Inside: Key questions, breakout players and positions to watch in the AFC West.

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AFC West Preview

The quarterbacks steal the headlines, but the defenses in this division — where three teams finished top-five in points allowed — deserve more love.

The Raiders were the lone exception in 2024, though Pete Carroll’s penchant for developing defensive backs and emphasis on defense-first football should begin moving them closer to their rivals.

Carroll’s addition makes this the winningest division of coaches in NFL history. You might cite the 1983 NFC East — which included Tom Landry, Joe Gibbs and Bill Parcells — as the closest comparison, but at the time, that division’s coaches had won a combined 283 games (and even those mostly came from Landry, as Gibbs and Parcells were early in their careers).

Nothing compares to this juggernaut of a division with Andy Reid, Sean Payton, Jim Harbaugh and Carroll, which has a staggering career win total of 668 regular-season games. The Athletic’s Nick Kosmider examined the numbers behind this legendary foursome, where the average age is 65.5.

Carroll has never won fewer than seven games since his first year as a head coach. In 1994. Harbaugh’s never had a losing season as an NFL coach. Payton’s worst career finish was 7-9.

All need to get past Reid, who has won this division for nine straight seasons along the way to making five of the past six Super Bowls. Let’s preview the AFC West. (BetMGM’s 2025 regular-season win totals in parentheses.)

Chiefs (11.5 wins)

Key question: Was their 2024 success a fluke, or was the Super Bowl the outlier?

Kansas City went 12-0 in one-score games last season, a record that began after an Isaiah Likely toe cost the Ravens a chance at overtime. That run of good fortune continued until the Super Bowl, when their blowout 40-22 loss to the Eagles exposed this offensive line (six sacks allowed despite zero blitzes) and might have shared the blueprint for stopping Kansas City.

Position to watch: Left tackle.

2024 second-round pick Kingsley Suamataia, last year’s expected starter, was awful (his PFF grade ranked 136th of 140 tackles), forcing Kansas City to eventually move former G Joe Thuney there. That weakened the interior line and run game. An overhaul came this offseason, with former 49ers backup Jaylon Moore signed for two years and Ohio State’s talented (but injured) Josh Simmons drafted in the first round.

Breakout player: S Jaden Hicks. 

I was surprised the Chiefs let versatile safety Justin Reid sign with the Saints this offseason, given how vital he had been to DC Steve Spagnuolo’s scheme. Then I learned more about Hicks, and it all made sense. The Athletic’s Dane Brugler graded the Washington State product as the 39th overall prospect and the best safety in the 2024 class, yet he somehow fell to Kansas City in the fourth round. He showed enough promise as a rookie (one start, three INTs and a PFF grade that ranked top 40) that the 28-year-old Reid was expendable.

Better than 2024? Probably not in the win-loss columns, but maybe on the field itself. 

They might not win 15 regular-season games again, but Rashee Rice’s return, their left tackle competition and overall focus on fixing the offensive line suggest to me that the combination of Reid, Mahomes and Spangoulo is one you still won’t want to see come playoff time. Will Travis Kelce’s likely last dance end in a Super Bowl? I’m skeptical, but this isn’t a team to bet against.

Broncos (9.5 wins)

Key question: Is their run game improved? 

I had to triple check their rushing numbers from 2024. Javonte Williams led the team with 8.2 carries per game. Their running backs had one more touchdown (seven) than fumbles (six). 2025’s new-look backfield has nowhere to go but up, with second-round pick RJ Harvey and free agent signing J.K. Dobbins expected to pair in the Alvin Kamara-Mark Ingram style that Payton covets.

And fear not, fantasy GMs. Beat reporter Nick Kosmider explains in his Broncos mailbag that the Dobbins signing “had nothing to do with a souring outlook on Harvey. If anything, Harvey has exceeded expectations.”

Position to watch: Linebacker.

Late last season, teams figured out Denver’s stout defense, exploiting a weakness in the middle of the field (like when the Bills rushed 44 times for 210 yards in their playoff meeting). The Broncos wisely addressed that in free agency, most notably with two former 49ers in LB Dre Greenlaw and S Talanoa Hufanga. When healthy — Greenlaw is already sidelined with a quad injury — they should pair with Alex Singleton, who missed most of 2024 with a torn ACL, to make last year’s weakness a strength.

Breakout player: WR Marvin Mims Jr. 

