Safe. Maybe. Possibly.
Those aren’t the words we’ll use for these North Carolina football predictions entering the 2025 season, Bill Belichick’s debut year as head coach of the Tar Heels. Let’s approach the “Chapel Bill” era with some bold takes for UNC, which opens with TCU on Sept. 1 (8 p.m., ESPN) at Kenan Stadium.
With more than 70 newcomers on the 2025 roster, there are more questions than answers surrounding the Tar Heels as they try to bounce from a 6-7 record and Mack Brown’s final season in Chapel Hill.
Option against playing it safe, here are three bold predictions for the Tar Heels in their first season under Belichick.
UNC football will have top-25 defense with Bill Belichick
It’s been 16 years since a UNC defense has allowed fewer than 23 points per game. That changes this season with Bill Belichick, who will help the Tar Heels produce a top-25 defense for the first time since finishing 14th in defense under Butch Davis in 2009 (17.1 ppg). Across the last six seasons, UNC has allowed an average of 28.4 points per game, with an average finish of 77th in scoring defense during that stretch. A top-50 finish this season would be reasonable, but the bold pick is rolling with a top-25 unit in Belichick’s first college football season.
Gio Lopez, Davion Gause, UNC rushing offense will reach 40 TDs
No Omarion Hampton, no problem for UNC’s rushing offense. With an improved offensive line – if some key players can get healthy and stay healthy – and a mobile quarterback in South Alabama transfer Gio Lopez, the Tar Heels will lean on a plethora of options out of the backfield to reach 40 rushing touchdowns this season. That mark would match the single-season record set by the 2015 squad, which saw running back Elijah Hood and quarterback Marquise Williams combine for 30 rushing TDs. Lopez, along with sophomore running back Davion “Bullet” Gause and Michigan transfer Benjamin Hall, will spread the wealth in one of the ACC’s most efficient rushing offenses.
Tar Heels will win 10 games in Bill Belichick’s debut season
UNC has only reached double-digit wins once this century, racking up 11 wins in 2015. Bill Belichick will get it done in his first season, helping the Tar Heels get to 10 victories for just the ninth time in program history. If UNC gets there, Belichick would be the first coach in program history to accomplish that feat in his first season. There are noticeable, potential landmines on the 2025 schedule, including the opener against TCU and a matchup with Clemson to kick off October, but it isn’t an overwhelming slate. The $10 million man will reach 10 wins and get UNC football fans excited about the future of the program.
Rodd Baxley covers Duke, North Carolina and N.C. State for The Fayetteville Observer as part of the USA TODAY Network. Follow his ACC coverage on X/Twitter or Bluesky: @RoddBaxley. Got questions regarding those teams? Send them to rbaxley@fayobserver.com.