USA Today’s Fantasy Football sleepers to watch
USAT’s Joe Rivera, Tom Viera, and Jacob Camenker break down why Dak Prescott and Dalton Kincaid headline bold sleeper picks.
Sports Seriously
Bell cow backs in the NFL are like Blockbuster stores. There used to be one on every street corner, and now you have to dish out for a flight to Bend, Oregon, to see the very last one in existence.
In 2003, 13 running backs garnered at least 310 attempts. That’s the same number we’ve had in the last 12 seasons combined. As a consequence, attempting to predict the top of fantasy football running back rankings can be more frustrating than contract negotiations with Jerry Jones.
Since LaDainian Tomlinson accomplished the feat in ’06 and ’07, only one player has finished as fantasy’s overall RB1 in consecutive seasons — Todd Gurley in ’17 and ’18. In fact, here’s how the last 10 top running back finishers have placed the following seasons:
Le’Veon Bell in 2015 – RB48Devonta Freeman in 2016 – RB6David Johnson in 2017 – RB118Todd Gurley in 2018 – RB1Todd Gurley in 2019 – RB14Christian McCaffrey in 2020 – RB53Alvin Kamara in 2021 – RB8Jonathan Taylor in 2022 – RB34Austin Ekeler in 2023 – RB28Christian McCaffrey in 2024 – RB72
Yuck. The “RB1 Curse” might be more lethal than the “Madden Curse.”
One housekeeping item before we dive in. While the goal of this exercise is to come up with a short list of candidates to finish as the overall RB1 in 2025, that is not the sole purpose. We’ll also be looking to unearth common denominators among the elite fantasy producers, apply them to this year’s crop of backs, and identify the players who fit the criteria.
For this exercise, we’ll be digging into what the last 20 overall RB1s did the season before they finished atop the fantasy world.
Who will be the top fantasy football running back in 2025?
Here are the trends that will help us narrow the pool to a total of four candidates. (Note: All fantasy point references are half-PPR unless noted otherwise.)
28 — No running back older than 27 years old has finished as the overall RB1 since LaDainian Tomlinson way back in 2007. Some notable backs who don’t fit that threshold: Saquon Barkley (28), Christian McCaffrey (29), Derrick Henry (31), and Alvin Kamara (30).
40 — Over the last 20 seasons, not a single back with an Average Draft Position (ADP) outside the top 40 at his position has finished as the overall RB1.
0.7 — Of the last 20 top running back finishers, 17 averaged more than 0.7 fantasy points per touch the previous season. In other words, look for players who produced in bunches when the ball was in their hands. Seems reasonable.
4.8 — On the topic of producing with they had the opportunity, 16 of the last 20 overall RB1s averaged at least 4.8 yards per touch the season before.
0.3 — While snap counts in the preceding season varied greatly among the last 20 RB1s, what they did with those snaps didn’t. Sixteen of the 20 averaged at least 0.3 fantasy points per snap.
23 — This might be stating the obvious, but to have RB1 overall upside, a back needs to be utilized in the passing game. In our sample, 18 of the 20 players had at least 23 receptions the season before they were the RB1. Two players currently have an ADP inside the top 10 at the position but didn’t haul in 23 catches: Derrick Henry (19) and Jonathan Taylor (18).
0 — In the last 30 years, zero rookie running backs have finished as the overall RB1. Saquon Barkley came within 2.3 half-PPR points of bucking that trend in 2018, but he was the lone anomaly in at least three decades. To put it another way, the RB1 is unlikely to be Ashton Jeanty.
330 — Ray Rice in 2011 was the only one of the last 17 RB1s to total more than 343 touches the season before. Fifteen of the last 17 had fewer than 330 regular-season touches. That doesn’t bode well for five backs with a top-12 ADP at the position: Saquon Barkley (378), Bijan Robinson (365), Kyren Williams (350), Derrick Henry (344), and Josh Jacobs (337).
Historical running back workload trends
Since 2010, 42 running backs have totaled at least 337 touches in a season. Here are a couple of noteworthy trends. (Le’Veon Bell’s 2018 season is excluded since he sat out.)
113.9 — Those backs totaled, on average, 113.9 fewer PPR points the following season. More than two-thirds (31) of those players saw their overall production drop by at least 18% and half experienced total point declines of 33% or more.
3.9 — It wasn’t just that the heavy workloads led to missed action. Even when those players did suit up, production dropped by an average of 3.9 PPR points per game. Two-thirds of the backs endured per-game declines of more than 10%.
These five running backs garnered at least 337 touches last season: Saquon Barkley (378), Bijan Robinson (365), Kyren Williams (350), Derrick Henry (344), and Josh Jacobs (337).
So who are the fantasy football RB1 candidates?
Here are the four players who checked all the boxes (ranked in order of positional ADP):
Jahmyr Gibbs (2.7 ADP) – It’s not tough to make the case for Gibbs. He was the RB1 in PPR and was a mere 1.9 points behind Saquon in half-PPR formats. David Montgomery’s presence remains a big question mark. Gibbs averaged 16.9 half-PPR points in 13 games where Monty was healthy and 29.3 points in the four contests where he was banged up.De’Von Achane (6.7 ADP) – The case for Achane is an easy one as well. In 11 games with QB Tua Tagovailoa on the field, he averaged 19.5 half-PPR points. For context, only Saquon (21.2) and Gibbs (19.8) averaged more than 19.5 last season. The issue is that since his production is so closely correlated to Tua’s health, Achane is an injury risk on two fronts.Bucky Irving (9.7 ADP) – Over his final eight healthy contests last season, Bucky averaged 18.4 half-PPR points. This year’s highest-drafted back, Bijan Robinson, averaged 18.3 per game in 2024. It’s also worth noting that six of the last 16 overall RB1s have been second-year backs, far more than any other year.James Cook (14.3 ADP) – Among full-time backs, only Gibbs (1.12) averaged more fantasy points per touch last season than Cook (1.05). He’d need a sizable increase in touches to have a shot, but that’s within the realm of possibility. The 25-year-old averaged 16.4 touches per game over his final 14 games (including the playoffs). At his efficiency, a slight bump on that volume would put him in the Tier 1 conversation.Top fantasy football running back sleepers
These three backs missed the cutoff in receptions and ADP but hit all other benchmarks. Consider them my favorite late-round dart throws.
Some final notesBijan Robinson hit all the benchmarks but was eliminated by his touch total. It’s less of a concern than Saquon Barkley, who totaled a mind-boggling 482 touches between the regular season and playoffs.Chase Brown barely missed out on checking all the boxes (thanks for nothing, 4.77 yards per touch). He and Bijan would be No. 5 and No. 6 on this list, respectively.Derrick Henry had eclipsed 340 regular-season touches twice in his career. In the following seasons, his total points dipped by 43% and 19%, respectively. Something to keep in mind.Jonathan Taylor only missed the receptions threshold, but most of his efficiency metrics were right on the edge. The passing game question mark will be tough to overcome if Anthony Richardson is behind center for the Colts.Trends are broken all the time. So if your gut is telling you something, trust it.Finally, when drafting, don’t be afraid to be bold. In the wise words of Jerry Jones, “You can get hit by a car.”
All the NFL news on and off the field. Sign up for USA TODAY’s 4th and Monday newsletter.