“Between some players on the offense and a lackluster secondary, I’m noticing certain weak spots. Simply put, I’m pessimistic about this team, especially from a fantasy/betting perspective.”
Hard to believe that we’re well into the summer. When it’s too hot for some sun, I’m inside looking at bets for the coming season. One team in particular that has caught my eye for season-long bets is the Atlanta Falcons. They are now over a year removed from Arthur Smith calling plays, but have yet to clinch a playoff spot. Atlanta drafted key defensive players in round one with LB Jalon Walker & EDGE Rusher James Pearce JR. However, between some players on the offense and a lackluster secondary, I’m noticing certain weak spots. Simply put, I’m pessimistic about this team, especially from a fantasy/betting perspective. Here are some of the best season-long prop bets that could hit.
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QB Michael Penix JR Under 3000.5 Pass Yards
In round one of the 2024 Draft, the Falcons selected Michael Penix 8th overall. Late into the season, the rookie took over for veteran Kirk Cousins. In that time, Penix threw for 3 TD passes & 3 interceptions. His passing yards only summed up to 775 yards. He’s also been sacked four times. All of which has happened in his first five games, including the two garbage time games last fall.
When Cousins was calling plays, Drake London had 5 games with at least 6 receptions, along with 6 TDs. Once the rookie took over, he didn’t continue producing yardage until the last week or so of the regular season. Darnell Mooney may have secured the WR2 job in Atlanta, but he had one game over 100 yards with Penix. All of Darnell’s TDs were earlier in the season with Kirk Cousins. And what did Kyle Pitts do with either QB last season? You guessed it; he was practically a non-factor who failed to exceed four receptions per game with yet another QB. This could be the last chance Pitts has with the Falcons. I don’t see any other team rushing in to trade for him.
As we saw last year, the prospect QB still has a lot to learn. If this is what the passing game is looking like, Hotlanta is gonna look like Notlanta. Kirk Cousins is expected to be the backup in Atlanta. Once things go south, expect the veteran to suit up and for this bet to hit. I was able to have the under on FanDuel boosted to +115. That passing number might seem lower than other QBs, but I still don’t believe Penix crosses that threshold.
RB Bijan Robinson Over 10.5 Rushing TDs
Per one of my previous articles, I’ve got high hopes for Bijan this season. He’ll be given a heavy workload to start the season as the Falcons continue to get their passing game together. The progression he had at the end of last season says it all for me. After the Week 12 Bye, Robinson scored a rushing TD in all but one game. He surpassed 100 rushing yards in half of those games. Penix starting instead of Cousins helped Bijan even more when he scored TWO rushing TDs in each of those games. This brought his TD total on the season to 14, and this includes a receiving TD. He also finished the season with over 1400 rushing yards.
In fantasy drafts, he’s got an average draft position of 3 according to Sleeper. With the volume he’s bound to receive, some analysts have ranked him the #1 RB for redraft leagues. In fact, he’s been the number one overall pick in many Scott Fish Bowl drafts, which are all super flex. It may be a tough go in the beginning against the Buccaneers, Vikings, and Bills’ run defenses. After their Bye Week, he should be back to putting up numbers as he once did. Just be sure to handcuff Tyler Allgeier in case something goes wrong.
His rushing upside should exceed 10.5 rushing TDs. Of these Atlanta Falcons bets, this one’s available for +$ on multiple sportsbooks, including DraftKings, FanDuel, and Hard Rock Bet.
Atlanta Falcons Under 7.5 Wins
When it comes to over/under win total bets, the Atlanta Falcons have been my favorite so far. They play against the AFC East & the NFC West while two of their divisional matchups are in September alone. Poor QB execution will have me reason to believe there won’t be much celebration in Atlanta. Having a tough schedule doesn’t help the Falcons either. Here’s my breakdown:
In Week 1, the Falcons are hosting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who’ve won the NFC South the past four seasons. Baker Mayfield now has a new weapon in rookie WR Emeka Egbuka. He should be ready to expose this Atlanta secondary, despite the injury to OL Tristan Wirfs. The Falcons selected two Safeties late in the draft, but that’s assuming they even make the team. Jessie Bates & AJ Terrell will have their work cut out for them, especially with Mike Evans & Chris Godwin. They may have defeated the Buccaneers at home last season in OT, but that was before Penix replaced Kirk Cousins.
In their next two games, they travel to Minnesota and then to another divisional matchup in Carolina. Week 2 against the Vikings on Sunday Night Football will be another test for Atlanta, playing in primetime. While the Vikings are also playing with a young QB, their run defense just received an added boost with the recent signings of not one but two DTs. They’ve signed former 49er Javon Hargrave & longtime Commander Jonathan Allen. It might sound hard for Bijan, but I’d be worried more about Penix getting swallowed by this defensive front.
We saw how Dave Cannalis gave Bryce Young another chance, and the Panthers had some life in them. Chuba Hubbard finished the season with top 10 RB stats. Now they have rookie Tetairoa McMillan to go with wideouts such as Xavier LeGette & veteran Adam Thielen. If the potential continues to show at the start of the season, this matchup could be closer than we think. Starting 0-2 would be bad enough, but 0-2 in the division on top of being 0-3? Raheem Morris could be in the hot seat early on.
For their next two matchups, the Falcons are at home. However, they’re hosting two of the final four teams from last year. First, the Commanders in Week 4, but they get their bye week before the Bills come to town. I don’t think Jayden Daniels will have an issue with this defense, and Josh Allen certainly won’t either. Not to mention their Week 6 matchup against Buffalo is on Monday Night Football. That following Sunday is yet another primetime game as the Falcons travel to San Francisco to play the 49ers. If Brandon Aiyuk & Ricky Pearsall are healthy by then, this could be a runaway. Will Penix be able to play from behind if the 49ers are fully equipped, including with Jauan Jennings?
Fast-forwarding to December, they face the remaining NFC West teams. The Seahawks have a chance to coach Sam Darnold to play like he did in Minnesota with Washington State’s own Cooper Kupp. Kyler Murray & the Cardinals have their own offensive weapons in Marvin Harrison Jr. & Trey McBride. Along with the division champion, the Los Angeles Rams, this division could sweep the Falcons very easily.
Overall, it’s hard for me to see this team winning many football games. Hard Rock Bet had this number at +125, and I’m more than ok with taking it.
Time is Running Out!
The off-season is winding down, and the Hall of Fame game is coming up. The lines for these Atlanta Falcons bets won’t be plus money for long. For any team, numbers for season-long bets are more likely to change as the pre-season starts to play out. Be sure to keep an eye out for any upcoming promos on your local sportsbook before the season begins. There are multiple best bet articles, as well as fantasy advice and more available on IDPPlus.com.
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