We finish our over/unders series with … well, not a bang, it’s the AFC South, but at least with an interesting division title race.

The betting odds have this being the tightest race in the AFC with all four teams – even the Titans – at +650 or better to take home the crown. The reason, of course, is that no one expects anyone in this division to be any good! The Houston Texans have the highest projected DVOA in the division, and they rank 15th, and so just barely squeak over the above-average bar. The Jacksonville Jaguars have the highest win projection, thanks to a significantly easier schedule – it turns out, getting the Panthers, Bengals and Jets instead of the Ravens, Bills and Buccaneers really does improve your chances. But both would be considered longshots in any other division in the league; they’re only division favorites because the AFC South is the JV of the NFL.

That’s the glass-half-empty look at things, at the very least – an 18-week competition to see who gets to lose to, say, the AFC West runner up come January. But there’s a more positive way of looking at the division, as well – it’s a land of possibility. Not just in the “sometimes, a team expected to be average ends up good” sort of sense, but in that with the bar set so low, it doesn’t take much to make 2025 a memorable season for a team in this division. And an improvement doesn’t have to be smooth and uninterrupted to cash in this year – a team can struggle early, see their young players catch on fire late, and actually get to participate in the playoffs this year rather than simply hoping that late-season improvement lasts until next season.

Maybe the Texans have fixed their patchwork offensive line, and C.J. Stroud will once again look like the quarterback destined to be up there with the Mahomes and Allens of the world like he during his rookie season. Maybe the Jaguars finally have a receiving corps which will unlock the potential people swear up and down Trevor Lawrence still has. Maybe the Titans, with their top pick quarterback – whose name will come to me any moment, I swear – will find one of those rare, great-from-the-get go players who can lead an otherwise limited roster into immediate success. And maybe Anthony Richardson Sr. will…

…oh. Well, the Colts also play in this division, and with the bar not that high, maybe even Daniel Jones can find a way to nine wins and a playoff berth. It’s still August; optimism can still run free for a couple more weeks, at least.

Previous Divisions:
NFC West
NFC North
NFC East
NFC South
AFC West
AFC North
AFC East

And remember, you can search for the best odds on these, or any other props with our Prop Shop.