Since coming out of their Week 11 bye with a 4-6 record, the rejuvenated Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been racing the Atlanta Falcons to the NFC South finish line. The Buccaneers briefly pulled ahead of their long-time rivals on the strength of a four-game winning streak, but a loss in Dallas on Sunday night allowed the Falcons to nudge back in front. Now the two 8-7 teams are rounding the last bend, with two weeks to go and only Atlanta’s head-to-head tiebreaker making the difference.
The Bucs’ 26-24 prime time loss to the Cowboys was a painful one, as it robbed the team of full control of its own playoff fate – an Atlanta loss to Washington on Sunday or to Carolina in Week 18 is now a necessary part of Tampa Bay’s clinching formula – but they had the ball with a chance to win it at the end after climbing out of a double-digit deficit.
“I keep saying it, this team has the mental makeup of a great team,” said quarterback Baker Mayfield. “We just have to continue to fight and find ways to win. It’s one thing to have your back against the wall, everybody knows what’s at stake here. There’s no secret, so yeah, we’re going to do everything we can to win. On the other side of it, you have to stay at the top. You have to do everything you can to do that so obviously [we have our] backs against the wall, though.”
Hoping to spoil the Bucs’ plans for a fourth straight NFC South title are two division rivals, starting with 4-11 Carolina this Sunday at Raymond James Stadium. These two teams met just one month ago in Charlotte, and despite the Panthers’ win-loss record it still went down to the wire. Carolina quarterback Bryce Young hit Adam Thielen on a 25-yard, go-ahead touchdown pass with 30 seconds left in regulation, but that left enough time for Mayfield to engineer a drive ending in Chase McLaughlin’s game-tying 51-yard field goal. In overtime, a critical forced fumble by Anthony Nelson put the Bucs in position to win it, 26-23, with another clutch McLaughlin kick.
The Panthers are coming off their own tough overtime win over Arizona last Sunday and have recently come close to beating not only the Buccaneers but also the Chiefs and Eagles.
“We know it’s going to be a tough ball game – it went overtime last time,” said Head Coach Todd Bowles. “They’re coached very well; they play very hard. We know what’s at stake for us. It doesn’t need to be talked about. Everybody understands that. We’ve got to clean up our own mistakes, and we’ve got to play an error-free football game.”
Mayfield and the Buccaneers’ offense continue to keep the Buccaneers in every game. Tampa Bay is now fifth in the NFL in points per game (28.5), third in yards per game (389.8), third in passing offense, seventh in rushing offense, third in first downs and second in third-down success rate. However, familiarity may be an issue, especially with how recently the two teams played each other. Panthers Defensive Coordinator Ejiro Evero and Bucs Offensive Coordinator Liam Coen previously crossed paths with the Rams and Ejiro knows what a Sean McVay-inspired offense looks like.
“Yeah, I think division opponent – anything like that – we know them well,” said Mayfield. “They know us well. It goes to that and just scheme-wise, their [defensive coordinator] is somebody that was in [Los Angeles] and knows Liam. Just knowing each other, there’s a lot of stuff that you can…you try and do a little bit of scheme tendency breakers a little bit. They get a good sense for what we’re trying to do.”
Young, who was benched in Week Two but got his job back around midseason when replacement Andy Dalton was hurt in a car accident, has shown significant improvement in the season’s second half. In his last six games, he has thrown seven touchdown passes against three interceptions; that includes last week’s overtime win over Arizona in which he threw for a pair of scores and had a passer rating of 107.3. He is supported by the Panthers’ biggest breakout player of 2024, running back Chuba Hubbard. Hubbard ranks sixth in the NFL in rushing yards and has also been a prolific pass-catcher out of the backfield.
