Catch up on previous 2025 opponent previews!
The modern college football climate has done a good job of perceptions that were established over the previous 130 years of the sport. AD and fan patience with a four-year build? Not really a thing any more. Recruiting kids to get developed over two years and start their last two years? Deemphasized. “Year Zero” situations where whatever happens in the first year shouldn’t count towards anything due to the depths of despair a program has fallen in? Barring some death-penalty adjacent action, not really a thing!
No, given the liquidity of personnel, almost any team that’s serious in its spending can flip an awful team to a brand new team that, yes, can still stink, but…like…stink in new and exciting ways with different people! Or make a huge leap, such as Indiana last year.
So then we get to Auburn and…yeah man, I think the collective Auburn arms are crossed fairly tightly at this point:
Auburn’s Historical SP+ Performance
Now, clearly the quality of the team is getting better. But the wins? Hmm.
In 2023, Freeze’s Auburn Tigers went on a 3-game winning streak, then a 4-game losing streak, followed by a 3-game winning streak, and concluded with a 3-game losing streak. And it isn’t rocket surgery to figure out how the wins and losses were doled out:
Auburn vs. SP+ Top 25: 0-6
Auburn vs. Everyone Else: 6-1
The worst part, however, was that Freeze is considered an offensive genius who is custom built to beat Nick Saban while gacking away a few games that his teams absolutely should not lose. Well…
Auburn’s offense ranked 68th in SP+ and was barely better than fellow SEC offensive doormats Mississippi State (77th) and Vanderbilt (80th)
He lost to New Mexico State at home. Arguably the best New Mexico State team ever, but still New Mexico State. At home.
Alabama beat Auburn in 2023 (and Nick Saban promptly retired).
So Auburn got all the bad stuff with none of the good in Year One. But hey, that’s ok, first year jitters and such, surely he turned it around in 2024!
2024 Auburn Schedule Results
The defense was demonstrably better while the offense improved slightly…into similar territory as vaunted…uh…Cal and New Mexico offenses? And worse than Vanderbilt!
And while every college football team is different from week to week, Auburn took that philosophy to heart and cranked it to “11”, featuring a season where scored three touchdowns combined against California and Vanderbilt and then beat the SP+ 13th ranked team in the country 43-41 in four overtimes.
I mean…seriously…how does the same team do this?
Number of games where Auburn scored more than 21 points: 5 (all wins)
Number of games where Auburn scored 21 or fewer: 7 (all losses)
Anyway, we now live in world where Auburn went from having their first losing season in 11 years to have back-to-back losing seasons within two years of the aforementioned milestone, from the hottest coach of 2014 who went through a “rehab stint” at a Liberty squad that is lightyears ahead of it’s Conference USA peers.
Surprised? Couldn’t be me!
It’s now Year Three and Hugh Freeze is recruiting and portalling like it’s 2017, insisting on slowly building through elite recruiting while trying to find impact additions through the portal and missing way more than hitting. While I do appreciate a throwback to program building where you take the traditional four-year approach, I’m not sure how many Auburn decision makers and fans are thrilled with 11 wins in 2 years while sitting at 2-games under .500, especially given the salary ($6.7m per year!). But Auburn might be stuck with him through at least this year given the outrageous buyout ($20m!) featuring no mitigation clauses (meaning, even if he got another job in football, Auburn would still owe him everything remaining on his contract). Yikes.
Then again, this is Auburn. They’ll happily throw away $20+m if you can’t beat Bama or get to 8 wins.
Coaching Staff
John Reed-Imagn Images
Hugh Freeze – 3rd Year – 6-7 (3-5)
Last year I said all I needed to say about why Hugh Freeze sucks as a human being. I’ll put the summary here:
People are complex and far from perfect, I understand that. But to be so vocal about one’s religion and make claims of one’s own purity or upstanding nature while tutting those who fail to meet that standard…and then turn around and operate well outside NCAA rules in building its incredible Ole Miss rosters from 2013-2015? And then vocally blaming the coach that came before you for said recruiting violations? That seems particularly devious! And while I’m on the record for not caring about cheating in recruiting, it’s not great to cite examples of upstanding nature and adhering to religious teachings of honesty and goodwill while doing the opposite at your job, blaming others for that activity, and utilizing escort services.
But if you can win football games you can do whatever you want, so it doesn’t really matter in the end.
And I think that last part is the most important here: he’s not winning very many football games. Or, rather, not enough to stay employed at Auburn long term. So, to me, the pressure is on for Hugh Freeze to break into the double digit win territory, or at least beat Bama for the first time since 2019.
Assistant Staff
2025 Auburn Assistant Staff
Only one new face among the Auburn assistant staff with the addition of former Georgia Southern Head Coach – and most recently the special teams coordinator at Florida Atlantic – Chad Lunsford to coordinate special teams.
