Stan Son breaks down the projected target share by position for the Indianapolis Colts ahead of the 2025 fantasy football season.

After bottoming out in 2022 and “earning” the right to select fourth in the NFL draft, the Indianapolis Colts looked to turn the page and start fresh with a new franchise quarterback and head coach. Shane Steichen was brought in to lead the franchise while Anthony Richardson was the hopeful new face of the franchise.

After records of 9-8 and 8-9 over the last two seasons, the Colts rebuild is in good shape, right?

The offense ranked 15th and 13th in yards and 10th and 17th in points, but Richardson only played 15 games and completed 50.6% of his passes. Gross. Daniel Jones was brought in the offseason to provide competition and hopefully stabilize the quarterback position. Read that last sentence again.

Last season, the Colts were 27th in pass rate at 52.3%. In 2023, the 56.22% pass rate ranked 22nd. The Colts will likely be toward the bottom of pass rate once again this upcoming season.

Colts target share overview

The Colts have the fifth-ranked offensive line heading into 2025, so that should help the run-leaning ways and deficiencies at quarterback.

The big change for the Colts will be on defense, as Gus Bradley has been replaced by Lou Anarumo.

Bradley was the defensive coordinator for the Colts the last three seasons. His defenses finished 24th, 28th and 28th in points while being 29th, 24th and 15th in yards.

Anarumo began his coaching career in 1989 at the college ranks. He entered the NFL in 2012 and has been a defensive coordinator the last six seasons in Cincinnati. His teams ranked in the 20s four times for points allowed but there were two seasons with a 17th and sixth finish. For yards, his units ranked in the 20s three times with a 31st finish two seasons ago. On the high end, there were two seasons with 18th and 16th finishes.

The scheme change will likely be massive, as Bradley relied more on simplicity and speed while Anarumo utilizes multiple fronts and coverages depending on the opponent.

The Colts had one of the worst defenses last season, and the offensive pass rate was still toward the bottom of the league. The defense could get worse, but probably not by much. There is some unknown upside, but I’d side with the view that it will take time for the players to adjust to the new scheme.

Overall, I doubt the Colts increase the pass rate, especially since Richardson and Jones don’t provide the highest amount of optimism if thrown the keys to the offense.

Last season, the Colts provided the fourth-lowest team targets. Wide receivers garnered 71.5% of those, the third-highest mark in the NFL. Running backs saw 13.2% while tight ends saw 15.3%.

Now, let’s take a look at how the targets should be distributed in Indianapolis this season.

Wide receivers

Michael Pittman Jr. led the team with 111 targets and a 24.3% target share. He should be the alpha once again, but that’s not saying much, as he averaged a paltry 10.4 fantasy points in PPR leagues last season, good for 48th among wide receivers.

Josh Downs finished with 107 targets and a 25.6% target share in 14 games. His aDOT was 6.9 and he should continue getting peppered with high-percentage looks.

Alec Pierce is the deep threat and player that takes the top off defenses. He had 69 targets and a 14.3% target share. If Richardson is the quarterback, Pierce will likely maintain that target share. If Jones is under center, I think that number dips down to 10% or lower.

Adonai Mitchell had 55 targets and a 11.2% target share. He only played in 383 snaps, and I think playing time will be an issue once again. He has been performing well in the offseason, though, but in a run-heavy offense with the depth chart full ahead of him, Mitchell would likely need an injury to be more of a factor.

Tight ends

Kylen Granson had 31 targets and a 6.3% target share while Mo Alie-Cox finished with 22 targets and a 4.5% target share.

The Colts used their 14th pick in the 2025 NFL draft on tight end Tyler Warren. He’s 6’6″, 256 pounds and runs a 4.69 40-yard dash. He had a 30.2% college dominator rating, which was in the 90th percentile. Warren has been making spectacular catches in offseason practices, making both quarterbacks look good. In the preseason games, he’s been on the field at all times and earned targets.

I think Pittman and Downs lose some target share to Warren, who could be in the high-teens to low-20s for target share.

Running backs

Jonathan Taylor led the group with 31 targets and an 8% target share. I don’t think the running backs will be heavily involved in the passing game once again.