Part two of our look at 2025’s over/unders swings us to the AFC West, where the Kansas City Chiefs find themselves in the unfamiliar position of having lost a Super Bowl.

Picking against the Chiefs to win the division feels like being contrary for the sake of being contrary. Kansas City last lost this division in 2015, when the gradually fading ghost of Peyton Manning and one of the top defenses in NFL history led the Denver Broncos to a Super Bowl title. Since then, it’s been all Andy Reid, from the best years of the Alex Smith run through Patrick Mahomes‘ tenure as the top quarterback in football. One might even be tempted to call them one of the best teams ever.

The Chiefs are rightfully favored to win the division once more, but it doesn’t seem like the same fait accompli that it normally is. It might well be that their divisional title run ends the way it started – with a defense-first Broncos team outpacing a good Chiefs team to the top of the division. The Chiefs weren’t as good as their 15-2 record implied last season, so the gap between them and the 10-7 Broncos isn’t as big as it appears on paper, even if you (rightfully) throw out the Week 18 beat down Denver had over whichever Chiefs players Reid and company thought were expendable. The AFC West is one of four divisions with two teams projected in the top 10 in DVOA, and if Kansas City slips up just a little bit, then Denver could be in an ideal position to wrench it away from them. We’re picking the Chiefs, mind you, but crazier things have happened.

We’ll also get a revival of the Jim Harbaugh-Pete Carroll rivalry, going from USC-Stanford to Seattle-San Francisco and now Las Vegas-Los Angeles. We’re higher on the Raiders than most, and lower on the Chargers than most, but two of the … shall we say more interesting coaches in the league means that there’s something to at least pay attention to in all four teams in this division. There are no bottom feeders here; no one so far out of the running as to be below consideration. If the Chiefs want to make this 10 straight division titles, they’re going to have to work for it.

Previous Divisions:
NFC West

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