For the second straight week, New England is squaring off with an opponent currently in the AFC playoff picture that’s a good measuring stick game for the rebuilding Patriots.

After a better showing last week in Buffalo, the Patriots must prove that their competitive approach vs. the Bills wasn’t just a one-off performance. Building some late-season momentum will solidify the Patriots process under head coach Jerod Mayo heading into the 2025 offseason. Following a loss in Arizona, New England was much more competitive against their division rivals. Now, it’s about stacking good games together to end the season.

Along with using Saturday’s game vs. the Chargers as a litmus test, Los Angeles’s fortunes since drafting franchise quarterback Justin Herbert sixth overall in the 2020 NFL Draft is a good teaching tool for the Patriots rebuild. With all due respect to the Chargers, one thought that comes to mind when evaluating Herbert’s first four seasons as it pertains to New England is, “Don’t waste four years of Maye by spinning the tires.”

Los Angeles selected Herbert with the sixth overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. As a rookie, Herbert was an instant-impact starter. The Chargers QB1 ranks ninth in ESPN’s total QBR metric since entering the NFL, finishing in the top five twice, with an above-average 59.6 out of 100 QBR this season (15th among 34 QBs).

Although they have a 26-year-old stud quarterback, Herbert is on his third head coach and fourth offensive coordinator. The Chargers have played in one playoff game during his career, a shocking 31-30 loss to the Jaguars, where they led 27-0 in the second quarter of the 2022 Wild Card round. In the following season, the Chargers fired head coach Brandon Staley after starting 5-9, setting up Herbert to be on his third head coach.

Herbert has been fantastic but even having the quarterback figured out hasn’t led to team success for the Chargers. From this perspective, that’s the fear with Maye, who is actually one spot ahead of Herbert as the 14th-ranked quarterback in QBR during his rookie year (60.0). If the Patriots don’t figure it out around Maye, they’ll have a quarterback who looks the part without an infrastructure to support him properly.

After firing Staley, Los Angeles made a coaching splash by hiring former Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh from the college ranks. Fresh off a national championship in Ann Arbor, Harbaugh returned to the pros, where he was 44-19-1 in four seasons as 49ers head coach from 2011-2014, including a Super Bowl appearance in 2012.

In his first season with Los Angeles, Harbaugh’s Chargers have a 96 percent chance to make the playoffs with a 9-6 record. Herbert is supported by a defense that ranks 13th in DVOA, the best of his career, as the team takes on Harbaugh’s identity as a hard-nosed, detail-oriented operation. After drafting OT Joe Alt at the top of the first round, LA has three first-rounders on their offensive line, with Alt (fifth overall) joining left tackle Rashawn Slater (13th overall in 2021) and left guard Zion Johnson (17th overall in 2022). As a result, the Chargers rank 10th in ESPN’s pass-blocking win rate metric, the best pass protection of Herbert’s career.

Although they’re still in the honeymoon stage with Harbaugh, the Chargers are on the right track as an organization. LA comes to Foxboro after a Thursday night win over the Broncos, where Herbert was tremendous in primetime. By the looks of it, the Chargers have a coach-quarterback tandem that can compete with the top teams in the AFC. On Saturday, the Patriots will see the new-look Chargers firsthand.

Let’s break down the schematic chess match between the Patriots and Chargers on Saturday.

Patriots Offense vs. Chargers Defense: Prepping QB Drake Maye for Jesse Minter’s Defense

Starting on offense for the Patriots, Harbaugh’s first addition to his coaching staff was bringing defensive coordinator Jesse Minter to Los Angeles.

Minter has been in the Harbaugh family coaching tree since he was on John’s staff with the Ravens from 2017 to 2020 as a defensive assistant. Then, the up-and-coming coordinator went to the college ranks, eventually landing on Harbaugh’s staff with the Wolverines over the last two seasons. After he and Harbaugh led Michigan to a national championship, Minter is now directing an above-average defense by DVOA, points allowed, expected points added, and success rate.

The Chargers have stars Khalil Mack (fourth among EDGE in PFF grade), Derwin James (10th among safeties), and vet DE Joey Bosa. However, Minter has his group punching above its talent level, with underrated veterans like NT Poona Ford, linebacker/signal-caller Daiyan Henley, and rookie CB Tarheeb Still supplementing their core contributors on defense.

As a schemer, Minter is a tactical play-caller who is an excellent game-planner. The 41-year-old rising coaching star will key on the offense’s tendencies on early downs to allow LA’s defense to play an aggressive style in obvious passing situations. The Chargers are a multiple-front zone defense, ranking 30th in man coverage usage this season (20.6%). Los Angeles also plays the lowest rate of press coverage in the NFL as the only team below 10 percent (9.8%). Their staple coverages are cover-three (28.8%), quarters (24.9%), and cover six (11.2%).