Arguably, Houston’s toughest two-game stretch of the season will come in a four-day span at Kansas City and then home against Baltimore on Christmas day. The Texans, too, might be without linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair for one of both of those games after he was handed a three-game suspension by the NFL on Tuesday (Al-Shaair is appealing) for his hit on Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence and the melees that followed.

Also, Hall of Fame football scribe John McClain recently noted on HoustonTexans.com how the Jaguars’ collapse in 2023 – from 8-3 to out of the playoffs – concluded in Week 18 on the road against the Titans, who at that point were on a three-game losing streak but won, 28-20, to knock Jacksonville out of the playoffs.

The reality check here is The Athletic’s odds give the Texans a 96 percent chance to win the AFC South. The Colts’ most likely path to the playoffs still is through beating Denver, then having the Broncos lose one more time down the stretch. But the cement is not dry on the AFC South just yet.

Since the Broncos, Texans and Ravens are on a bye, there’s not a ton to root for from an Indianapolis viewpoint in our first weekend without Colts football since Labor Day. But there are some games that could have ripple effects on the AFC playoff race to keep an eye on:

Jets (3-9) at Dolphins (5-7), 1 p.m.: A Miami win here keeps Mike McDaniel’s team very much alive in the AFC playoff race, setting up a massive game for the Dolphins – and Texans – in Week 15. The Colts, of course, own the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Dolphins by virtue of their Week 7 win, and if the Colts win their remaining games, Miami cannot finish with a better record.

Browns (3-9) at Steelers (9-3), 1 p.m.: In the unlikely event the Steelers get dragged into a wild card race, the Colts’ Week 4 win would earn them the head-to-head tiebreaker over Pittsburgh. The Steelers have a tough remaining schedule after hosting the Browns: at Philadelphia, at Baltimore, vs. Kansas City and vs. Cincinnati.

Bills (10-2) at Rams (6-6), 4:25 p.m.: Since the Colts need to beat the Broncos and still have them lose another game, it wouldn’t hurt for Denver’s season finale against the Chiefs to matter for their opponent. How do the Bills play into this? Since Buffalo owns the head-to-head tiebreaker over Kansas City, if the Bills are one game behind or tied with the Chiefs going into Week 18, Patrick Mahomes & Co. would be playing for home field advantage and a first-round bye against the Broncos. However, if Kansas City is two games up on Buffalo heading into Week 18, that game against the Broncos wouldn’t matter and we may not see many, if any, of the Chiefs’ starters.

Chargers (8-4) at Chiefs (11-1), 8:20 p.m.: Jim Harbaugh’s Chargers have won five of their last six games but won’t have anything come easy to them in the next three weeks, starting with their Sunday night matchup with the Chiefs. After that, Los Angeles hosts the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-6) on Dec. 15 and then the Broncos four days later in a game that was flexed into Thursday Night Football. They finish the season with road games at New England (3-10) and Las Vegas (2-10). While it might not look like the Chargers could get sucked into a race for the final AFC wild card spot, the next three games should be telling.

Bengals (4-8) at Cowboys (5-7), 8:15 p.m. Monday: Another likely low-impact game, but thinking ahead to the need for Denver to lose again if the Colts win in Week 15, a motivated and still-alive Bengals team could make things difficult for the Broncos at Paycor Stadium in Week 17.