The New England Patriots will beat the Pittsburgh Steelers tomorrow night.

Because they are better.

Rather than get too technical, here are three basic reasons:

They have a better quarterback. They have a better coach. And they have a better defense.

That is not to discount the Pittsburgh Steelers in each of those three categories, because they are competitive in all of them.

For the Steelers to win, they need to win one battle and maybe win it big: Turnovers.

A week ago, the Patriots eventually won the turnover battle, but that was because of the Texans quarterback. As my colleague Hector Longo so eloquently noted yesterday, the Steelers are more than prepared at that position tomorrow night with Ben Roethlisberger.

But without an edge on turnovers, maybe two-plus, Roethlisberger is not at the level he was two, three and even seven years ago. 

The point is Big Ben needs help.

If he gets the help, from Tom Brady blunders, yes, Roethlisberger could finish the job.

The key to beating the Patriots is slowing down the offense, with constant pressure on Brady, and the ability to throw the ball downfield. Dinking and dunking never beats Bill Belichick teams. That’s why a matchup with Kansas City and quarterback Alex Smith would’ve been a cakewalk.

Le’Veon Bell, my pick for NFL MVP, won’t beat the Patriots. Him having a good game — say, 25 rushes, 140 yards — would be a big help for Roethlisberger throwing the ball to another MVP candidate, Antonio Brown, for big plays, even touchdowns.

But it won’t be easy for the Steelers offense because this Patriots defense is good, maybe even very good, not having allowed a 100-yard rusher in its last 24 games. 

That stat, though, will be meaningless tomorrow night because Bell isn’t going to beat the Patriots. It will be a few mistakes and a few big passes by Roethlisberger. 

The Steelers are good. Barring a few miscues by the home team — Belichick teams are 15-0 when winning turnover battle and 8-9 when they don’t — they aren’t good enough to beat the Patriots.

PREDICTION

Patriots 33, Steelers 23

 

Green Bay at Atlanta, 3:05 p.m.

I picked the Green Bay Packers to go to the Super Bowl. I look good right now.

There is one problem. They are going to lose tomorrow to the Atlanta Falcons.

Personally, I hope my prognostication — extreme analysis, matrices, film watching and, in the end, flipping of a coin — is wrong. America would much rather see Tom Brady vs. Aaron Rodgers on Feb. 4.

There is one problem. The Packers are running into a team Sunday that few of us have cared to follow or respect. And that team, the Falcons are a legitimate contender for the Lombardi Trophy.

The Falcons are No. 1 in points scored (33.8) and No. 2 in yards (415.8). Quarterback Matt Ryan, the NFL’s MVP (and deserving), surprised a lot of people be rebounding after two decent seasons and sub-par year in 2015 (21 TDs, 16 int.) with an All-World performance (38 TDs, 7 int.), upstaging the NFL’s top two QBs, Brady and Rodgers.

While Rodgers has been hot for two months, Ryan has been hot since the beginning of September.

Both the Packers and Falcons defenses are average, at best. Most would think this would favor Rodgers.

But sometimes the best team wins and the best team, especially with Packers wide receiver Jordy Nelson out, is the Falcons.

This will probably come down to the final series, which seems to happen a lot with the Packers. But it says here the Falcons will be a little bit better.

PREDICTION

Falcons 38, Packers 34

Bill Burt is executive sports editor for CNHI Sports Boston. You can email him at bburt@eagletribune.com.