As we turn the page to a Thanksgiving weekend matchup with the Colts at Gillette Stadium on Sunday, a disappointing loss to the Dolphins lingers in one particular way for the Patriots.
For head coach Jerod Mayo’s program, the season’s final five weeks are about setting a standard for New England Patriots football. There will be games where the team doesn’t have it that day. Even in pro sports, it happens, especially to a rebuilding team. You can chalk it up to a bad loss in a venue where the Patriots haven’t played well for decades against a quarterback who is now a perfect 7-0 in his career vs. New England in Miami starter Tua Tagovailoa.
We can give the Patriots a mulligan or start talking about setting a higher bar for this team’s compete level and attention to detail. Miami was a bad matchup, but that isn’t an excuse for going down 31-0 to a division rival with a host of self-inflicted wounds, from 13 total penalties to coverage busts that led to walk-in touchdowns and more moving backward on offense than forward at certain points.
The big thing for the Patriots in the final five weeks is that losing cannot become habitual. New England cannot let that be the new norm, and we all want to see this program moving on an upward trajectory as the season comes to a close. That doesn’t necessarily mean winning five in a row, but now is the time to lay the groundwork for building a winning culture around your young franchise quarterback in the making.
This week, the Patriots have an opportunity to put a more competitive product on the field when they host the Indianapolis Colts. We are a long way away from Brady vs. Manning for both these teams, as Indy has lost four of its last five trying to navigate its own ebbs and flows with a second-year quarterback. Although the numbers don’t back it up, the combination of Colts HC Shane Steichen and QB Anthony Richardson can be dangerous if you’re unprepared for Indy’s unique scheme.
After two straight weeks where motion-heavy offenses filled with smoke and mirrors put the Patriots defense on their heels, here comes another offense where New England will see some different wrinkles. Steichen is a good play designer who has an option package featuring Richardson’s athleticism with a wide variety of schemes. This isn’t an easy matchup for a defense that has struggled recently to be assignment-sound.
Although we all want to talk about Maye and the offense, we will start on defense this week because that side of the ball isn’t working right now. The Pats are now 28th in total EPA and 30th in drop-back EPA this season. Offensively, New England should have some opportunities against Colts defensive coordinator Gus Bradley’s zone-heavy defense, but this is a big week for Mayo and DC DeMarcus Covington.
Let’s break down the schematic chess match between the Patriots and Colts in Sunday’s post-Thanksgiving showdown at Gillette Stadium.
Patriots Defense vs. Colts Offense: Which Anthony Richardson Do the Patriots Get?
The Colts offense was an entertaining study, both schematically with head coach Shane Steichen and with their young quarterback.
Starting with Steichen, the Colts head coach is a bright offensive mind. As a lover of the X’s and O’s, Steichen’s offense hits all the notes of a “modern” NFL offense with a dual-threat quarterback. The Colts HC essentially calls his entire offense out of the shotgun, as Steichen did with Jalen Hurts in Philly. Indy doesn’t major in motion, ranking 26th in motion rate (53.5%), so it’s a small reprieve from that for the Patriots defense. The Colts are also primarily a three-receiver offense but will sprinkle in 12-personnel on early downs.
From a presentation standpoint, the Colts offense isn’t overly exotic like the Dolphins or Rams. However, Steichen is an excellent play-designer and play-caller who can attack opponent tendencies. The Colts head coach will be ready for man coverage from New England, and his early-down option package is as good as any in the NFL.