As we are all aware, Ashton Jeanty is a gifted RB; one that, without playing a single NFL snap, is already touted as one of the best in the league. In 2024, during his Junior year at Boise State, he averaged 196 scrimmage yards per game and over two TDs per game. For those counting, this would be 31.6 fantasy points per game in the NFL. While this production certainly is unattainable at the next level, many are pointing to Jeanty to become the next star rusher in the game. The major question, however, is how possible this will be behind the Raiders’ fragile offensive line. As mentioned in one of my previous articles, RBs need at least the entire side of an offensive line (right or left) to be strong blockers to boost their performance, and without this, it is difficult for them to succeed.
If we take a look at the Raiders’ O-line from 2024, they underperformed at every level, compared to the NFL average (this is looking at fantasy points per carry when following their lead block). The right side of the line, especially, struggled.
In another light, this group of below-average lineman ranked 30th (3rd to last) in the league as far as their lead RB production went. In other words, fantasy points were hard to come by in the Las Vegas backfield. Whether it was in part due to the poor performances of Zamir White and Alexander Mattison, the offensive line did little to help their case.
Unfortunately, the Raiders have done little to address the holes in their line. Looking ahead to the 2025 season at their trenches, we can refer to PFF’s run blocking grades, and their top linemen are as follows:
Left Tackle: Kolton Miller 80.6
Left Guard: Dylan Parham 74.3
Center: Jackson Powers-Johnson 63.9
Right Guard: Alex Cappa 50.5 (new signing)
Right Tackle: DJ Glaze 66.1
Their only new signing in the trenches, Alex Cappa, brings experience to the line, and per ESPN, Cappa ranked 58th in run block win rate among 64 qualifying guards last season. With tackle DJ Glaze rated a 66.1 by PFF, it looks like one half of the line is already doomed for Vegas. The left side looks a bit more promising as far as PFF ratings go. Still, as there are no changes from last season, it is likely that Miller and Parham won’t drastically improve their lead blocking in one year’s time.
But does Jeanty even NEED the help from his O-line? Or is he such a dominant talent that he’ll produce simply on his own? Last season, his top five linemen had an average PFF grade of around 70; while this certainly isn’t on par with the blockers in the NFL, we must consider the difference in overall talent in the college game, especially in a non-Power 5 conference.
With this said, the outlook for Jeanty isn’t looking great from an O-line perspective. While his talent will undoubtedly get him far, there may be a slight learning curve for him in the absence of a talented line. One last thing to consider is the head coach, Pete Caroll. His last three seasons as a head coach for Seattle, Caroll’s lead back took 57.3%, 53.6%, 28.9% of the carries, respectively. With the exception of 2021, when Seattle didn’t have a clear bell cow back, it appears Carroll is of the style to split the carries between his backs. With Raheem Mostert as a new addition to this offense, Jeanty will undoubtedly see some competition there as well.
Long story short, be wary of Jeanty in his first season, especially in redraft leagues. His offensive line and the likely offensive scheme he will be in may prevent him from having an incredible first season.