Baker Mayfield’s 2024 season was a career year by every measure.

He threw for 41 touchdowns, completed 71.4% of his passes, and had a passer rating of 106.8, all while leading Tampa Bay back to the playoffs. As the 2025 season approaches, the question is whether Mayfield can repeat or even come close to that level of scoring production.

Mayfield thrived in key situations in 2024, throwing 24 red-zone touchdowns and another 10 scores on throws of 20+ yards. He excelled at attacking all levels of the field and converting third downs, finishing top five in both third-down completion rate and red-zone efficiency. He had five games with three or more touchdown passes, including dominant outings against New Orleans (Week 6, four TDs), the Chargers (Week 15, four TDs), and Carolina (Week 17, five TDs).

While Mike Evans and Chris Godwin Jr. are returning on a three-year deal, one of the best duos in NFL history remains Mayfield’s most reliable targets. Tampa upgraded its receiving depth this offseason by adding Emeka Egbuka and Tez Johnson in the NFL Draft.

Egbuka gives Mayfield a versatile route-runner with strong hands and the ability to separate quickly, while Johnson brings elite acceleration and deep speed, which will stretch defenses vertically and open up more space for Mayfield to attack underneath and over the top. These additions give Tampa a much more dynamic and layered receiving corps, allowing Mayfield to distribute the ball more evenly and keep defenses guessing, after a major drop off of production by the depth in 2024, after Evans and Godwin Jr went down with injury.

The Bucs face several teams in 2025 that struggled against the pass last season, including the Panthers, Patriots, and Cardinals, all of whom ranked in the bottom five in passing touchdowns allowed in 2024. Shootout matchups with high-powered teams like Detroit and Houston also increase Mayfield’s opportunities to throw early and often, and with a revamped offense, the team is equipped to keep up with the league’s best.

Final Prediction: 44 Passing Touchdowns