NFL quarterbacks are subject to some of the most scrutiny in professional sports. Quarterbacks on new teams, even more so. Quarterbacks who either left playoff teams or end up with Pete Carroll in Las Vegas – well, you get the picture.

It’s no surprise Geno Smith and Sam Darnold are interesting points of conversation this offseason. And yet, the specifics of their respective conversations are…weird.

In general – in case you’ve somehow missed it – the Seattle Seahawks have been slammed for allowing Geno Smith to take off, while the media simultaneously doubts Darnold will be anywhere near as effective this season due to his inability to play under pressure.

Obviously the way the season ended for the Minnesota Vikings looks bad, but I wonder if it has drastically skewed the Darnold Perspective.

But the equation that has led to these conclusions might be altogether false.

The equation is: Seattle OL bad + Geno Smith good under pressure = average team.
Whereas: Seattle OL bad + Sam Darnold dreadfully horrible under pressure = abysmal 2025 outlook.

Statistical Analysis

The “under pressure” conversation is weird because the numbers just don’t hold up.

Here is a baseline, using Smith’s past three seasons in Seattle, and Darnold’s 2024 season.

Geno Smith’s QBR: 62.8 in ‘22, to 59.5 in ‘23, to 53.8 in ‘24. A three-year decline. His Interception percentage also jumped from 1.9% to 2.6% over that span. To his credit, Smith’s Bad Throw Percentage dropped to 10.4%, impressive and the best mark of his career.

On the other hand, Sam Darnold’s 2024 QBR was 60.4, the highest of his career. We’re just going to inform you now that nearly every good number is the best of Darnold’s career and not type it every single time. His INT% was 2.2, better than Smith. His on target percentage was 77.7%, not as good as Smith’s 81.8% last year but better than Smith in 2021 or 2023.

Why choose all these accuracy, percentage and total QBR numbers?

Specifically because of the previously mentioned conversation that when Darnold is pressured he turns into a pumpkin.

Because last year Darnold was pressured on 24.5% of his dropbacks. Smith was pressured on only 21.9%, the least-pressured of his entire Seattle career. All while Darnold hit career numbers in everything and Smith just played arguably his worst season in Seattle.

If Geno does to hang his hat on something, his yards per scramble was ridiculous last year, jumping all the way up to 10.7 Y/Scr, which shattered any previous mark by either quarterback.

But again, from an accuracy under pressure perspective….

I keep seeing that Sam Darnold is highly impacted by pressure.

OL Pass Blocking Efficiency Rankings 2024
32nd – Seahawks
30th – Vikings

QB ranking under pressure
6th – Geno Smith
8th – Sam Darnold

When blitzed
9th – Geno Smith
10th – Sam Darnold

Vikings had 2 good tackles (1… pic.twitter.com/fpeeJJkMtn

— Brian Nemhauser (@hawkblogger) March 8, 2025

Not that different.

Recency bias because of the final two Minnesota games, including the playoff loss? Probably. It’s also probably because national media is often two or three years behind players that didn’t enter the league as a superstar. Geno finally became embraced, now he’s gone, just in time for the media to be mad at the Seahawks.

My point is certainly not as bland as Sam Darnold is better than Geno Smith. My point is two-fold. One is not a large purpose of this article; but it is that the conversation should start with the defense, the strength of the team anyway. We don’t need PFF to hop on YouTube and try to explain how Darnold and Cooper Kupp can replace Smith and DK Metcalf. If Seattle is to be good, it will begin with the defense, so discuss the team appropriately.

Second, is that I believe the most likely scenario is that Schneider did it again. I sense Geno Smith will at best play up to one of the previous Seattle seasons, and that this will prove to be another trade that was the right time to move on. By end of season, the gap between Smith and Darnold will not be 20 quarterbacks. It may not even be 10.