Penalties, they’ll get ya

Something else that Nerdy Birds expertly pointed out this week is the effect of penalties committed by this offense on this offense.

According to Tru Media, Atlanta has lost 21.4 expected points added because of offensive penalties. What’s more, the Falcons have scored a touchdown on 26.6% of drives without a penalty but just 11.8% of drives when a penalty is committed. Atlanta’s red zone efficiency drops significantly, too, going from 65.2% on drives without a penalty to just 22.2% on drives with a penalty.

So, the stats back it up: Penalties have been a problem for the Falcons.

Personally, I truly believe if the Falcons are not being penalized as an offense, we thinking differently about what we are seeing out of the unit. I don’t think there is anything consistently wrong with play calling, scheme or even the execution within the plays themselves. It’s the penalties. When you look back at the most recent losses, there is a direct correlation between penalties mounting in the red zone and a stalling offense. Those penalties have a direct impact on how we feel about this offense right now. It’s up to the unit to make a change.

Player of the Game prediction: Matthew Judon

This may be my hottest take so far in 2024, but hear me out before you make any snap decisions.

In my opinion — and with offensive efficiency put aside for a moment — the only way the Falcons win this game Sunday is if they are affecting Herbert. If they don’t, if he feels comfort, ease and time in the pocket, he’ll tear up this defense. The Falcons are just coming off a game in which Bo Nix put up historical numbers for a rookie quarterback in Denver. I’d argue Herbert is better, which should be cause for concern considering how this defense looked last time out.

It’s why I am picking Judon. I don’t think Atlanta wins this game without the defense standing tall, and that includes Judon.

Judon has not been the pressure player the Falcons — or the man himself — wanted in 2024. In fact, I look at this prediction as more of a challenge than anything: Be the guy the Falcons sent a third-round pick to the Patriots in order to acquire. Be that double-digit sack machine who’s red sleeves dominated up front. If the Falcons get that Judon this Sunday, I think this game will be electrifyingly interesting.

If the Falcons’ pass rush remains stagnant and allows Herbert to throw the ball around the yard without qualms or quarrels…

The outcome will not be what the Falcons need it to be.