As we warned against in last week’s gameplan, the Jaguars had the repeat play giving the Patriots problems ready to go for when they put base personnel on the field. The play is a post-dig combination against zone coverage. This time, it appears the Pats are in cover-three, and when the post safety (Mapu) helps to the second-level dig, CB Christain Gonzalez is out-leveraged against the deep post by speedy rookie Brian Thomas Jr.

In all, Jags QB Trevor Lawrence was 10-of-10 for 157 yards when the Patriots played zone coverage on Sunday. When the Pats were in man-to-man, Lawrence was just 5-of-10 for 36 yards – a difference of 15.7 yards per attempt (zone) compared to 3.6 YPA vs. man. From this perspective, the Patriots zone structures aren’t productive because they don’t have the personnel to cover the middle of the field, whether that’s at the linebacker level, which is being exposed, or at safety to keep plays in front.

Right now, the middle of the Patriots defense isn’t stout, and offenses are attacking that weakness to expose it each and every week.

Quick-Hit Film Notes From Patriots-Jags After Further Review

– The biggest issues with the run-blocking that produced -2 yards before contact was second-level defenders shooting gaps against outside zone and compressing pullers with aggressive downhill triggers. Even with Maye at QB, defenses still tee off on the Pats run game. The Jags had their backside linebackers scream downhill when they read run, and until the Pats start making them pay with play-action, it will continue.

– Rookie WR Ja’Lynn Polk had his hands on all three of his targets. Although none were charted officially as drops, those were three contested targets that Polk was advertised as being able to catch. Maye threw a high but catchable ball on a boot-action out, brought Polk back into the safety on a corner route vs. cover two (this was on Maye), and the Pats WR was well covered on a crosser. He also slipped coming out of his break on a whip route that would’ve made it a seven-point game on a two-point try. Again, you’d like to see Polk make a play for his quarterback on occasion, but the targets were highly contested.

– TE Hunter Henry is truly Maye’s best friend. He has a great feel for how to settle into zone voids on the stick/option routes (Hooper didn’t do the same on a 4th QTR target), made a play for his QB on the seam-splitter, and works extremely well off-script to uncover when Maye goes into playground mode (Kelce-lite in this area). Henry has 11 catches on 14 targets for 133 yards and a score with Maye as QB1.

– WR Kendrick Bourne had some chances that will hopefully hit soon. He had a would-be completion prevented by Josh Hines-Allen jumping offside, was open on an in cut on third down on the second drive, open on a shallow crosser late, and open on the 14-yard out they did connect on. Those two will start connecting once they’ve logged some reps together.

– Although there wasn’t much there, RB Rhamondre Stevenson looked a little rusty with his reads at times. There were a few cutback lanes on duo schemes that Stevenson usually hits to bounce it to the B or C gaps. Stevenson did make a nice block on a screen design for KJ Osborn and had a solid 11-yard gun run (trap scheme) on the opening drive.

– LT Trey Jacobs has some swing tackle potential but he has one rep a game where he’s late/stalls out of his stance and needs to get his hands up to establish first contact. Jacobs has good length and a solid punch, but he invites rushers into his body with his low hand carriage, leading to some issues with power. Overall, Jacobs allowed four hurries.

– RG Sidy Sow struggled in pass protection with a team-high five pressures allowed. Sow had issues with Arik Armstead’s long arm/bull rush, which led to a hit and two hurries. The Jags also got him on a few schemed pressures (three-man stunt and an overload pressure). Sow is struggling to anchor and isn’t playing with the same power in the run game as his rookie season.

– C Ben Brown was a beat late to diagnose two stunts that led to a hit and a hurry. Overall, he has done a nice job and hasn’t had any snap issues. This also was a down game for LG Michael Jordan, who allowed a QB hit, two hurries, and had issues in the run game. Between Jordan and Sow, the Pats guards struggled at times as run blockers.

– RT Mike Onwenu had a strong performance against Jags edge rusher Travon Walker, allowing only one hurry (sack was on Maye). The Pats are making it tough on Onwenu by toggling him between right guard and right tackle. But he did his job in pass pro this week. As a run blocker, Onwenu and Sow got split on a double-team, and Walker got upfield on him to shut down an outside zone run. Onwenu is still much better on the inside in the run game.