Most importantly, the Panthers haven’t quit despite being out of the playoff race, and the Buccaneers saw how important that was last weekend in Dallas. Safety Jordan Whitehead, who could return from a four-game injured reserve stint this week, didn’t get to face the Panthers last time but saw how they took the Buccaneers to the brink. The Buccaneers had just started openly treating every game as if it was a must-win playoff contest at that point, and that has only intensified as the season has come down to the wire, with so much at stake over the next 10 days.
“It’s a long season,” said Whitehead. “These last two games – most people their last two games are what matter the most. Two division games for us. It’s definitely a good game [for me] to come back. We’ve still got a lot on the table, we’re still fighting for this playoff spot. It’s like, this is the playoffs for me, for the whole team, for everybody. This is the playoffs. It’s been the playoffs for the last couple weeks and we’ve been winning. We just need something to go in our favor, but I know the guys are hungry.”
GAME AND BROADCAST DETAILS
Carolina Panthers (4-11) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7)
Sunday, December 29, 1:00 p.m. ET
Raymond James Stadium (capacity: 65,844)
TV Broadcast Team: Ian Eagle (play-by-play), Charles Davis (analysts), Evan Washburn (reporter)
Radio: 98Rock (WXTB, 97.9 FM), Flagship Station
Radio Broadcast Team: Gene Deckerhoff (play-by-play), Dave Moore (analyst), T.J. Rives (reporter)
Spanish Radio: 96.1 Caliente
Spanish Radio Broadcast Team: Carlos Bohorquez (play-by-play), Martin Gramática (analyst), Santiago Gramática (reporter)
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ALL-TIME HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES
The Panthers lead the all-time series with the Buccaneers, 25-23, but the Buccaneers have won eight of the last nine meetings and 10 of the last 12. That includes consecutive season sweeps in 2020 and 2021, the first time the Bucs had managed that against Carolina since the NFC South was formed in 2002. The Buccaneers and Panthers also met three times before realignment put them in the same division, including a contest in Death Valley that the Bucs won, 20-13, in the Panthers’ 1995 inaugural season.
Earlier this season, the Buccaneers further narrowed the gap on the Panthers’ series lead with a dramatic 26-23 victory in overtime. It was the second overtime win against Carolina for the Buccaneers, who also took a 27-21 decision with an extra period in 2012. In this one, Bryce Young threw a 25-yard touchdown pass to Adam Thielen to give Carolina a 23-20 lead with 30 seconds left in regulation. Baker Mayfield was able to drive the Bucs into position for Chase McLaughlin to hit a game-tying 51-yard field goal as time expired. Tampa Bay won the overtime coin toss but McLaughlin missed a 55-yard field goal and the Panthers subsequently drove into Buccaneers territory before Anthony Nelson forced a Chuba Hubbard fumble that was recovered by Yaya Diaby. A 38-yard run by Rachaad White set McLaughlin up for the 30-yard game-winner.
The Buccaneers got another season sweep in 2023, with both games occurring in the last six weeks of the season. The first meeting was in Week 13, which the Buccaneers won 21-18 in Tampa. On a rainy afternoon and early evening, the Bucs outlasted a game Panthers squad thanks to wide receiver Chris Godwin’s 19-yard touchdown run in the fourth quarter on an end-around. That gave the home team an 11-point lead, which the Panthers shaved to three on Hubbard’s one-yard touchdown run with five minutes to go. Carolina got the ball back with 3:31 to play but safety Antoine Winfield Jr. saved the Bucs with an interception near midfield. In the rematch in Charlotte in Week 18, Winfield made another critical play, stripping Panthers wide receiver D.J. Chark of the ball inches before the goal line on what seemed certain to be a 43-yard touchdown. That play helped preserve a shutout as the two teams combined for just 447 yards of offense and all the points in a 9-0 decision came on McLaughlin field goals.
