We wrap up the NFC portion of our over/unders by heading down South, as we have in fact saved the worst for last. Six of the eight divisions have at least one team projected over 10 wins. Six of the eight divisions have at least one team with a projected double-digit DVOA. Six of the eight divisions have at least one team with a 5% chance of winning the Super Bowl in our latest projections. The exceptions to each and every one of those facts are the NFC and AFC South.

Neither South division has had a team with double-digit DVOA since Tampa Bay in 2021, though last year’s Buccaneers came the closet yet to re-cracking the 10% barrier. It’s not surprising that the Buccaneers would be the ones closest to impressive – Tampa Bay stands tall as the kings of a very unimpressive mountain, with four straight division titles to their name. In fact, only the Chiefs and Bills have longer postseason streaks than Tampa Bay, who still boast quite a few players from their Super Bowl LV-winning team and have benefitted greatly from the surprise Baker Mayfield renaissance. If any team from either South is going to make noise this year, the smart money would it being Tampa Bay, continuing their NFC South dynasty back into contention with the actual contenders.

That said, don’t write this divisional race off just yet. While the Buccaneers are the only team in this division in the top half of the league, the Atlanta Falcons aren’t entirely without hope! A strong offense with a high ceiling thanks to a second-year quarterback could lead Atlanta to cracking Tampa Bay’s grip on the division. They’ll probably also need their defense to physically exist in space, but at least they acknowledged their pass-rushing problems this offseason, which is the first step towards recovery. The Buccaneers are favorites for a reason, but it would be far from the biggest shock in the world if Michael Penix Jr. and company turn in at least a semi-memorable year.

The Carolina Panthers are trendy picks for some people out there, all of whom presumably have not read the Almanac. The New Orleans Saints are not trendy picks for some people out there, but they’ll all be made fools of when it turns out the Saints have the Right Shough. Possibly. I mean, stranger things have happened. Allegedly.

Previous Divisions:
NFC West
NFC North
NFC East
AFC West
AFC North
AFC East

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