A gadget player with excellent hands, he is an All-Pro returner but could blossom into a high-level receiver this year. Payton gave the 2023 second-round pick a more consistent role on offense from Week 13 to 18, and Mims responded with a breakout performance of 23 catches, 431 yards and five touchdowns during the final five games. Mims also made me yell, “**** **** ****,” after he made the best catch of 2024.

Better than 2024? Yes. 

A more comfortable Bo Nix is surrounded by more explosive weapons in Harvey and Dobbins, an improved Mims, TE Evan Engram and one of the league’s best offensive lines. The Broncos’ needs on defense were also filled, and if Nix continues to progress, this team could go further than most expect.

Chargers (9.5 wins)

Key question: Is the interior of their offensive line fixed?

What HC Jim Harbaugh and GM Joe Hortiz accomplished in year one was remarkable, though holes remained. Their second offseason was spent patching, though beat reporter Daniel Popper has noted there’s still room to improve the interior of their offensive line after RG Mekhi Becton was signed. “I think we are going to be seeing a bunch of different combinations at center and left guard,” wrote Daniel.

Position to watch: Receiver.

Outside of Ladd McConkey, Chargers receivers offered little for Justin Herbert. That’s what happens when your No. 2 receiver is Quentin Johnston. Determined to change that in 2025, the Chargers drafted two receivers — contested-catch winner Tre Harris in the second round and clear-out option KeAndre Lambert-Smith three rounds later — and re-signed Mike Williams to play the X. Daniel’s post-draft Chargers depth chart evidences the plethora of new options.

Breakout player: TE Oronde Gadsden II.

Who? You might not be familiar with the fifth-round tight end from Syracuse. But Gadsden is the first rookie to make me break my rule against listing rookies as breakout players. The hype is just too much. “I really think he’s going to ascend quickly,” said OC Greg Roman. Gadsden is “looking like a genuine playmaker for Herbert and the Chargers’ passing game,” wrote Daniel, who has repeatedly listed Gadsden as a standout in spring practices due to his ability to win at all three levels.

Better than 2024? Yes. 

If their interior offensive line is solidified, there are few reasons to doubt year two of the Harbaugh-in-L.A. show. It might be the deepest collection of talent that this team has had in years.

Raiders (6.5 wins)

Key question: They landed big names, but is this roster good enough to compete? 

Probably not yet. The new era has made headlines for the Geno Smith trade and the savvy hires of GM John Spytek, HC Pete Carroll and OC Chip Kelly. Their 11 draft picks, including cornerstone RB Ashton Jeanty, should play vital roles. But scroll through their depth chart. Despite improving more than any other team, this is still a six-win roster.

Position to watch: Offensive line.

Smith went from one wretched line in Seattle to another in Las Vegas, where the Raiders invested minimally. Despite fielding one of the league’s worst units in 2024, their biggest move was signing former Bengals G Alex Cappa. This weakness can be mitigated with more 12 personnel, thanks to their young, highly drafted tight ends Brock Bowers and Michael Mayer, but the Raiders also need OC Chip Kelly and OL coach Brennan Carroll, Pete’s son, to develop the line, particularly for run blocking.

Breakout player: WR Dont’e Thornton Jr. 

Another rookie to watch, this 6-foot-5 receiver has 4.3 speed, inevitably leading to comparisons with DK Metcalf. I ignored those comparisons until Thorton was praised by coaches, teammates and the media after minicamp. Already running with the first-team offense (ahead of the earlier drafted Jack Bech), Thorton looks like the Raiders’ starting X receiver as early as Week 1.

Better than 2024? Yes, but tamper expectations. 

Big changes afloat in Las Vegas, but the headlines overlook the details that plague this roster. The upgrades at quarterback and throughout the coaching staff should help this team win at least six games, and if DT Christian Wilkins — who is still not practicing after suffering a Jones fracture last October — returns to form, they could surprise. But I’m not expecting a Chargers-like playoff surprise from Carroll’s Raiders. Ashton Jeanty is human, after all.

Extra Points

Tom Moore, one of the best NFL assistant coaches in history, arrives to the Buccaneers office at 3:15 a.m. That’s one part of the 86-year-old’s routine that’s led to his unique relationship with Bucky Irving, the 22-year-old sophomore running back who led all rookies in rushing yards last season.

You’ll be glad you read Dan Pompei’s profile on the pair.

Monday’s most-clicked: Takeaways from spring practices for all 32 teams.

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(Photo: Otto Greule Jr / Getty Images)