I complete this exercise almost every summer. I look at the schedule and rank the games based on my assessment of difficulty for each win. Before continuing, I believe this Vikings team can beat any team on (and not on) its schedule. Various factors and weights contribute to the rankings. In the end, while no game is an easy win or a certain loss, some games are more likely wins than others. For this purpose, game No. 17 is the most likely victory. Game No. 1 is my game ranked least likely for the Vikings to win. For a twist, I’m also predicting a caveat performance for each week.

17. Vs. Falcons; Week 2, SNF*: Michael Penix, Jr., and McCarthy and another Cousins visit, though likely on the sideline for Kirk this time. Plenty of star power in Atlanta. But I believe the Vikings match up well for the home opener in prime time.
Caveat: Look for a Vikings defensive TD.*

16. Vs. Bears; Week 11: Rare to have a divisional game this low. But looking at the other game scenarios and considering this game is the back end of a two-game home stand, I couldn’t elevate this game or drop another. Hopefully a win here completes a sweep of Chicago.

Caveat: A big game for Justin Jefferson despite Chicago’s defensive focus.

15. @ Giants; Week 16: Given Vikings history against Russell Wilson, I considered raising this one. New York has a daunting defensive front. But I think there are areas the Vikings can exploit.

Caveat: The Vikings get at least 4 sacks including a strip sack.

14. @ Browns (London), Week 5: Plenty of special circumstances here. The Vikings will not have to travel far (from Dublin) and will not have to deal with a strongly partisan Cleveland fan base. The Vikings have a history of success overseas, and I expect that to continue.

Caveat: Bold prediction is a special teams touchdown for the Vikes.

13. @ Steelers (Dublin), Week 4: The Vikings make their longest trip of the season following two home games early in the season. Aaron Rodgers may not be the MVP he was, but I don’t take his skill set lightly. Still, my scouting of this Steelers team gives me solid confidence in yet another overseas victory in an away game with a relatively neutral fan base and the opposing team traveling the same distance as the Vikings.

Caveat: McCarthy has his longest touchdown pass of the year in this one.

12. Vs. Bengals, Week 3: That I have the Bengals game ranked here says a lot about the rest of the schedule. The Bengals have shown a tendency to start slowly, and right now, who knows the Trey Hendrickson status for Week 3? I’m basing this ranking considering a 50/50 chance he will be on the field for this one. Cincy’s strengths are ridiculously strong, and its weaknesses are equally weak.

Caveat: This is a coaching test. I’m betting O’Connell passes it. Both teams score over 30 points. A late turnover decides it.

11. Vs. Packers; Week 18: History could repeat with a Vikings Week 18 divisional game deciding something very significant for one or both teams. I predict a national audience and a close final score. Overtime will not surprise me.

Caveat: A big game for the running backs and especially Jordan Mason as the Pack focuses on keeping Aaron Jones at bay.

10. Vs. Commanders; Week 14: The reigning Rookie of the Year comes to town with a strong supporting cast. The rosters match up well. Points and even yards will be accrued at a premium.

Caveat: It’s difficult to think of these teams without offensive fireworks, but against each other, I predict more field goals than touchdowns. Going out on a farther and thinner limb, I’ll predict this game produces Viking kicker Will Reichard’s longest attempt of the season. Of course he makes it.

9. @ Bears; Week 1, MNF*: An away game in prime time to start the season. I almost don’t care who the opponent is, a Week 1 away game is a tossup for me. The fact that it’s a familiar opponent with a new coach makes things even spicier.*

Caveat: It’s a coin flip game. Literally. And the team that wins the coin flip in OT wins the game with a touchdown.

8. @ Seahawks; Week 13: If this game is in Minnesota, it goes all the way to my No. 1 win game. That’s how big a difference I see the Seattle home field differential. Sam Darnold will have a lot to prove, and very few places outside of Minnesota create a more daunting fan advantage.

Caveat: A very physical game produces J.J. McCarthy’s lowest statistical output of the season. The running game, defense and special teams make up for the lack of aerial numbers.