I do find it interesting in who a coach hires and/or promotes and trying to read the tea leaves on staff management is one of my most arm-chair analyst traits in my toolkit.
You know how Barry Odom had a tough time bringing in a coaching staff and so it felt like he wound up with washouts and also-rans who took the first ticket out of there? Because, ya know, the university campus was tumultuous when he took over and he didn’t have nearly the monetary investment that Drinkwitz had? Yeah…that’s how you end up with perpetual-one-year-flight-risk Greg Brown as your (one year!) secondary coach, and defensive line coach who had the job for less than 30 days, and a “never been an offensive coordinator before” Derek Dooley as your OC.
So when I see that Freeze promote not one but three low-level analysts – with very short resumes, mind you – to position coaches at the conclusion of the ‘23 season, it makes me wonder if a.) other coaches in the business are staying away from the Freeze staff. Or, conversely and more positively, b.) he’s willing to take a chance on younger guys who are struggling to find gigs at power schools.
Given the fact that he preaches forgiveness in the public defense of hiring fellow piece of crap D.J. Durkin, I’m feeling like it’s a little bit of “A” mixed in with a little bit of “this guy is washed up and I don’t want to work for him”.
Checks clear, though. Auburn always follows through on that aspect, anyway.
Roster Movement
2025 Auburn Transfer Portal Losses
Auburn endured an exodus of 23 players at the conclusion of the 2023 season, and followed up with 26 additional portal losses once their turd of a ‘24 season concluded. That’s 49 players out in two years! And these aren’t all lateral transfers or players going down a level: Iowa, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, Ole Miss, Virginia Tech, Utah, Arkansas…these are legit programs that the Tiger transfers are landing on.
And even when they’re not landing at major power programs…can you imagine thinking that Purdue is a better team to play for than Auburn?
2025 Auburn Transfer Portal Additions
If you know anything about Auburn’s transfer class it’s probably because of Oklahoma transfer Jackson Arnold. The last time Mizzou fans were in the company of Mr. Arnold he was busy getting mollywhopped by the Missouri defensive line…and basically every defense he played against, as OU’s offensive line was porous, at best. But Freeze’s staff also got busy importing some new offensive tackles – specifically starters from USC and Virginia Tech – as well as beefing up the interior of their defensive line. Last year’s 14-man transfer class didn’t have nearly the impact needed (especially on offense) and, subsequently, many of last year’s transfer-in class are now part of this year’s transfer-out class. For Auburn’s sake, let’s hope this 19-man import can provide the flash in quality that’s badly needed on The Plains.
2025 Auburn High School Recruiting Class
The good news for the Auburn faithful is that Freeze can still recruit high school at an elite level. Holding on to said high schoolers is a different issue but, still, the elite recruiting schools are still the ones progressing through the Playoff so high school additions are still important. And bringing in the 8th best class in the nation (5th in the SEC) is excellent work, even by Auburn standards.
Offense
Last year’s Auburn offense was wholly mediocre in the oddest way possible. Could they move the ball? Heck yes they could! A respectable 42nd in success rate, while ranking 31st in rushing the ball and 56th when throwing. Were the explosive? Hoo boy yeah they were! 24th in explosive plays, 8th in yards per successful play, and 7th in the nation in generating plays that go 20+ yards.
So why did they rank 63rd in the nation?
Glad you asked!
Average starting field position? Bad, finishing 91st in the nation with an average starting field position of their own 28-yard line. Points per scoring opportunity? Abysmal, averaging 3 points per scoring opportunity (for comparison sake, Mizzou was at 4.2 for the year). Turnovers? One of the worst in the country at -2.3 expected turnover margin and somehow being WORSE than even that low bar expected, finishing at -9.
And, oh yeah, one of the worst offenses in allowing havoc to opposing defenses, having bottom 100 sack rates per pressure allowed and getting wiped out in downs where the defense is inclined to blitz.
Now, Auburn looks to try again with the same coaching staff in place while replacing every quarterback who attempted a throw, one of the best running backs in the SEC, two of their top three receivers, and two starting offensive linemen.
Quarterback
Well this looks familiar
Photo by Ed Zurga/Getty Images
Jackson Arnold Stats
To be clear, I still think that Jackson Arnold has all the talent in the world to be a legit, elite-tier quarterback in college. The question, then, was how much of his struggles last year due to an incompetent offensive line, and is that one year of being a walking punching bag enough to activate the Blaine Gabbert Syndrome where QBs start feeling phantom pressure, solely because they’re used to defenders getting free shots on every play.
If Arnold winds up not being the guy, Auburn also imported a quarterback that I really like, former Stanford signal-caller Ashton Daniels. Daniels is incredibly mobile and, while his accuracy stinks and he loves to throw interceptions, would provide a nice extra threat in the QB run game that Freeze has found success in before.