– QB Pressures: Sow (hit, four hurries), Jacobs (four hurries), Jordan (hit, two hurries), Brown (hit, hurry), Onwenu (hurry), Robinson (hurry). The team pressure rate was 40.5%.

– The Patriots defense missed 10 tackles, one short of tying a season-high, and had just a 19% pressure rate. The Jags controlled the line of scrimmage. These elements point to why HC Jerod Mayo said the team is “soft” right now, while it also speaks to the fundamentals of the defense.

– LB Jahlani Tavai is a good player. He’s being forced to play slightly more off the ball (a six percent increase from 2023) and is at the point of attack without Bentley. Still, he missed two tackles, including on a 13-yard run, and got beat on a 24-yard completion and a 13-yard reception. Tavai is having a tough time out there while taking on an expanded role.

– CB Christian Gonzalez has given up big plays in two straight games. As shown above, Gonzo was in a tough spot on the 58-yard bomb to BTJ, playing a cover three technique without safety help on the post, and he did his best to get the ball out at the catch point. But it’s still the first explosive completion of the year into his coverage. Gonzalez also allowed a 13-yard crosser and a two-point conversion. The Jags first-round rookie is a good young receiver with blazing speed, but those were big plays in the game that didn’t go Gonzalez’s way.

– DE Keion White’s playing time is decreasing. White played a season-low 69% of the snaps this week because he’s playing less in the Pats base fronts for sturdier interior run defenders. He logged a hurry on the final third down of the game, rushing over the guard. White also had a nice run stuff on a jet sweep toward his side and made a coverage stop on a screen to Engram as an edge defender. Although he made a few plays, the defense desperately needs to get White going again. They need him to be the force he was in the season’s first two weeks.

– LB/S Marte Mapu’s versatility and physicality when he’s playing downhill are solid building blocks. However, he’s still learning how to recognize things to play to his athleticism. Mapu was baited out of his assignment on a play-action crosser (13 yards), was caught covering grass on Lawrence’s 11-yard scramble on third-and-8, and it’s unclear if he was assignment sound on the bomb to BTJ. Mapu is a good athlete and a physical hitter. If he can improve his mental processing, he can be a useful player for this defense. He just needs to trust his eyes more.

– NT Davon Godchaux is getting game-planned now as a run defender. That’ll happen when there aren’t other defenders in the front for teams to worry about, like Barmore and Judon. Godchaux is getting double-teamed, pinned/whamed, and seeing different run actions to get him off his spots. The Jags made him sort through a lot of stuff this week, and he wasn’t his usual stout self in certain instances.

– DT Jaquelin Roy continued to have some good moments with three run stuffs, including a fourth-down stop. It looked like LG Ezra Cleveland might’ve tripped on Lawrence’s left foot on the fourth down play, but Roy still discarded Cleveland to make the stop. Roy is their best interior run defender besides Godchaux right now, but even he had some issues early on.

– LB Anfernee Jennings had a team-high four run stuffs with a great play to string out BTJ on an end around and a blown up counter scheme where he got underneath the puller. Jennings got sucked in on a duo scheme where the back bounced it out to his side for a first-down run, but he was noticeable and a net-positive on a down day for the run defense.

– My read on Thomas Jr.’s touchdown in the second quarter was that the Patriots were in box rules with four defenders over a condensed bunch. Typically, that means the player in Marcus Jones’s spot would have the first receiver breaking into the middle of the field, meaning Jones should’ve covered BTJ. Instead, he and S Kyle Dugger both covered Kirk, leaving Thomas Jr. wide open on the busted coverage.

– S Kyle Dugger had some nice moments with a batted pass on a blitz, a run TFL shooting his gap on a wham scheme, and a coverage stop on a screen. Dugger is doing his part.

– Coverage: Gonzalez (2/2/71 yards/two-point play), Tavai (3/2/37 yards), Uche (2/2/26 yards), Mapu (3/3/24 yards), Elliss (2/2/16 yards), M. Jones (5/3/12 yards), Dugger (1/1/7 yards), J. Jones (1/0/0).

– QB Pressures: Dugger (hurry), White (hurry), Ekaule (hurry), M. Jones (hurry). Run stuffs: Jennings (4), Roy (3), Ekuale (3), Elliss (2), Gonzalez, Dugger, Mathis, White, Mapu, Godchaux, Wise, McMillan (1 each).