Inside: Key questions, breakout players and positions to watch in the AFC East, plus Ndamukong Suh’s take on the rookie wage scale.

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AFC East Preview

The floor of this division, which one might call the New York Jets, is higher in 2025. But can anyone catch Josh Allen and the Bills, winners of every AFC East crown since Tom Brady left for Tampa Bay?

It wasn’t close in 2024:

Buffalo’s five-year division title streak trails only Kansas City (who else!) as the NFL’s longest active such streak. We’ll start today’s preview with the Bills.

(BetMGM’s 2025 expected regular-season win totals in parentheses, and all stats per TruMedia unless otherwise noted.)

Bills (11.5 wins)

Key question: Can they finally win the AFC?

That’s code for “Can they beat the Chiefs in the playoffs?” The Bills, now 0-4 against postseason Patrick Mahomes, lost three of those games by a combined 12 points. To avoid another heartbreaking ending, Buffalo needs its defense to keep up.

Position to watch: The entire defense. 

A penchant for turnovers (32 total, third-best) masked this unit’s struggles on third down, as they finished 32nd in opponent third-down passing conversion rate, allowing opposing passers to convert third downs at a league-high 42.9 percent clip. Free agent signings along their defensive line and in their secondary, plus a defense-heavy draft class, should change that.

Position to watch: Running back.

There’s more to this group than James Cook’s potential hold-in, as sophomore Ray Davis showed a three-down skillset that Buffalo seems to think Cook lacks (Cook played 47 percent of snaps in 2024, splitting time with Davis and Ty Johnson). When Cook missed Week 6, Davis took 23 touches for 152 yards.

Given the 26-year-old Cook’s role and GM Brandon Beane’s history — he’s never offered a rookie-contract runner an extension — I’m skeptical we see a long-term deal, meaning Buffalo should give Davis more opportunities in 2025.

Breakout player: WR Joshua Palmer. 

Keon Coleman is a more intriguing breakout candidate, but Palmer could have a better 2025. The former Charger is still ascending (he’s only 25) after signing for $36 million to fill the needed Z-receiver role. Don’t take my word for it. Here’s beat reporter Joe Buscaglia on Buffalo’s receiver room:

“Palmer is exactly what the Bills lacked in their offense last year. He’s a route-running technician specializing in separation and has enough speed to push down the field for deeper targets. His ability to separate could also translate into more production than people currently expect from him.”

Meanwhile, Coleman struggled to separate in 2024 and had an inconsistent minicamp this offseason.

Better than 2024? Yes. 

Their offensive continuity and defensive improvements make for a stronger overall roster. While they had the talent to beat Kansas City in last year’s AFC Championship game, they might now have the defensive line and secondary needed to finally slay that proverbial dragon.

Dolphins (8.5 wins)

Key question: Can HC Mike McDaniel save his job with a playoff win? 

That’s probably what it takes. Search “Dolphins playoff win” and you’ll be transported back to 2000, as Miami hasn’t won one in nearly a quarter-century. Despite two playoff appearances in three years together, time might be running out for the computer engineer of a coach and GM Chris Grier.

Position to watch: Safety. 

“Chess piece” Jalen Ramsey was swapped for the cheaper, younger Minkah Fitzpatrick. Ramsey didn’t want to stay in Miami anyway, making this a coup for Grier. Fitzpatrick rarely made splash plays in Pittsburgh, but still offers a reliable, talented option for a safety group that lost Jevon Holland to free agency. There’s a chance DC Anthony Weaver helps Fitzpatrick return to an All-Pro level.

Breakout player: Edge Chop Robinson. 

Their 2024 first-round pick had a mid-year breakout last season, recording six sacks and 45 QB pressures from Weeks 9 to 18. His pressure rate (17.2 percent) tied Nick Bosa for third among players with 300-plus pass-rush snaps, behind only Myles Garrett and Micah Parsons. Robinson should become a well-known name this year.

Better than in 2024? No. 

Even if replacing Ramsey and Jonnu Smith with Fitzpatrick and Waller is a wash, losing trench veterans DE Calais Campbell and LT Terron Armstead is a net negative. The return of edge Jaelen Phillips and Bradley Chubb gives Miami an imposing defensive line, but their questionable secondary and weak OL are two reasons why I don’t expect a Dolphins playoff win this season.