Running Back
Photo by Douglas Stringer/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Auburn Returning Rushing Stats
Damari Alston is the leading returning rusher who was on the team last year, but in terms of the entire roster, transfer QBs Ashton Daniels and Jackson Arnold lead the pack, with UConn transfer running back Durrell Robinson coming in third. Robinson is very intriguing as he was the third option in UConn’s run-heavy attack but finished with the best yards per carry (6.8), success rate (50%), rushes of 10+ yards (20.6%), and yards before contact (3.7) and after contact (3.3). If that translates to the SEC he’ll become a menace quickly.
Receivers
Photo by Steve Limentani/ISI Photos/Getty Images
Auburn Returning Receiving Stats
Auburn was 7th in the nation in passes targeting their slot receiver (47.6% of all targets!) and 100+ in targeting outside receivers (102nd), tight ends (103rd), and running backs (115th). It wasn’t supposed to be that way: they portalled in a lot of receiver talent to make sure that didn’t happen, but none of them were able to rise to the occasion and offer enough of a target for the beleaguered Peyton Thorne to throw to. So now they’re all gone and Auburn has brought in three new receivers: big outside receivers in Eric Singleton, Jr. (Georgia Tech), Horatio Fields (Wake Forest), and Preston Howard (Maryland). They’re not household names by any stretch but they are big, and if they can take attention away from five-star phenom Cam Coleman in the slot then maybe the Auburn passing game can be more of a threat.
Offensive Line
Photo by John Cordes/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Auburn Returning Offensive Line Stats
The Auburn offense line was Top 15 in the country in run blocking and 59th in pressures allowed. So, to shore up their pass rush sets, they went out and poached two starting offensive tackles: Mason Murphy from USC and Xavier Chaplin from Virginia Tech. The problem? Despite tons of experience, Murphy and Chaplin were some of the worst guys on their respective former line units in pass protection, while being pretty good at run blocking. Now, if this is Freeze simply doubling down on running the ball, sure go ahead I get it. But in terms of fixing issues this doesn’t quite hit the mark.
….and, yes, if you are paying attention I just cited a transfer as the most important player to look for at every level of this offense. Yikes.
Defense
Here’s what I said about D.J. Durkin and Auburn last year:
Auburn’s defense should make a leap this year, and regardless of how terrible a human being he is, Durkin usually fields good defenses, regardless of location or resources. If the offense is held back by anything this year he should be in place to deploy a defense that can at least hold the line for most of their games.
Nailed that one.
Auburn Returning Defensive Stats
Auburn finished 18th in defensive SP+, 27th in overall success rate, 28th against the run, 36th against the pass, and were Top 20 in pressure rate.
There are two problems, as I see it:
They weren’t very havoc-y, ranking 82nd in overall havoc rate
Five of their top eight tacklers are gone.
Now, to the former, that might not be a bad thing. Havoc-forward defenses tend to give up a lot of big plays, too, and that’s the last thing a struggling offense needs. Indeed, Durkin’s defenses at A&M tended to prioritize big plays – both created and allowed – and in one year he was able to transform Auburn into a bend-don’t-break unit that could drop back, allow a play to develop, and then snuff it out before too much damage is caused. You can’t argue with Top 20 results, anyway.
But to the second issue, Auburn got very hipster in the transfer portal, bringing in impact players from Ball State, Florida A&M, Western Kentucky, Sam Houston, and Tulane to fill out their ranks and help replenish the lost production. I have no idea if that many FCS/G5 callups can also produce at an SEC level but I’m glad their getting a chance and I’m fascinated what a truly awful person/talented defensive coordinator can do with them.
So what does it all mean?
2025 Auburn Schedule
Don’t be thinking about merely achieving a winning record, that’s not going to fly here.
Look at this schedule and tell me if there are eight wins on there.
Auburn will be heavily favored against Mercer, Ball State, South Alabama, and Kentucky. That’s four wins.
They will most likely be severe underdogs against Alabama, Georgia, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma due to them being on the road. That’s four losses.
So now the Tigers of the Plains need to win their four toss-ups against Baylor on the road, Missouri at home, Arkansas on the road, and Vanderbilt on the road. That’s a lot of “on the road” I just typed out. Do you see a brand new offense and a rebuilt defense winning four toss ups, with three being at other stadiums? I’m not sure about that.
As for Missouri, Auburn will be looking for some vengeance back in their home stadium and this has the makings of yet another close game, with potentially a bad ending. I know I just mentioned above how many holes are getting papered over with portal additions but it’s hard to win on the road, especially for Drinkwitz, and this could register as a “body blow” theory game after Missouri just played Alabama. Then again, if we do subscribe to that theory, Auburn will most likely be going through the same after a tilt with Georgia.
It’s hard to prognosticate this far in advance but I’d go ahead and lock this in as one of the more heart-attack inducing games of the year.