is an ideal fit for Smith’s outside zone scheme, while Jaylen Warren could see an expanded role — he took a majority of the team’s snaps in their playoff game — while continuing to dominate third downs. Their pairing should help Pittsburgh’s run game add an explosive element missing with Najee Harris, whose longest career carry is 37 yards.
Breakout player: TE Pat Freiermuth.
Everyone’s searching for the Steelers’ No. 2 receiver. Here he is. He actually ended 2024 as their No. 1 target, leading the team in every receiving category during the season’s second-half (targets, receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns). Rodgers could help Freiermuth elevate to elite status, so long as Jonnu Smith, reportedly a potential addition, remains in Miami.
Better than 2024? Yes.
Their win total (8.5) suggests decline from last year’s 10-7 finish, but assuming they reach an agreement with holdout T.J. Watt, this defense should be better than it was for last season’s 10-win team thanks to multiple personnel additions and schematic changes. On offense, Johnson is more suited to Smith’s offense than Najee Harris was, Metcalf offers a more reliable option than George Pickens and Rodgers should be an upgrade at quarterback. Still, expecting anything other than the Mike Tomlin special — 10-7 and a first-round exit — is risky.
Browns (4.5 wins)
Key question: How early is this team drafting in 2026?
While the QB foursome of Joe Flacco, Kenny Pickett, Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders makes steady progress, the odds any of them start for Cleveland again after this season are the same as my golfing foursome finishing the day under par. Thankfully, next year’s class appears loaded at quarterback, and the Browns have two first-round picks.
Position to watch: Tight end.
With HC Kevin Stefanski calling plays again, their offense is expected to revert to what worked — two-tight-end sets with a wide zone run game. That should position contract-year tight end David Njoku as the No. 2 option in the passing game, with beat reporter Zac Jackson writing, “A healthy Njoku could easily surpass 100 targets this season.”
Breakout player: WR Cedric Tillman.
After Amari Cooper was traded, Tillman dominated in the full time X receiver role. He averaged 10 targets, 8 receptions and 75 yards across four games before his season ended early with a concussion. The 2023 third-round pick is an ideal fantasy sleeper, with his only notable competition for the WR2 role being Diontae Johnson, who is on his fifth team in two seasons.
Better than 2024? Yes, by default.
It’s difficult for a team that won three games to be worse than the 2024 Browns. Stefanski’s return to a run-first offense with talented rookie runners Quinshon Judkins and Dylan Sampson, together with the steady Flacco at quarterback, should help Cleveland improve despite the league’s second-toughest schedule.
Unpacking the Shemar Stewart situation
These days, contract-related stories are typically limited to veterans like Trey Hendrickson, T.J. Watt and Terry McLaurin, as they hold out for what might be their final big-money deals.
That common practice once included rookies, particularly first-round picks. For instance, Michael Crabtree skipped an entire offseason and the first month of the regular season until the 49ers caved, and John Elway told the Colts he’d rather play baseball.
The rookie wage scale was introduced in 2011 to remove the leverage highly drafted prospects had over their new franchises. To accomplish that, the league fixed rookie salaries to non-negotiable, four-year contracts based on a player’s draft position (teams also have fifth-year options for first-round picks).
It worked, mostly. The number of rookie holdouts plummeted, though as The Athletic’s Jayna Bardahl and Paul Dehner Jr. wrote, these holdouts still happen. Their story explains the kind of minutiae still causing holdouts:
“In 2018, Bears rookie Roquan Smith missed the first two preseason games amid a dispute over a new rule penalizing players who used their helmets to initiate a hit. He eventually signed a contract that protected his guaranteed money if he were to be suspended by the league for an illegal helmet hit.”
This time around, Shemar Stewart, the Bengals’ No. 17 pick, recently left the team’s mandatory minicamp, discontented with the fine print in his contract. Two perspectives:
The 21-year-old edge disagrees with a clause that would allow the Bengals to nullify guaranteed money if he defaults on his contract — for example, by injuring himself during a prohibited activity (like skydiving, maybe), a criminal offense or other conduct detrimental to the team. Lawyers love this stuff.
That language is not unique, with Paul noting that it is often found in rookie contracts — including those of fellow first-round picks. Stewart seems upset that the Bengals had differing language in their prior rookie deals.
Paul explained more in his deep dive into the situation, adding that the difference between Stewart and his peers who were offered the same language is that the others have signed practice waivers, which protects them in the event of injuries suffered in practice prior to signing an actual contract.
Demetrius Knight Jr., the Bengals’ currently unsigned second-round pick, signed the waiver and is shining in camp. Stewart declined the waiver, choosing instead to sit out and speak up:
“I’m not asking for nothing y’all have never done before,” Stewart said to reporters, though it was directed at the Bengals front office. “But in y’all case, y’all just want to win arguments (more) than winning more games.”
The rookie edge rusher’s discontent is part of an ongoing theme for the Bengals management, whom I implore to Google “win-win negotiation.”
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(Photo: Dylan Buell, Justin Berl/ Getty Images)