Jeff Hafley worked wonders with the Green Bay Packers defense in his first year as an NFL coordinator, but while the arrow looks like it is pointing up, maintaining the same level of play from 2024 will be easier said than done.

The conventional wisdom is that offensive success is more reliable in terms of carrying it over year to year, while defensive performance can be volatile, fluctuating from one season to the next. That idea is born out in the stats.

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Using expected points added on defense (EXP), the Packers ranked 5th in the NFL a season ago. By analyzing the top ten defenses in expected points added each year between 2019 and 2023, it becomes clear how difficult it is to rank at the top of the league in back to back seasons.

Of the 50 top-ten defenses in EXP, 30 of them failed to rank in the top ten the following season. A further seven defenses finished lower within the top ten, meaning 74% of top-ten units did not perform as well the next year.

Seven defenses maintained their exact ranking within the top ten and only six improved their standing the next season. Eight of the top ten defenses in 2023 fell out of the top ten entirely in 2024, while the Ravens fell from 1st to 10th, and the Steelers improved just one spot from tenth to ninth.

Let’s look at the top five, where Green Bay ranked in 2024. Only 11 of the 25 top-five defenses between 2019 and 2023 finished in the top ten the next year. Just two of the 20 defenses ranked between two and four improved in the following season, with a further two holding their ranking.

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The Packers have a chance to be one of the units to buck the regression trend, given their front four underperformed in terms of rushing the passer a year ago, with the defense relying on Hafley manufacturing pressure, which he did effectively.

If Rashan Gary, Lukas Van Ness, Kenny Clark and Devonte Wyatt can enjoy a more fruitful 2025, it could make the overall defense more dangerous

A full season of Edgerrin Cooper playing how he did down the stretch in 2024 is an exciting prospect, while Quay Walker will look to continue the improved play he exhibited in the second half of the season.

Green Bay could get more consistent performances from its secondary if Keisean Nixon, Carrington Valentine, Evan Williams and Javon Bullard take a step, and replacing the oft-injured Jaire Alexander and underwhelming Eric Stokes with Nate Hobbs may also provide a boost.

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However, there is a world where the defense regresses. The Packers ranked third in the NFL in turnover percentage in 2024 at 16.2%, and turnovers are extremely prone to variance year on year. Fewer takeaways would naturally lead to a less effective defense overall.

The defensive front could fail to make the jump the Packers are hoping for. Edgerrin Cooper could have a sophomore slump, which is not uncommon. Walker’s late-season progress could be proven to be just a hot streak.

The revamped cornerback group could fall flat without a player like Alexander who opposing quarterbacks do not want to throw at. Then there is the ever looming threat of injuries, which are unpredictable and can ravage a position group or an entire team.

There are plenty of reasons why the Packers could improve or regress on defense in 2025, but looking at the defenses who have sustained defensive success, the coordinator himself has been the key.

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Here is the list of teams who have stayed in the top ten in EXP for multiple seasons in a row since 2019, and their defensive play caller:

Rams (Wade Phillips to Brandon Staley to Raheem Morris)

Patriots (Bill Belichick)

It is a who’s who of the most well known defensive minds in the game, and the other commonality? All but two of the coaches listed were, or subsequently became head coaches.

Defensive coordinators who sustain success from one year to the next are almost always hired as head coaches soon thereafter.

Another similar, although slightly different example is Mike Macdonald, who led Baltimore to be the number one defense in EXP in 2023. He became Seattle’s head coach in 2024, immediately taking them from 30th to 7th in EXP, while the Ravens fell from 1st to 10th under new DC Zach Orr.

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What will truly dictate Green Bay’s ability to field one of the league’s best defenses again in 2025 is Hafley, and whether he is truly in the same category of the coaches listed above. If he is, the Packers will face a fight to keep hold of him in 2026.

This article originally appeared on Packers Wire: Can Jeff Hafley and Packers defense buck NFL regression trend in 2025?