When Sacramento State this week announced it was leaving the Big Sky for the Big West in 2026, what flashed into my mind was the television show Pawn Stars.

That show’s star is Rick Harrison, who became well known for his “Best I can do …” phrase as he’d toss out lowball offers. A seller would ask for $1,000 for his antique item with Harrison firing back, “Best I can do is $200.”

Sacramento State athletics bet big on itself over the last several months, boasting an NIL war chest in excess of $50 million; hiring big names like Mike Bibby to runs its men’s basketball team with a staff that includes Shaquille O’Neal; and announcing plans for a new football stadium that would cost $450 million.

In doing so, it aimed for an invitation to the Pac-12 in a best-case scenario or the Mountain West as a fallback option. But the market has clearly said, “Best we can do is the Big West.” That can’t be what Sacramento State envisioned when it very publicly starting laying out its athletics plan almost a year ago. And making matters even worse is the fact Sacramento State’s request to join the FBS on football has taken a serious blow.

This week, the NCAA Football Oversight Committee recommended the Division I Council deny the Hornets’ waiver to move to the FBS due to its lack of am invitation from a conference at that level. A final decision is expected in the coming days, with Sacramento State president Luke Wood releasing a strong statement arguing in favor of his football program’s move to the FBS.

It reads, in part: “This is bigger than football. Sacramento State’s move to FBS would be transformative not just for our university, but for our city and our entire region. Major college football in Sacramento would drive economic growth, increase enrollment, attract investment and elevate both school pride and national visibility. Our fans, alumni and city are ready to represent the best of NCAA FBS football. This week, an NCAA committee recommended against granting Sacramento State a waiver to join FBS as an independent.

“The rationale, that a lack of a conference invite ‘signals readiness,’ is flawed. In a normal situation this rationale would make sense, except for we are located in a part of the country that has limited FBS conference options. The only reason we don’t have an invite is geography. Multiple FBS commissioners and presidents who are outside our region have told us directly they would welcome Sacramento State, but cannot make the travel work. Geography should not be a deterrent when a university is in a unique geographic situation.

“The last West Coast school to make the leap was Boise State, nearly 30 years ago. A conference invite is not the right benchmark. Readiness is measured by investment, infrastructure and commitment, and Sacramento State exceeds the standard.”

It was a strong rebuttal. The geography argument is a good one considering that’s no longer a consideration when it comes to conference membership when Cal and Stanford are in the Athletic Coast Conference. Wood went on to call Sacramento “the most underserved sports city in America” as a top-20 media market with more than 2.6 million citizens in the greater Sacramento area, yet one lacking FBS football.

Meanwhile, that Division I Council approved Delaware and Missouri State to move from the FCS to the FBS for the 2025 season where they’ll join Conference USA. Those schools reside in markets with 30,000 and 170,000 people, respectively. I’m not sure how those additions grow the game as much as Sacramento State could. But the SEC and Big Ten, who run college athletics, have made it clear they don’t want more FCS schools joining the FBS, which cuts the revenue into more slices.

The threat from those power conferences kept the MW from adding an FCS football program after it lost five schools to the Pac-12. The league instead added only two football programs in UTEP and Northern Illinois while inviting Grand Canyon and UC Davis as non-football members, the latter addition having to sting Sacramento State as the two campuses are 20 miles away with Sacramento State showing more public ambition in an effort to get an FBS bid.

Extra Points’ Matt Brown reported neither the Pac-12 nor the MW offered an invitation to Sacramento State, adding, “industry sources familiar with conference realignment over the last few months have repeatedly told me that nobody has even come particularly close to inviting Sacramento State, despite the school’s very public campaign.”

The last FCS-to-FBS approval of a school without a conference affiliation was Liberty in 2017. After five years as an independent, Liberty joined C-USA in 2023 and played in the Fiesta Bowl that year after an undefeated regular season. Sacramento State seems to have similar potential if the stadium and NIL money is the real deal. But the Hornets might not get the runway as an FBS independent offered to Liberty eight years ago.

Sacramento State’s predicament underlines the instability of college athletics in the West that has existed since UCLA and USC announced in 2022 they were leaving for the Big Ten. That was the trigger point that rattled the Western part of the United States down to one FBS football conference last season (the MW) when it had three (the MW, Pac-12 and WAC) as recently as 2013. That number will rise to two in 2026 when five MW schools join the Pac-12 in what has been a messy union. And with only two Western-based FBS conferences that don’t include the traditional West Coast powers of UCLA, USC, Washington, Oregon, Arizona, Cal, Stanford, etc., the Sacramento region is a good fit for the FBS.

Whether that offer lies ahead remains unknown as the Pac-12 is still one football-playing full member shy of being an FBS conference but continues to overlook Sacramento State despite having few options, and really none West of Texas. I don’t see the great risk in allowing Sacramento State join the FBS as an independent. Throw in some safeguards when it comes to the construction of the stadium and minimum budget requirements and let’s see what the Hornets can do in the FBS. Bold ambition should be rewarded, not stifled, by the NCAA.

Sports columnist Chris Murray provides insight on Northern Nevada sports. Contact him at crmurray@sbgtv.com or follow him on Twitter @ByChrisMurray.