The Bills fortunes began to change for the better when they selected QB Josh Allen with the seventh overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft. Beyond the Patriots hoping for the same lift from their young QB, there are several comparisons to draw between the two. Allen was a raw but incredibly talented prospect. Like Patriots rookie Drake Maye, Allen didn’t have instant success in the league, finishing his rookie season with comparable stats to Maye’s numbers. Many of his teammates have referred to Maye as “Josh Allen 2.0” due to his similar skill set. Both quarterbacks have great size, elite arm talent, plus-mobility, and poise. The two passers can win from the pocket, but their superpower is creating plays out of structure.
The hope is that Maye, who has flashed franchise quarterback potential, will develop into the Patriots version of Allen. However, the steps the Bills took to get Allen to this point were critical to his success. Even as an Allen fan, you have to admit that it easily could’ve gone the other way for him. Allen was a volatile prospect who needed the proper development early in his career. Many pundits doubted that Allen would develop into a starting quarterback, let alone the current MVP frontrunner.
On a positive note, Maye is slightly ahead of Allen at this point in his career. For example, in Allen’s first-ever start vs. the Patriots, he completed just 48.8% of his passes with two interceptions and a QBR of 16.5 out of 100. Allen’s accuracy was erratic, he didn’t see the field well, and although the raw ability was there, putting the whole package together was considered a stretch at times. To Allen’s credit, he worked at his craft to improve.
Along with pairing him with quarterback developer Brian Daboll for his first four seasons, the Bills traded for star receiver Stefon Diggs to expedite Allen’s development. They then continued drafting talent on offense and pivoted away from Diggs in the second stage of Allen’s career, leaning more on explosive RB James Cook, first-round TE Dalton Kincaid, and shifty slot receiver Khalil Shakir while acquiring veteran Amari Cooper via trade. Buffalo has also built up its offensive line to sixth in pass-blocking win rate and 16th in run-blocking win rate this season.
Daboll became the head coach of the Giants due in some degree to his work with Allen. Buffalo initially got their replacement for Daboll wrong with Ken Dorsey but quickly course-corrected to up-and-coming play designer Joe Brady. As we’ll explain, the Allen-Brady pairing is on a heater. It’s the perfect blend of an elite quarterback peaking with a play-caller who can maximize Allen’s immense physical tools.
In this week’s preview, we’ll give you a sample of how Allen and Brady have propelled the Bills to the second-ranked offense in DVOA and points per game (31.8) this season. Plus, we’ll discuss Maye’s first matchup against Sean McDermott’s defense — ranked 10th in DVOA through 15 weeks — a system that even Tom Brady problems.
Let’s break down the schematic chess match between the Patriots and the Bills on Sunday.
Patriots Defense vs. Bills Offense: How the Bills Built a Scheme Around QB Josh Allen
After studying the Bills offense on film, the number one takeaway was how well Brady designs plays to put defenses in binds by leveraging Allen’s physical traits.
Following last week’s loss to the Cardinals, New England’s hesitancy to use Maye’s mobility as an advantage was a big talking point. The Pats have dabbled in play designs where Maye’s rushing ability is a factor, and the rookie ranks fourth among quarterbacks in scramble yards this season (361). However, it’s not something they’ve majored in yet, and a debate about how much the Patriots should feature Maye as a runner more came to a head when they were stuffed on consecutive traditional under-center runs, resulting in a turnover on downs at the Cardinals four-yard line last week.
When you watch the Bills offense, it’s intriguing to see what the Patriots might do in the future with Maye. Brady is a play-designing darling because he uses motion and formations to create space and numbers, which are advantages for Buffalo’s offense. The Bills rank fifth in motion rate, which they use to pull defenders out of the space they’re trying to attack in the defense. They’re also the league leader in trips (3×1, empty) usage and tap into 4×1 formational spacing. Although they have a great passing game, Buffalo is third in rush DVOA, and a lot of that revolves around Allen.