The hype for Arch Manning’s first season as the full-time starting quarterback at Texas has been off the charts; that’s what happens when you are the grandson of a memorable signal-caller and the nephew of a Pro Football Hall of Famer and, potentially, another.

Despite entering 2025 with fewer than 100 career passes to his name, the third generation of Manning quarterbacks carries national championship and Heisman expectations. Contrary to the words of The Bard, there can, in fact, be a lot in a name. It’s hard to argue that Arch would have such outsized external standards if he wasn’t the son of Archie Manning and the nephew of Peyton Manning and Eli Manning. His father Cooper Manning, older brother of Peyton and Eli, was a decorated high school receiver, but a diagnosis of spinal stenosis ended his collegiate career before it began at Ole Miss.

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Arch is not a completely unknown commodity as he steps under center for Texas. He has played enough to show the traits that have some marking him as a No. 1 overall pick in the NFL draft. That, of course, has led to rampant speculation on when a player who hasn’t been a full-time starter yet will declare and go pro.

Needless to say, there is a lot to talk about when it comes to Arch Manning. Here’s everything you need to know about the biggest storyline of the college football season.

Arch Manning college football career stats

Manning has a somewhat limited sample size coming into his first year as a starter, but there have been enough flashes to get excited.

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Manning has played in 12 career games, completing 63 of 95 attempts for 969 yards. His 66.3 completion percentage and 9-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio paint the picture of an efficient quarterback, and his 10.2 yards per attempt show he’s willing to air it out.

Manning has started two games, both coming in 2024 as a redshirt freshman. After coming on in relief of an injured Quinn Ewers and accounting for five touchdowns in Week 3 against UTSA, Manning made some freshman mistakes in his first career start against Louisiana-Monroe. He threw for 258 yards and two touchdowns but only completed 51.7% of his passes and tossed two interceptions. He improved significantly the next week against Mississippi State, completing 26 of his 31 passes for 325 yards and accounting for three touchdowns.

Arch Manning Heisman Trophy odds

As of noon EST on Sat., Aug. 23, Manning is the favorite to win the Heisman Trophy Award at +650 odds per DraftKings. Two other signal-callers, LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier and Clemson’s Cade Klubnik, have the next best odds at +900. Ohio State receiver Jeremiah Smith is fourth at +1100.

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Can Arch Manning lead Texas to the national championship?

The Longhorns made it to the national semifinals last season and enter 2025 as the No. 1 team in the AP Top 25, so this is certainly a team capable of winning it all. Texas is on an even shorter list when considering that, in the 11 years of the College Football Playoff, no team ranked outside the preseason top six has won the championship.

Of course, if we’re going by historical stats, it’s also true that only two teams in the 21st century have won the title after entering the season atop the AP’s rankings – USC in 2004, and Alabama in 2017. Ultimately, it will be up to Manning and his teammates to decide the results on the field.

Arch Manning 2025 Texas Longhorns season preview, predictions

Texas’ 2025 schedule sets up in interesting fashion for Manning’s development.

Game

Date

Opponent

1

Aug. 30, 2025

at No. 3 Ohio State

2

Sep. 6, 2025

vs. San Jose State

3

Sep. 13, 2025

vs. UTEP

4

Sep. 20, 2025

vs. Sam Houston

5

Oct. 4, 2025

at No. 15 Florida

6

Oct. 11, 2025

vs. No. 18 Oklahoma (N)

7

Oct. 18, 2025

at Kentucky

8

Oct. 25, 2025

at Mississippi State

9

Nov. 1, 2025

vs. Vanderbilt

10

Nov. 15, 2025

at No. 5 Georgia

11

Nov. 22, 2025

vs. Arkansas

12

Nov. 28, 2025

vs. No. 19 Texas A&M

That opener at the defending champion Ohio State Buckeyes is as premier a matchup as we will see this season. The following three games and the ensuing bye week will help the Longhorns gear up for the tests from Florida and Oklahoma.

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Road games at Kentucky and Mississippi State should be opportunities to build more confidence away from Austin, and Steve Sarkisian’s team shouldn’t have too much trouble with Vanderbilt at home before the second bye week. That extra week could prove crucial for a massive game at Georgia, which defeated Texas twice in 2024, including in the SEC Championship Game.

Texas will wrap up with home games against Arkansas and Texas A&M. The Aggies hung tight before losing to the Longhorns last year and will look to get their lick back in this rekindled rivalry.

The Longhorns boast an elite roster, so they don’t necessarily need Manning to be incredible to get where they want to go. There will be growing pains on the road against a team of Ohio State’s talent, but the Buckeyes are breaking in an unproven QB of their own in Julian Sayin. Florida and Oklahoma will provide major tests, but Texas has the better overall team in both those matchups.

That game at Georgia is the biggest road bump I see, especially against a team that seemed to have the Longhorns’ number last season. That will be the one regular season loss I am predicting, but I think Texas gets its revenge on Georgia in the SEC Championship Game. Without the benefit of home field advantage, the Bulldogs won’t be able to limit Manning and the Longhorns’ offense as much, and I don’t trust Gunner Stockton to keep up in a shootout.

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That will send Texas to the College Football Playoff as a top-two seed, but I don’t see a title run in the cards. It feels like too much to ask from a first-year starting quarterback. An extended run similar to last season feels right, ending in the semifinals or perhaps the final.

Manning will struggle at times in some of those tougher road games, but he should put up strong numbers overall, clearing 3,500 passing yards and accounting for 35-plus touchdowns. He will be a Heisman Trophy finalist but will not win the award – for now.

Will Arch Manning declare for the NFL draft?

Manning will undoubtedly be selected in the NFL draft. Listed at 6-foot-4 and 219 pounds with a strong arm and plus running skills, he hits all the physical benchmarks NFL teams look for in a franchise quarterback. His mechanics are pristine, and he uses them well to attack defenses on downfield throws. He needs to prove these traits over a larger sample, but the early indications are good.

The question that has generated so much attention is when that draft will be. He will be eligible for the 2026 NFL Draft given that he will be three years out of high school, and he could be part of a much-hyped quarterback class.

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Is that the best move for Manning, though? If he declares for the 2026 draft, he will only have one year as a starter under his belt. Both of his famous uncles stayed in school through their senior years and accrued three full seasons of experience.

And then there are the comments made by his family, which leads us to…

What did Archie Manning say about Arch Manning?

According to a story from Texas Monthly earlier this summer, Archie Manning said of his grandson’s chances of entering the 2026 NFL Draft, “Arch isn’t going to do that. He’ll be at Texas.”

Those were notable words coming from the Manning patriarch, as can be seen from the family’s reaction. At SEC media days, the younger Arch said, “I don’t know where he got that from. He texted me to apologize about that. I’m really just taking it day by day right now.”

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Archie also reportedly clarified to ESPN’s Dave Wilson that he wasn’t making any definitive assertions about his grandson’s future.

“I thought that the thing that I said was that to name Arch to postseason awards and start placing him in the NFL draft was ridiculous when he hadn’t played,” he reportedly told ESPN. “But then, of course, then the fact I said that he might be at Texas, that’s just an assumption on my part.”

There has been buzz all summer that Arch would stay at Texas rather than jumping to the NFL as soon as he was eligible. Given his sky-high NIL valuation, he doesn’t necessarily need the pro pay day. Still, there is no clear indication that he has made his mind up one way or another, so we’ll just have to wait and see.