Newsweek’s 2025 NFL betting preview finishes up the NFC with the one of the league’s least impressive divisions, but also one of the most intriguing: the NFC South.
The 10-win Buccaneers won the division a year ago, giving them five straight division titles dating back to the final years of Tom Brady‘s career.
The Falcons boast two young stars in running back Bijan Robinson and WR Drake London. They have struggled with QB and defensive issues, however, which have resulted in seven consecutive losing seasons.
Meanwhile, in nine seasons since the 2015 Panthers reached the Super Bowl, they have finished with six wins or fewer seven times. The Saints have also struggled in recent years, with a combined record of 30-38 since Drew Brees retired after the 2020 season.
2025 NFC South Win Total Betting OddsDKFDbet365Buccaneers9.5 (o-105; u-115)9.5 (o+105; u-125)10.5 (o-105; u-115)Falcons8.5 (o+125; u-150)8.5 (o+115; u-140)8.5 (o+120; u-150)Panthers6.5 (o-130; u+110)6.5 (o-130; u+110)6.5 (o-140; u+110)Saints5.5 (o+135; u-165)5.5 (o+140; u-165)5.5 (o+130; u-160)
The Bucs have quietly reached the playoffs in each of the last five years — including in 2020 and 2021 with Tom Brady and Bruce Arians — with Todd Bowles leading the Bucs to NFC South titles in 2022, 2023 and 2024.
For now, oddsmakers are understandably taking a “believe when they see it” approach to the possibility of the Falcons, Panthers or Saints returning to the playoffs this year. At DK, Tampa Bay is -170 to reach the playoffs, followed by Atlanta (+155), Carolina (+230) and New Orleans (+800).
Best Tampa Bay Bucs 2025 Win Total Bet
This offseason, the Buccaneers lost offensive coordinator Liam Coen, who was named head coach of the Jaguars. Otherwise, this team returns most of last year’s top contributors.
Yes, the absence of All-Pro tackle Tristan Wirfs early this season (MCL sprain) and the possibility of WR Chris Godwin missing time as he continues to recover from an ankle injury are concerns for this offense.
Still, barring a sudden drop-off in production from Mike Evans, Baker Mayfield and the offense should remain dangerous.
The Tampa defense held up despite a number of injuries a year ago, as corner Jamel Dean and starting safeties Christian Izien and Antoine Winfield Jr. all missed at least five games. Strong play by the D down the stretch — five of Tampa’s final seven opponents last year scored fewer than 20 points — played a big role in Tampa winning six of those games
Under head coach Todd Bowles, Tampa is always a solid bet to be a good defensive team. With better injury luck in the secondary and a boost from the offseason additions of two-time Pro Bowl pass rusher Haason Reddick and rookie corner Benjamin Morrison, there’s real potential for this to be a top-10 defense.
Add it all up, and Tampa to win 10 games for the third year in a row is a solid bet, especially at plus-money.
Best bet: Over 9.5 Wins (+105 at FanDuel) — 1 unit
Best Atlanta Falcons 2025 Win Total Bet
It would be an understatement to say that the Falcons have the offensive weapons to be a playoff team. Last year’s team beat the Eagles in Philly, swept the Buccaneers and started 6-3, but Kirk Cousins’ poor play down the stretch prevented it from winning the division.
Then-rookie Michael Penix Jr. showed flashes in his three starts, but his solid play wasn’t enough to overcome a defense that finished 31st in opposing third-down percentage and 23rd in points allowed.
No one can accuse Atlanta of failing to address the defense this offseason, starting with the acquisition of free agent linebacker Leonard Floyd, who has had at least 8.5 sacks each of the last five years.
The Falcons also took Georgia linebacker Jalon Walker at No. 15 overall and defensive end James Pearce Jr. at No. 26, then added safeties Xavier Watts in the third round and Billy Bowman Jr. in the fourth.
With a solid year from Penix and league-average or better defense, there’s no reason the Falcons can’t win nine games or more.