7. @ Cowboys; Week 15, SNF*: Historically, Vikings/Cowboys equates to the intensity of a divisional game. The rosters and team strengths match up well.*

Caveat: The Vikings will play their most balanced offensive game of the season. Red zone scores are scarce for both teams. The entire Vikings offensive line gets game balls as they open holes and protect McCarthy.

6. Vs. Ravens; Week 10: The Vikings have three home games left on the schedule at this point in my rankings. The fact that the Ravens are ranked this far down the list speaks to the quality of the remaining home opponents. In Baltimore, this game ranks as the toughest win. Getting the Ravens in the confines of the covered (not domed!) field in Minneapolis provides an edge for the Vikings.

Caveat: Minnesota gets a pair of early interceptions, and J.J. McCarthy scores his longest running TD of the season.

5. Vs. Eagles; Week 7: This home game follows a Vikings bye week which explains in part why it is not ranked as a more difficult win. Put this game on a Thursday night in Philadelphia, and it becomes a much more difficult victory ranking. This game will be decided in the red zone on both sides.

Caveat: And for my boldest and favorite performance prediction of the season, the Vikings recover a fumble on an Eagles scrum play. I refuse to use the more common term for the short-yardage play.

4. Vs. Lions; Week 17, Netflix special: Speaking of Thursday games, Detroit flights to Minnesota do not pose the same logistical difficulties of say San Francisco to Minnesota. So, the travel portion of the advantage is slight for Minnesota. Let’s face it, the Lions have been formidable for most teams including the Vikings, and this will be a slugfest.

Caveat: I can’t decide whether I want to predict a blocked punt or a punt return TD. Could be both for the Vikings.

3. @ Packers; Week 12: November 23 is quite different from December 23 in Green Bay. There could be snow and frozen tundra in Week 12, but there is some hope for milder conditions. Last year’s sweep by Minnesota will be on the mind of GB and as this is the first meeting between the two clubs, you can bet the Packers will be more than primed to assert home field dominance. Expect trick plays early from the Packers. If the Vikings can keep things close until the fourth quarter, they should be able to pick up good chunks in the running game.

Caveat: Aaron Jones catches a TD pass but not necessarily from J.J. McCarthy.

2. @ Chargers; Week 8, TNF*: Thursday night. In L.A. AGAIN! Following what almost certainly will have been a very physical and draining game against the reigning world champs. Call it PTSD, but I am sick of NFL schedule makers forcing Minnesota to travel cross-country on a short week. Historically the Vikings have not faired well in L.A. on Thursday nights. Hence the ranking of this game. Yes, there will be lots of purple in the stands and an early Viking lead will create opportunities for loud SKOL chants. Only Chargers Coach John Harbaugh knows J.J. McCarthy as well as the Vikings do. Thanks again schedule makers. I’m 75% serious when I say the Vikings should start backups at several key positions including QB just to stick it to the NFL brass for continuing to disrespect Vikings fans who deserve to have more long-distance USA-based away games on Sundays or Mondays and fewer on short weeks. The disadvantage is clear, and I doubt other teams are given the same treatment year after year. Plus starting Sam Howell would be a wrinkle the Chargers wouldn’t likely expect, and since I expect a heavy running and short passing game, the game plan works to Howell’s strengths. Rant over. While I have every confidence in McCarthy, O’Connell and the rest of the Vikings typical starters, maybe give them an extra late bye and make a push for the end of the season while not conceding the game. A win is quite attainable, but game conditions noted above add to the burden. If the Vikings defense stuffs the Chargers running game, it will be up to QB Justin Herbert to air it out.*

Caveat: Tight end T.J. Hockenson has a career game in receptions and possibly touchdowns.

1. @ Lions; Week 9: Do I need to justify the ranking?

Caveat: The Vikings score an early safety, a field goal to end the half and a long touchdown late.

— Jeff in Sacramento, California

Appreciate this energy from Jeff in breaking down the schedule in his unique way.

Based off last year’s results and how things look at the start of August, the Vikings have an extremely difficult schedule. Factors can change matchups at any moment.

It’s a tough draw to visit L.A. on such short rest, and it feels like the Vikings have done that quite a bit since teams have set up shop in the City of Angels without carding a victory.

I feel like I say it every week, but the wait for seeing everything unfold is shrinking.