Though we usually have a good idea of which teams will be national championship contenders, the expansion of the College Football Playoff to 12 teams has made it easier for unpredictable sleepers to make a run into the bracket.

Arizona State, Indiana and SMU joined top Group of 5 conference champion Boise State in leaping from unranked in the preseason to the Playoff last season. Who could do it this year? We asked 11 of The Athletic’s college football writers to pick Playoff dark horses from teams that were unranked in Monday’s preseason coaches poll.

Nebraska

If I keep predicting a Cornhuskers’ resurgence at some point I’ll be correct. Right?

Two reasons why Nebraska could be in CFP contention late into the season: First, the Matt Rhule third-year bump. His teams at Temple and Baylor followed similar paths. Year 1, losing record. Year 2, bowl eligible. Year 3, double-digit victories and an appearance in the conference title game.

Of course, doing that in The American and Big 12 is not the same as trying to do it in the Big Ten. That’s where reason No. 2 comes in. There are six ranked Big Ten teams in the coaches poll and the Cornhuskers play only two: No. 14 Michigan at home early and No. 3 Penn State on the road late. Overall, the Huskers have five Big Ten home games. That’s a manageable path for QB Dylan Raiola and Co. — Ralph D. Russo.

Oklahoma

What an alternate universe we’re living in to consider Oklahoma a sleeper. But the Sooners have been sleepy recently. While one can argue that no head coach in college football is under more pressure than Brent Venables, he did make two of the splashiest offseason moves of the year by hiring offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle and signing Superman impersonator quarterback John Mateer from Washington State.

The Sooners had a wild string of bad luck at a historically talent-rich position at WR in 2024. If Mateer has a bunch of typical OU receivers to throw to — in addition to handing the ball off to Cal transfer Jaydn Ott — the Sooners should be appointment TV.

On the flip side: Their 2025 schedule is brutal? Guess it boils down to how much Mateer can channel his A&M-era Manziel and keep the Sooners in 50-48-style games. — Christopher Kamrani

Louisville

The Cardinals went 9-4 a season ago and even upset ACC champion Clemson on the road. Jeff Brohm’s teams have proven they can compete with anyone in the ACC, and 2025 should be no exception.

Miller Moss takes over at quarterback after transferring from USC, where he threw for 2,555 yards last year, and reigning ACC Rookie of the Year Isaac Brown returns at running back. The wide receivers should be strong with Chris Bell and Caullin Lacy, and the Cardinals’ top two tacklers are back, as well, in linebackers TJ Quinn and Stanquan Clark.

Matchups against Miami, Clemson and SMU will give the Cardinals three chances to pick up crucial wins on the national stage. — Grace Raynor 

Utah

The Utes had a disappointing and injury-ravaged 5-7 season in 2024, including just 2-7 in their inaugural year of Big 12 play. Predicting a Utah bounce-back means betting on head coach Kyle Whittingham, who is coming off just his third losing season in two decades with the Utes, and pushing in the chips on a new-look offense.

Whittingham hired offensive coordinator Jason Beck away from New Mexico, and Beck brought the Lobos’ dynamic dual-threat quarterback Devon Dampier along with him. The combination of Dampier playing behind arguably the best offensive line in the country (anchored by left tackle Spencer Fano), Whittingham’s consistently stout defense and a tantalizingly wide-open Big 12 should give Utah a reasonable road to the Playoff. — Justin Williams

Georgia Tech

Brent Key has already brought the Yellow Jackets back to respectability. This isn’t a five star-laden roster, nor one built through the portal. But Key has built along the lines and has a lot of good pieces back, most notably QB Haynes King, a three-year starter whose dual-threat abilities are a problem for defense.

But the biggest reason for optimism is the schedule: The only two preseason ranked opponents are Clemson and Georgia, both of which are in Atlanta. (Georgia is at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.) There’s a path to the 10-2 record the Jackets would probably need to make the CFP, starting with the opener at Colorado, which is a chance to make a good first impression. — Seth Emerson

Iowa

After years of jokes about Iowa’s offensive ineptitude, what if that unit is (more or less) fixed? Transfer quarterback Mark Gronowski led South Dakota State to back-to-back FCS national titles and finished with more than 10,000 passing yards and 37 rushing touchdowns during his Jackrabbits tenure. Surely he can boost an offense that hasn’t cracked the top 50 in passing efficiency since 2017.

