It’s too early to be sure, and that’s the point.

Every fantasy season, titles are won by managers who identify trends before their competition. Just ask anyone who added unknown rookie receiver Puka Nacua from waivers in 2023, after his role quietly expanded throughout the preseason. Or someone who reached for Ladd McConkey, a rookie slot receiver reportedly dominating first-team reps last offseason, and got a top-12 season.

We can’t be sure which preseason updates matter, but in today’s era of fantasy football, you can’t afford to wait until developing trends become full-blown ones. By the time everyone agrees that these are real signals, the edge is gone — which is why I’m writing this column.

Each week, I’ll flag three topics that might matter. Maybe it’s a backup running back getting red-zone work. Maybe it’s a shift in usage that doesn’t show up in box scores. What I write here could find you this year’s league winner before anyone knows their name.

It’s too early to tell. (Get it!? It’s a column about it being too early, and I … you get it.) Let’s have some fun.

Note: I’ll review each developing trend after three weeks to hold myself accountable and separate the smoke and mirrors from what really matters. Unless otherwise noted, all stats are tailored to redraft, 0.5 PPR, one-QB leagues.

As for Week 1 of the preseason:

De’Von Achane, RB, MIA (Current ADP: 15th overall, RB7)

Achane saw his role expand dramatically after averaging a remarkable 7.8 yards per carry as a rookie. But giving Achane those extra touches, including short-yardage looks, is a main reason the Dolphins had more negative and zero-yard rushing attempts than any other team.

Their offensive line is partly to blame, especially since Miami runners averaged just 1.2 yards before contact (26th). Unfortunately, that unit lost its best run blocker, Terron Armstead, to retirement.

Achane combines game-breaking speed with a penchant for taking losses. He had the sixth-worst mark in rushing yards over expected (minus-0.42) among 41 qualifying running backs — ahead of only D’Andre Swift, Devin Singletary and the ghosts of Kareem Hunt, Alexander Mattison and Javonte Williams. Not good company.

Miami’s running backs, led by Achane, ranked 31st in EPA per rushing attempt, 31st in red zone rushing success rate and 32nd in first downs per rushing attempt. I can almost guarantee Achane is replaced in short-yardage situations.

His teammates agree.

“Take De’Von out on third down,” Tyreek Hill said earlier this offseason. “That’s my honest opinion. If it’s third-and-short, he’s not a power back. I keep telling him that in the locker room, but he swears he’s a power back. I love De’Von, but if I’m being honest like that, that’s why you got Jaylen Wright. That’s why you got Ollie Gordon II, for those kind of situations.”

But losing that role shouldn’t cost Achane much — when needing three yards for a first down or touchdown, the Dolphins gave Achane 34 rush attempts, on which he had just 60 rush yards (1.8 yards per carry) and 3 touchdowns, plus 8 receptions for 49 yards and a touchdown. No biggie.

It adds up, though. If we take those 38.9 fantasy points away, Achane drops from RB6 to RB14. Suddenly, he’s not a no-brainer in the second round. And that’s without considering the impact of a potentially lost role on third downs, as Hill suggested.

Now, that all must be caveated by the fact that Achane averaged nearly triple as many points when Tua Tagovailoa was behind center. He’s still a game-breaker, but the floor is lower than most expect.

I’ll be following his backups closely to see what role Wright, Gordon II and offseason signing Alexander Mattison take. If it’s just the bulk of short-yardage work, move Achane down a few spots. If it’s more, I’m probably passing at his ADP, especially if Bucky Irving, Jonathan Taylor, Kyren Williams and Chase Brown remain cheaper.

Projected late-August ADP: 22nd overall, RB10

Emeka Egbuka, WR, TB (Current ADP: 113 overall, WR51)

Training camp reports are most reliable about rookie receivers, as their position translates better from practices to a game situation than almost any other: A receiver beating a defensive back looks about the same even without full contact, whereas a running back can’t simulate the necessary contact in practice.

No other rookie has drawn such universal praise as Egbuka, whom fellow receiver Mike Evans called “a true professional who is going to be an unbelievable playmaker.” His quarterback, Baker Mayfield, said Egbuka is “an absolute stud.” Offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard had glowing praise for the 22-year-old rookie, and The Athletic’s Nick Baumgardner compared him to 2024’s Ladd McConkey, who set franchise records in his rookie season.

His situation appears less than ideal — Evans, Chris Godwin and Jalen McMillan are ahead of Egbuka on the Buccaneers’ first depth chart. But if Godwin misses any time, Egbuka might take over the “2021 Cooper Kupp role,” which Godwin played in 2024. Remember, Godwin was leading the NFL in receptions, receiving touchdowns and yards after the catch before a Week 7 injury cost him the season.

There’s also this: The Buccaneers used a first-round pick, one of the most valuable assets in the NFL, on Egbuka, who is a slot receiver. That archetype isn’t usually drafted 19th overall — Kupp was a third-round pick, McConkey went in the second, and Amon-Ra St. Brown was drafted after 16 other receivers (just ask him). It’s a signal that Tampa Bay has immediate plans for the Ohio State product, who has the upside to finish as this year’s top rookie receiver.

Godwin’s status is currently uncertain for Week 1, and with Egbuka waiting in the wings, there’s no reason to rush Godwin back. I’d expect more to catch on to the rookie’s appeal as we approach September, especially if Egbuka impresses with preseason reps. Buy now at a discount.

Projected late-August ADP: 95 overall, WR44

Isaac TeSlaa, WR, DET (Current ADP: 275 overall, WR92)

TeSlaa, GM Brad Holmes’ favorite receiver in the class (not best, but favorite), has been a steady riser all preseason. Yet he remains undrafted in most leagues, and rightfully so.

After all, the third-round rookie is still taking most reps with the second-team offense and remains behind Amon-Ra St. Brown, perennial breakout pick Jameson Williams and reliable veteran Tim Patrick. Even if he gets a starting role, he’ll likely remain behind St. Brown, Williams, tight end Sam LaPorta and running back Jahmyr Gibbs in the target pecking order.

That said, TeSlaa has impressed since arriving in Detroit, with our beat reporter Colton Pouncy writing this:

“TeSlaa is developing at a rapid pace, and the more he impresses in training camp and the preseason, the harder it’ll be to keep him off the field once the regular season arrives. He catches everything with his hands when targets come his way. When they don’t, the first thing he’s doing is looking for a defender to block. That’s how you earn reps for this staff, and TeSlaa has started to earn first-team reps — albeit, sparingly.”

This is a 6-foot-4 receiver, with a 4.43 40-yard dash time, whom Holmes (who knows ball) spent three third-round picks to acquire. TeSlaa has elite athleticism — Relative Athletic Score in the 99th percentile — and never dropped a pass in college football. Your fantasy team can also get a name like “I Drafted a Car” or a corny option like:

TeSlaa Battery Not Included
TeSlaa on Autodraft
Gridiron Gigawatt

If TeSlaa continues to impress — he led the Lions in receiving yards during their Hall of Fame game — his game-breaking ability should catch the eyes of more fantasy managers, vaulting him ahead of players like Wan’Dale Robinson (ADP: 187) and DeAndre Hopkins (ADP: 185).

Projected late-August ADP: 184, WR68

(Photo of Emeka Egbuka: Nathan Ray Seebeck / Imagn Images)