Patriots (8.5 wins)

Key question: Does Drake Maye have enough weapons in the passing game?

After fielding the league’s worst receiving corps in 2024, New England added a 31-year-old coming off an ACL tear (Stefon Diggs), Mack Hollins and third-round pick Kyle Williams, a deep threat who was one of the best schematic fits in the draft. They should be better.

Position to watch: Offensive line. 

Early camp reports do not sound promising for the revamped unit, with beat reporter Chad Graff citing its struggles throughout the spring when listing it as the Patriots’ lingering question.

Breakout unit: Patriots defense. 

Offseason additions like DT Milton Williams and the return of DT Christian Barnmore are two reasons why this group could become a force in Mike Vrabel’s first season. After seeing The Athletic’s film guru Ted Nguyen list New England first among defenses primed to break out, I couldn’t justify naming just one player here.

Better than 2024? Of course.

No team saw their projected win total increase more than the Patriots, who lost six one-score games last season and then improved in nearly every facet. It could be a quick turnaround, especially with the league’s second-easiest schedule (thanks to the Jets and Dolphins, plus games against the AFC North and NFC South). Ten wins? Possible. 

Jets (5.5 wins)

Key question: How does this implode? 

I asked the same question last year, as New York seemed primed to build off 2023’s Zach Wilson-led 7-10 finish. They somehow got more dysfunctional while extending their playoff drought to 14 years.

Position to watch: Running back. 

It’s no secret that the Jets offense plans to run the ball a lot, but we still don’t know how this talented backfield will split. RB Breece Hall is ready for a three-down role, but with OC Tanner Engstrand hailing from Detroit, The Athletic’s Jets beat reporter Zack Rosenblatt suspects that Hall plays the Jahmyr Gibbs role, with Braelon Allen as the David Montgomery-type. Expect their quarterback to run plenty, too. Speaking of …

Breakout player: QB Justin Fields. 

His no-nonsense approach is winning over teammates and coaches, but can it translate to on-field success? If they add a No. 2 receiver, this might be the best supporting cast of the former Bear’s career, which gives the 26-year-old a chance to consistently play to the potential he’s flashed.

Better than 2024? Not sure. Leaning on a run game built behind an above-average offensive line and a defense that should bounce back under HC Aaron Glenn, the Jets should be better than 2024’s 5-12 record. How much better? That all hinges on Fields.

  

Listen To: No Free Lunch

How dangerous could former Lions great DT Ndamukong Suh’s Detroit teams have been if he, Calvin Johnson (No. 2 pick in 2007 signed for six years, $64 million) and Matthew Stafford (No. 1 in 2009 signed for six years, $72 million) were on today’s rookie deals?

Fifteen years after Ndamukong signed his five-year, $68 million rookie contract, 2025’s No. 1 pick Cam Ward’s (fully guaranteed) rookie deal is still a lower total figure. I was curious: Does Ndamukong think the rookie wage scale is a net positive for NFL players?

Ndamukong 💬: “That’s a really insightful comparison, and it highlights a core tension in the NFL’s financial landscape. While the 2011 CBA’s rookie wage scale did introduce some positive changes, particularly around guaranteed money, my overall view is that it’s a net negative for NFL players.

“The guaranteed money aspect is certainly a benefit, providing a level of security that wasn’t there before. However, when you look at the broader picture of player compensation and the market value of top talent, the scale has arguably suppressed earning potential for a significant portion of the league’s newest and most impactful players.

“So, while there’s a clear upside in one area, the overall impact on the player’s financial trajectory, in my opinion, leans towards the negative.”

Wait. Suh and finances? Why yes, we’ve cooked something up. 

No Free Lunch is your unexpected guide to the world of business and finance, curated by one of the world’s true double threats: NFL legend and entrepreneur Ndamukong Suh.

In every episode, Ndamukong will be joined by athletes, experts, business leaders, and recurring contributors to discuss their personal success journeys and explore the latest business ideas and trends, all filtered through the world of sports. The goal is to educate, entertain, and empower viewers and listeners to become more knowledgeable about personal finance and business.

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(Photo: Timothy T Ludwig / Getty Images)