Assuming Iowa’s defense continues to be strong — which seems like a safe enough bet — a good-enough offense can make the Hawkeyes an upper-middle class Big Ten team. With arguably their three toughest conference opponents (Indiana, Penn State and Oregon) all visiting Kinnick Stadium, the Hawkeyes have an unlikely but feasible path to the CFP. — Matt Baker

Washington

Jedd Fisch quietly put together one of the season’s best coaching jobs last year. He took over the defending CFP runner-up that lost 21 of 22 starters and led it to a bowl game. This year, the Huskies have one of the Big Ten’s best trio of skill players in running back Jonah Coleman (1,053 rushing yards), receiver Denzel Boston (834 receiving yards, nine touchdowns) and potential breakout star Demond Williams at quarterback. The defense also should be much improved.

Washington plays four teams currently ranked in the top 14 of the coaches poll, but it hosts Ohio State in September, the Michigan (away)/Illinois (home) doubleheader takes place in late October and the finale against archrival Oregon is at home. — Scott Dochterman

Auburn

It’s been a disappointing first two seasons under Hugh Freeze, both ending with losing records. The Tigers are a combined 5-11 in SEC play under Freeze and are 10-22 in the conference over the past four years. Their inability to win close games has been a big problem, as they’re 2-8 in games decided by 10 points or less under Freeze, but I feel like things are ready to swing back in the other direction. Freeze knows how to win in the SEC, and I think he starts to get it rolling in 2025.

This is the best O-line the Tigers have had in years. They have some dynamic players outside in Cam Coleman and Eric Singleton Jr. It’s a favorable situation for a new quarterback to step into, and it’s a talented group of options featuring Oklahoma transfer Jackson Arnold, Stanford transfer Ashton Daniels and Deuce Knight, a freakish freshman, who could be special in this system before too long.

On defense, Keldric Faulk has the tools to be a dominant D-lineman and should cause fits for opposing offenses. He’s the headliner of what looks like a tough defensive front, and there’s plenty of speed and experience in the back end.

The season opener at Baylor will be tricky. The schedule isn’t easy, but Auburn doesn’t play Texas or LSU and gets Georgia and Alabama at home at least. — Bruce Feldman

Navy

What does Navy have to do to get some respect around here? Apparently winning 10 games last season — including a 31-13 thumping of rival and AAC champ Army, a wild 56-44 besting of Memphis, routs at Air Force and South Florida and an Armed Forces Bowl triumph over Oklahoma — isn’t enough. Nor is returning senior true dual-threat quarterback Blake Horvath, backfield standouts Eli Heidenreich and Alex Tecza, star nose tackle Landon Robinson and a host of other key players from 2024.

Robinson landed on Bruce Feldman’s Freaks List for a third straight year; it would be borderline freakish for this Brian Newberry-coached Navy team to end up short of another 10 wins given its quality and its schedule. — Joe Rexrode

Kansas

Kansas and preseason expectations don’t always go together. The Jayhawks had some preseason buzz last year after going 9-4 in Lance Leipold’s third season, but that quickly faded amid a 2-6 start. Quarterback Jalon Daniels had a disappointing season after an injury-plagued 2023, and the Jayhawks had a rocky transition from offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki to Jeff Grimes.

Looking ahead to 2025, Daniels is back, Grimes is off to Wisconsin and the Jayhawks are unveiling a long-awaited stadium renovation. Maybe this is their year. It will be fun to see what new offensive coordinator Jim Zebrowski can do with Daniels and running back Daniel Hinshaw Jr., the No. 21 player on Feldman’s Freaks List.

There’s no dominant team in the Big 12, and the Jayhawks avoid playing defending champion Arizona State in the regular season. The schedule sets up decently well for a dark-horse run to the CFP if Kansas can get past Missouri in a renewal of the Border War. — Austin Meek

Pittsburgh

Few remember that Pitt started 7-0 last season, and with good reason. The Panthers did not win another game after that. But an avalanche of injuries down the stretch, especially on the offensive line, helps explain why Pitt went from averaging 42.3 points during those first seven games to 19.2 over its last five-regular season games.

Pat Narduzzi’s team has a lot of continuity, starting with breakout quarterback Eli Holstein. OC Kade Bell is back after installing a more wide-open attack. And believe it or not, Pitt returns two All-Americans: Running back Desmond Reid, who ranked fifth nationally in all-purpose yards (154.9), and linebacker Kyle Louis (101 tackles, 15 TFLs), along with All-ACC linebacker Rasheem Biles (82 tackles, 15 TFLs).

Perhaps Pitt, which faces Notre Dame and Miami at home and does not get Clemson, could be this year’s SMU in the ACC. — Stewart Mandel

(Top photos of Dylan Raiola and Cam Coleman: Sean M. Haffey, Michael Chang / Getty Images)