Since the two teams started playing each other twice a year, the head-to-head battle has traditionally been one-sided, though that side often flips back and forth. From 2002-17, 13 of the 16 season series between these two teams ended in a sweep, including every one from 2009 through 2017. It went Carolina’s way in 2003, 2004, 2006, 2009, 2011, 2013, 2014, 2015 and 2017. The Bucs got the sweep in 2002, 2010, 2012 and 2016. Interestingly, the three splits came in years the Buccaneers either made the playoffs (2005, 2007) or really should have (2008…which ended in a four-game losing streak after a 9-3 start).
The 2022 head-to-head, however, was a split, with each team winning at home. Carolina handed the Bucs perhaps their most humbling loss of the season in Week Seven, a 21-3 drubbing at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte. The Panthers came into the game with a 1-5 record and had recently fired Head Coach Matt Rhule and traded superstar running back Christian McCaffrey. Third-string quarterback P.J. Walker completed 16 of his 22 passes and tossed two touchdowns against no interceptions and running backs D’Onta Foreman and Hubbard combined for 181 rushing yards.
The rematch in Week 17 proved to be one of the Buccaneers’ most important wins in recent years as it clinched the team’s second straight NFC South title and made a potential divisional free-for-all in Week 18 moot. It didn’t come easily, as the Panthers rushed out to a quick 14-0 lead on two Sam Darnold touchdown passes, but Tom Brady solved the problem by repeatedly throwing moon shots to Mike Evans. Evans caught touchdown passes of 63, 57 and 30 yards and finished the game with 207 yards on 10 grabs. His last one put the Bucs in the lead for the first time in the fourth quarter, and a Brady touchdown run provided the final winning margin in a 30-24 squeaker.
The Bucs and Panthers met twice in the final three weeks of the 2021 season, with Tampa Bay taking both contests by a combined score of 73-23. In the regular season finale, the Buccaneers got 137 receiving yards from Rob Gronkowski and two touchdown receptions from Evans before wideout Scotty Miller capped the scoring by taking an end-around 33 yards for a touchdown. Two weeks earlier, the Buccaneers had prevailed at Bank of America Stadium when the defense sacked quarterbacks Darnold and Cam Newton a total of seven times and allowing just two field goals. Safety Jordan Whitehead had a key interception and three pass break-ups. Ke’Shawn Vaughn’s 55-yard touchdown jaunt, the Bucs’ longest run of the year, started the scoring and emerging wideout Cyril Grayson accounted for 95 yards of offense, including a 62-yard reception.
In 2020, the Bucs’ September win at home against Carolina was the first of 15 they would stack up on their way to a Super Bowl championship, and the first win as a Buccaneer for Brady. Leonard Fournette paced the offense with 116 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns and Carlton Davis and Whitehead each had interceptions off Teddy Bridgewater in a 31-17 decision. The rematch in Charlotte in November was a high-scoring affair that included the longest run in Buccaneers’ history, Ronald Jones’ 98-yard touchdown dash. Incredibly, the Buccaneers scored on 10 straight possessions to pull away from the Panthers for a 46-23 win.
In 2019, the Buccaneers secured a tight win in Charlotte on a Thursday night in Week Two when Vernon Hargreaves knocked Christian McCaffrey out of bounds two yards shy of the sticks on an all-or-nothing fourth-down run off a direct snap. That 20-14 Bucs win was balanced four weeks later by a 37-26 win for Carolina in a game played in London.
Perhaps the most notable wins for Tampa Bay in the series with Carolina came in 2002 and 2005. At the midpoint of the 2002 Super Bowl campaign, the Buccaneers were coming off a deflating loss in Philadelphia (again) and had to play at Carolina without their quarterback, Brad Johnson, who woke up with the flu. Defense dominated and the Bucs were trailing 9-6 late in the fourth quarter before Martin Gramatica saved the day with two long field goals. In 2005, the Buccaneers were in the middle of a late-season three-game road swing when they went to Bank of America Stadium and won a battle for first place by a 20-10 score. Ronde Barber punctuated that game with a sack and a critical interception, becoming the first cornerback ever to reach 40 interceptions and 25 sacks in his career.