You know it’s football season when people start talking about their bets, as if you care. But Chicago columnist Jon Greenberg and Browns beat writer Zac Jackson are once again hoping you do. Who knows, you might win some money by tailing (or fading) them.
JON GREENBERG: The kids are back in school, there’s a slight chill in the air in the morning, the lines for high-school football games in Ohio are out, people are arguing online about Shedeur Sanders’ preseason snaps.
We were last seen together on these pages picking the Chiefs and the over in the Super Bowl, so we were half right and half wildly wrong.
Last season, I went 77-62-1 and you went 68-73 (this doesn’t count our Super Bowl prop bet suggestions or NFL futures bets). I’m assuming you’re too busy fending off angry DMs about Sanders to dissect your record, but I went through mine and found that I was 48-30-1 in NFL games (43-23 in the regular season for a 65 percent winning percentage) and 29-32 in college football. It was a bull market for NFL favorites last season. I only wish I bet heavy on my picks and invested the money. I’d be relaxing in Athens (Ohio, not Greece) instead of writing this column from a couch in my messy office.
We skipped Week 0, but we’re here for the first full week of college football and some NFL futures bets.
Last season, I went 0-3 in NFL futures, while you went 1-3, hitting on Myles Garrett to repeat as Defensive Player of the Year at +800.
Let’s talk about what we like this year. We’ll start with the big one.
There are basically five picks to win the Super Bowl and the field. The Ravens, Bills and Eagles are all +700, the Chiefs are +800 and the Lions are +1000. Each of us should pick one, unless, of course, you like the field.
ZAC JACKSON: You were unbelievably good on NFL picks last year. I hope you continue that, and I hope you spent your winnings wisely.
Meanwhile, I’m raising a child who just forgot his Chromebook on the third day of school and trying to figure out a way to clear my schedule so I can get to Akron-Wyoming Thursday night. How often are the Cowboys ever going to play five miles from my front door? How is a kid gonna look up college lines in biology class if he doesn’t have his Chromebook?
As for NFL futures, I’m fairly bullish on your Steelers but not enough to pick them to win the whole thing. The Browns’ season win total under should be a winner because those rookie quarterbacks are likely going to be playing sooner rather than later. The Eagles are probably the best team from 1-53 again, though the Ravens might disagree.
If I were riding an NFL future, it would be on the Bengals to win the whole thing at a nice price. If Joe Burrow gets any kind of blocking, why couldn’t they win a lot of games 41-38?
GREENBERG: For housekeeping, I’m marking you down for Bengals +2000 to win the Super Bowl and Browns under 4.5 wins.
The Browns are +400 to finish with exactly four victories. Meanwhile, the team I cover, the Chicago Bears, is +400 to win eight or nine games. That’s a coin flip bet.
I picked the Ravens to win it all in our staff survey, so I’ll go with them again. How about the Ravens to beat the Eagles at +3000? The odds are the same for Bills-Eagles, too.
I like combing through division finish futures. I’ll go AFC North with Ravens, Steelers, Bengals, Browns for +300 and Lions, Vikings, Packers, Bears for +700.
As for player props, TreVeyon Henderson is +1200 for offensive Rookie of the Year and his former teammate Emeka Egbuka is +1500. Both great values but I’ll go with Henderson.
T.J. Watt is +900 to take Defensive Player of the Year. I think he breaks Garrett’s stranglehold on the award this year and wins his second.
Any college futures? Last year, you nailed the Bowling Green win total but missed on Texas.
JACKSON: I had a few college futures and win totals circled, but the best numbers are long gone. You and I aren’t sharps, as our longtime readers know, and folks who study this stuff all year long tend to gobble up and move the best numbers. Did more than 6.5 people outside of Ohio know that Eddie George is now the coach at Bowling Green? That’s a fair line, but the BGSU win total under 6.5 for George’s first season is no longer widely available.
No, Toledo isn’t going to make the College Football Playoff — but the Rockets might flirt with doing so. No, South Carolina is not going to win the SEC just because there’s a bunch of (valid) excitement about quarterback LaNorris Sellers. No, James Franklin and Drew Allar are not going to win the national title with Penn State. History says no and I say no, too.
Maybe Ohio State will repeat because with that kind of budget, should anything else be expected? If you’re really itching, I’d look at numbers on Utah and Louisville to make the playoff, and I’d put a couple bucks on a couple SEC quarterbacks, Garrett Nussmeier and DJ Lagway, to win the Heisman.
I can’t promise a winning season, though I promise to try. I promise we’ll get a couple MAC-adjacent winners along the way and have some fun.
GREENBERG: As evidenced by my college record last year, I’m not great at picking these games. So I’ll do a theme this week and only pick Ohio colleges.
I’ve got Ohio State -1.5, though I think Texas and Arch Manning will put a scare into them. I’m enjoying the spin machine from the Buckeyes over their Dave Portnoy fiasco, but I think I’ll like watching their future All-Pros play even more.
I love Cincinnati +7 against Nebraska in Kansas City. The Bearcats’ offense should be good this year.
I initially liked Akron +7.5 over the Wyoming Cowboys in your backyard — which I’m sure could fit the expected crowd — but it’s down two points since I first looked at it on Monday. I’ll take over 2 1/2 hot dogs for you.
I also liked the Ohio University-Rutgers over, but it’s jumped 3 points in two days, so I’ll steer clear. The Bobcats are going into New Jersey with a veteran QB in Parker Navarro, so if you want to take the 15.5 points they’re getting, you’ve got a good shot.
Last, I’ll take Toledo +8.5 at Kentucky. The Rockets have a ton of starters returning, and I think they could win in Lexington.
JACKSON: Just three for me this weekend. I also can’t give a play on Akron-Wyoming because when I saw the spread at 7, it made me wonder how bad Wyoming is perceived to be. Akron has won 11 games since the end of 2018. Eleven! Total! The Zips are already bowl-banned for this season. I’m going to stay away from the spread here and focus on the concession stand.
Friday, I like Colorado-Georgia Tech under 51.5. It’s dropped from the 55 range, and that scares me a little, but I see a completely remade Colorado offense getting a real test in its first game. I also think that Colorado defensive coordinator Robert Livingston used to be a well-kept secret, and he’s not really a secret anymore. I see a 23-20 type of game here as both teams try to sort through standard early-season issues.
Saturday, I’ll take Ohio State at less than a field goal. No real analysis here other than this is a bit of an all-star game. I think probably Arch Manning, given time, will live up to at least some of the hype surrounding him. In Week 1 on the road, I’ll take the team that has the next Randy Moss and a bunch of studs at almost every position, even after losing a bunch of studs from last year’s team.
Sunday, I’ll take Virginia Tech +7.5 vs. South Carolina on a neutral site. All of these teams are so new in the portal era and need time, and I simply like more than a touchdown against a South Carolina defense that lost a ton.
(Photo of Ryan Day: Jason Mowry / Getty Images)