Right now, Atlanta is tempting at plus-money to go over 8.5 wins, but given how few reps Penix has under his belt, the safest play on this team is Over 7.5 wins at -140.
Best bet: (Alt) Over 7.5 Wins (-140 at DK, bet365) — 1 unitBest Carolina Panthers 2025 Win Total Bet
The Panthers are either an intriguing darkhorse or one of the safest bets to remain an afterthought, depending on what you think of Bryce Young.
His play in Weeks 1 and 2 last year was awful, and his counting stats for the year (234-for-384 passing, 2,403 yards, 15 TDs and 9 interceptions, plus six rushing TDs) were hardly remarkable.
But Young was lights-out down the stretch of 2024, with 10 total touchdowns (seven passing, three rushing) as Carolina beat Arizona, lost to Tampa Bay and beat Atlanta in Weeks 16, 17 and 18.
He also made a number of remarkable throws in close losses to Kansas City in Week 12 and Philadelphia in Week 14. Per PFF, Young completed 1.9 big-time throws per game over the final 10 games of the the year, the third-most in the league.
He should have a better receiving core in 2025 after Carolina took Tetairoa McMillan No. 8 overall, especially if Adam Thielen can stay healthy and three rookies who flashed in 2024 — first-round WR Xavier Legette, fourth-round TE Ja’Tavion Sanders and undrafted WR Jalen Coker — take a step forward.
Whether Carolina finishes below .500 or takes a big step forward will depend on a defense that was abysmal throughout last season, especially against the run. Few defenses in league history have ever given up more than the 5.2 yards per attempt that the Panthers allowed.
They spent big on the front seven in free agency, signing nose tackle Bobby Brown III, Patrick Jones II and Tershawn Wharton. They also welcome back an underrated force up front in Derrick Brown, who was dominant in 2023 but missed all but one game last year.
I’m admittedly banking on a couple of massive ifs going Carolina’s way, but if there’s a team with the pieces to exceed its win total by multiple games, it’s this one.
So yes, I’m taking former No. 1 overall pick Young to continue to resemble the player we saw at Alabama and Carolina to push Tampa Bay and Atlanta in a division where 9 or 10 wins might be enough for a playoff berth.
Best bet: Panthers Over 6.5 Wins (-130 at DK, FD) — 1 unit
Bonus bet: (Alt)Panthers Over 8.5 Wins (+210 at FD) — 0.5 units
Best New Orleans Saints 2025 Win Total Bet
This time of year, it’s easy to talk yourself into the case for the teams with the lowest win totals in the league to exceed those numbers.
The Saints strike me as an exception, though.
Oddsmakers agree. Four of the six teams in the NFL that are +300 or longer to reach the playoffs at DraftKings — the Raiders, Titans, Jets, Giants, Saints and Browns — play in the AFC. The Saints (+800) have by far the worst odds at DK to reach the playoffs of anyone in the NFC.
The skepticism starts at QB, where 2024 fifth-round pick Spencer Rattler and second-round rookie Tyler Shough are battling to be this team’s Week 1 starter.
The former completed 57 percent of his passes and averaged 5.8 yards per attempt in seven appearances (six starts) last year. New Orleans went 0-7 in those games and averaged just under 13.3 points per game.
The latter is one of the oldest rookie quarterbacks in recent memory at 26 years old after spending six years at Oregon (’19-20), Texas Tech (’21-23) and Louisville (’24).
The Saints were below average on both offense and defense a year ago, and unless Shough or Rattler are on the verge of shocking everyone, New Orleans is a safe bet to go 5-12 or worse, even against a soft schedule.
Unfortunately, New Orleans win total is juiced toward the under that I would actually recommend either staying away or taking them to go under 4.5 wins at plus-money
Best bet: Saints (alt) Under 4.5 Wins (+145) — 0.5 units
Newsweek may earn an affiliate commission if you sign up through any links in this article. See the sportsbook operator’s terms and conditions for important details. Sports betting operators have no influence over newsroom coverage.