While Arch Manning is only entering his first season as Texas football’s starting quarterback, it won’t stop the masses from chattering about his NFL draft future.
Manning, a former five-star recruit and top-ranked quarterback out of high school, is set to lead the No. 1 Longhorns in 2025 after serving as a backup to Quinn Ewers the past two seasons. Expectations are sky high for the redshirt sophomore, of course, which comes with the name given his family ties.
Advertisement
PATH TO PLAYOFF: Sign up for our college football newsletter
The 6-foot-4 quarterback still has two seasons of college eligibility remaining after 2025, as he redshirted in 2023 for what would’ve been his true freshman season. He’s able to declare for the 2026 NFL Draft, however, since he’s in his third year removed from high school.
There’s a decent chance Manning stays in college for the 2026 season, a sentiment echoed by his grandfather, former Ole Miss and New Orleans Saints quarterback Archie Manning. Archie Manning said he doesn’t think Manning will declare for the upcoming NFL draft, opting to stay in school (though Arch Manning later clarified he is assessing his options).
If he declares, Manning is expected to be one of, if not the top quarterback prospects of the draft class along with names such as LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier, South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers and Clemson’s Cade Klubnik, among others.
Advertisement
Here’s where Manning’s NFL draft stock stands heading into the 2025 season:
REQUIRED READING: Archie Manning downplays Arch Manning in 2026 NFL Draft: ‘He’ll be at Texas’
1 / 14
Must-see moments from 2025 college football Week 0 action
Kansas wide receiver Cam Pickett (7) is tackled by Fresno State defensive back Al’zillion Hamilton.
1 / 14
Must-see moments from 2025 college football Week 0 action
Kansas wide receiver Cam Pickett (7) is tackled by Fresno State defensive back Al’zillion Hamilton.
2 / 14
Must-see moments from 2025 college football Week 0 action
Fans cheer as three F-35 Lightning fighter jets fly over David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium prior to a game between the Kansas Jayhawks and the Fresno State Bulldogs.
3 / 14
Must-see moments from 2025 college football Week 0 action
UNLV’s Jai’Den Thomas (9) drives against Idaho State’s Jacob Martin (21) at Allegiant Stadium.
4 / 14
Must-see moments from 2025 college football Week 0 action
Iowa State quarterback Rocco Becht holds up the trophy after defeating Kansas State during the Aer Lingus Classic between Iowa State and Kansas State at Aviva Stadium in Dublin, Ireland.
5 / 14
Must-see moments from 2025 college football Week 0 action
Iowa State player Abu Sama III is tackled by Donovan McIntosh of Kansas State during the Aer Lingus Classic between Iowa State and Kansas State at Aviva Stadium on Aug 23, 2025.
6 / 14
Must-see moments from 2025 college football Week 0 action
Kansas State player Joe Jackson fumbles the ball during the Aer Lingus Classic against Iowa State at Aviva Stadium.
7 / 14
Must-see moments from 2025 college football Week 0 action
Iowa State player Dominic Overby scores a touchdown during the Aer Lingus Classic against Kansas State at Aviva Stadium.
8 / 14
Must-see moments from 2025 college football Week 0 action
Iowa State player Eli Green reaches for a pass against Austin Romaine of Kansas State during the Aer Lingus Classic at Aviva Stadium.
9 / 14
Must-see moments from 2025 college football Week 0 action
Kansas State players head to the field for the Aer Lingus Classic against Iowa State at Aviva Stadium in Dublin, Ireland on Aug 23, 2025.
10 / 14
Must-see moments from 2025 college football Week 0 action
Iowa State takes the field during the Aer Lingus Classic between against Kansas State at Aviva Stadium.
11 / 14
Must-see moments from 2025 college football Week 0 action
Kansas State cheerleaders during the Aer Lingus Classic against Iowa State at Aviva Stadium in Dublin, Ireland on Aug 23, 2025.
12 / 14
Must-see moments from 2025 college football Week 0 action
Iowa State fans arrive before the Aer Lingus Classic between Iowa State and Kansas State at Aviva Stadium in Dublin, Ireland on Aug. 23, 2025.
13 / 14
Must-see moments from 2025 college football Week 0 action
Kansas State takes the field during the Aer Lingus Classic against Iowa State at Aviva Stadium in Dublin, Ireland on Aug 23, 2025.
14 / 14
Must-see moments from 2025 college football Week 0 action
College football fans before the Aer Lingus Classic between Iowa State and Kansas State at Aviva Stadium in Dublin, Ireland on Aug. 23, 2025.
Arch Manning NFL draft projection
Manning’s NFL draft stock is hard to project, given the unknown of if he will declare or not.
Manning isn’t listed in many notable NFL mock drafts, including mocks from ESPN’s Matt Miller, who thinks Manning will stay in college after the 2025 season. Manning was also not included in former ESPN draft analyst Todd McShay’s mock draft.
ESPN’s Jordan Reid gave Manning a 5% chance of going No. 1 in 2025, largely due to the unknown of his draft status. Manning’s 5% nod from Reid was behind Klubnik (15%), Sellers (15%), Nussmeier (15%), Penn State’s Drew Allar (12%), Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza (12%) and Clemson edge rusher T.J. Parker (10%).
Advertisement
However, in mock drafts that do include Manning, he’s typically found atop the first round.
CBS Sports has Manning going No. 1 overall to the New Orleans Saints in its way-too-early mock draft, which would put Manning on the same team his grandpa played for from 1971-82. Manning was also at No. 1 to the Cleveland Browns in Fox Sports’ mock draft.
While Manning has to prove it on the field in 2025, he will certainly draw plenty of NFL draft consideration, especially if he lives up to the hype that has surrounded him since high school.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Arch Manning NFL draft projection: Will Texas QB declare in 2026?