ESPN’s Bill Barnwell believes that the Jacksonville Jaguars are one of a few teams this season that can go from worst to first in their division.

So what gives Barnwell that confidence? There are a few reasons.

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The first is that, as bad as things got last season, the Jaguars found themselves in many of their games late. Barnwell notes that 13 of the Jaguars’ 17 games were decided by one score. In nine of the Jaguars’ 10 close losses, Jacksonville had the ball with a chance to hold on to or take a lead late in the fourth quarter.

However, in those 13 games, the Jaguars were just 3-10. Offseason changes aside, mathematically speaking, if the Jaguars found themselves in those same situations this season, the likelihood is that they’d win more than three games.

Another reason for optimism is turnovers. The Jaguars’ nine takeaways were the fewest in football last season. Under new defensive coordinator Anthony Campanile, the Jaguars are now a zone-heavy team with a vision-based approach on the back end. In short, this means keeping all eyes on the quarterback, which hopefully leads to more ball production.

The third reason Barnwell mentioned was the offseason overhaul the Jaguars went through. This starts with hiring Liam Coen, who was able to turn around the Tampa Bay running game in one season, which then had a massive impact on the passing game results.

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A strong running game to lean on and Coen’s scheme built on multiplicity and throwing a variety of looks at opponents can help take some of the playmaking burden off Trevor Lawrence’s shoulders.

The roster has also experienced numerous changes, with over half the players on the Jaguars’ 90-man not having been on the team last season.

And while strength of schedule isn’t the be-all, end-all, the Jaguars do have the ninth-easiest schedule this season on paper, perhaps providing them with the opportunity to stack some wins.

“I’m confident the defensive turnovers will bounce back, and that alone should improve them, but their chances of the sort of turnaround they made in 2022 might come down to how quickly their many new faces fit into the lineup and whether Lawrence stays on the field for 17 games,” Barnwell wrote.

This article originally appeared on Jaguars Wire: Worst to first? Why Jaguars can make jump in 2025 NFL season