Another injury-plagued season has done little to diminish the belief Fantasy owners have in Christian McCaffrey. His 2025 Fantasy football ADP has him as the eighth overall player being selected, as very few see him as ending up as a Fantasy football 2025 bust. Producing certainly isn’t an issue as he’s ranked among the top three running backs in Fantasy points in each of his last four healthy seasons. However, mixed in with those four standout years are three injury-riddled seasons in which he ranked outside the top 40 in positional Fantasy points in each.

Four out of seven is close to the flip of a coin as Fantasy owners know they’re taking a gamble by making McCaffrey one of their early 2025 Fantasy football picks. If you don’t want to take that risk, others like Jahmyr Gibbs, Josh Jacobs and De’Von Achane have similar ADPs and could be alternative options. Before finalizing your 2025 Fantasy football draft strategy, be sure to check out the 2025 Fantasy football rankings and cheat sheets from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

Last year, the model accurately predicted that Dolphins running back Raheem Mostert would fall well short of his ADP (RB23). The result: A season after rushing for over 1,000 yards and scoring 21 total touchdowns despite sharing time with De’Von Achane, Mostert fell out of favor in Miami and finished as RB60 after managing only 439 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns.

The same model has a proven track record providing Fantasy football tips, identifying A.J. Brown as a sleeper in 2020, nailing Jonathan Taylor’s monstrous season in 2021 and correctly predicting C.J. Stroud would take a step back in 2024. Additionally, it’s called past Fantasy football sleepers like Derrick Henry in 2019, Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara in 2018, and Davante Adams in 2017. 

Now, SportsLine has simulated the entire NFL season 10,000 times and released its latest Fantasy football rankings 2025, along with plenty of sleepers, breakouts and busts. Head to SportsLine now to see them. 

Top 2025 Fantasy football busts

One of the 2025 Fantasy football busts the model is predicting: Broncos running back J.K. Dobbins. After three injury-plagued seasons, Dobbins suited up for 13 games in 2024 with the Chargers and produced a career-high of 1,058 scrimmage yards, to go along with nine touchdowns. He was runner-up for Comeback Player of the Year and ranked 21st amongst running backs in Fantasy points. He then signed with Denver as a free agent but faces heavy competition for touches, in addition to a lengthy injury history.

Even in his career season, Dobbins missed four games a year ago and has played in just 22 (of a possible 68) games over the last four seasons. The Broncos used a second-round pick on RJ Harvey, who Sean Payton has also said will get the chance to be a three-down back. Denver also has Jaleel McLaughlin and Audric Estime returning, and they combined for over 900 scrimmage yards in 2024, so the Broncos backfield is trending towards one being by committee. Dobbins isn’t viewed as a top-25 Fantasy running back, or even a top 30 RB per the model, making him a potential Fantasy football bust 2025.

Another bust that SportsLine’s Fantasy football rankings 2025 have identified: Steelers running back Jaylen Warren. The Oklahoma State product spent the last two seasons behind Najee Harris on the depth chart, averaging 61.7 scrimmage yards per game. Warren has averaged 4.8 yards per carry in his career, but he has never averaged more than 8.8 carries per game in any of his three seasons.

While Harris is no longer on the roster, Warren’s workload might not increase significantly. Pittsburgh drafted Iowa running back Kaleb Johnson, who had more than 1,500 rushing yards and 21 touchdowns last season. Warren is being drafted before running backs like Zach Charbonnet, Najee Harris and Javonte Williams, but they are all available later in most Fantasy drafts. See which other Fantasy football busts 2025 to pick here.

How to find proven 2025 Fantasy football rankings

SportsLine is also fading one of the first five running backs off the board in early 2025 Fantasy football drafts. The model ranks this player falling outside the top 10 entirely and failing to live up to his first-round price tag. You can only see who it is, and the 2025 Fantasy football rankings for every player, at SportsLine.

So which 2025 Fantasy Football busts should you be steering clear of? And which first-round RB shockingly falls out of the top 10 of the positional rankings? Visit SportsLine now to get 2025 Fantasy Football cheat sheets for every single position, all from the model that helped managers avoid a disastrous Raheem Mostert season in 2024.

2025 Fantasy football ADP

(PPR, via CBS)

1. Ja’Marr Chase (1.78)
2. Bijan Robinson (2.62)
3. Saquon Barkley (3.14)
4. Jahmyr Gibbs (4.26)
5. Justin Jefferson (7.20)
6. CeeDee Lamb (7.83)
7. Derrick Henry (10.14)
8. De’Von Achane (10.42)
9. Christian McCaffrey (11.09)
10. Malik Nabers (12.87)