After a rollercoaster of a rookie year that ended with a thrilling descent back into the station, quarterback Bo Nix is set to further solidify himself as the Broncos’ face of the franchise in 2025.

But quarterback development in the NFL is hardly linear, especially for draftees who are tossed into the fire. Here’s a look at both leaps and pitfalls for high-profile quarterbacks from Year 1 to Year 2 in the NFL since the heralded 2012 quarterback class (click here to view chart in mobile):

Player, team
Season
Record
Comp. %
Yds
Y/A
TD-INT
Rating

Bryce Young, Carolina
2023
2-14
59.8
2,877
5.5
11-10
73.7

2024
4-8
60.9
2,403
6.3
15-9
82.2

Comment: After a rough rookie year, the 2023 No. 1 pick was benched a few games into 2024, but showed notable growth after winning his job back later in the season.

C.J. Stroud, Houston
2023
9-6
63.9
4,108
8.2
23-5
100.8

2024
10-7
63.2
3,727
7.0
20-12
87.0

Comment: On the surface, Stroud dipped. Beyond the numbers, his receiving corps endured a rash of injuries, and he was actually better on intermediate throws over the middle.

Mac Jones, New England
2021
10-7
67.6
3,801
7.3
22-13
92.5

2022
6-8
65.2
2,997
6.8
14-11
84.8

Comment: Jones had a statistically similar rookie year to Nix, but collapsed under pressure his sophomore year and is now a backup in San Francisco.

Trevor Lawrence, J’ville
2021
3-14
59.6
3,641
6.0
12-17
71.9

2022
9-8
66.3
4,113
7.0
25-8
95.2

Comment: Lawrence took his lumps in his rookie year, but this is the ideal Year 1 to Year 2 trajectory for a No. 1 overall pick.

Justin Herbert, L.A. Chargers
2020
6-9
66.6
4,336
7.3
31-10
98.3

2021
9-8
65.9
5,014
7.5
38-15
97.7

Comment: Herbert had one of the best rookie years in NFL history and has only continued to sling it since.

Kyler Murray, Arizona
2019
5-10-1
64.4
3,722
6.9
20-12
87.4

2020
8-8
67.2
3,971
7.1
26-12
94.3

Comment: The elusive Murray got significantly better at handling pressure in his second season, brought down just 27 times after an NFL-leading 48 sacks as a rookie.

Dak Prescott, Dallas
2016
13-3
67.8
3,667
8.0
23-4
104.9

2017
9-7
62.9
3,324
6.8
22-13
86.6

Comment: Prescott’s accuracy on intermediate throws took a nosedive in Year 2, a worrisome trend that — despite an excellent NFL career — has occasionally come back to bite him.

Carson Wentz, Philadelphia
2016
7-9
62.4
3,782
6.2
16-14
79.3

2017
11-2
60.2
3,296
7.5
33-7
101.9

Comment: Wentz was terrible at handling pressure as a rookie and took a massive leap in Year 2, but had a wholly unsustainable touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay
2015
6-10
58.3
4,042
7.6
22-15
84.2

2016
9-7
60.8
4,090
7.2
28-18
86.1

Comment: Pretty much the same big-armed risk-taker he was as a rookie, and has been pretty much the same dude ever since.

Derek Carr, Oakland
2014
3-13
58.1
3,270
5.5
21-12
76.6

2015
7-9
61.1
3,987
7.0
32-13
91.1

Comment: Another ideal point for Year 1 to Year 2 development, Carr’s deep ball was significantly better in his second year with the Raiders.

Geno Smith, N.Y. Jets
2013
8-8
55.8
3,046
6.9
12-21
66.5

2014
3-10
59.7
2,525
6.9
13-13
77.5

Comment: Smith was terrible on short accuracy as a rookie and slightly improved his second year, but this is a far, far cry from his current Raiders iteration a decade later.

Robert Griffin III, Wash.
2012
9-6
65.6
3,200
8.1
20-5
102.4

2013
3-10
60.1
3,203
7.0
16-12
82.2

Comment: Griffin self-admittedly lost confidence in his second year after an offseason procedure on his knee, setting in motion a precipitous decline following his rookie of the year debut.

Russell Wilson, Seattle
2012
11-5
64.1
3,118
7.9
26-10
100.0

2013
13-3
63.1
3,357
8.2
26-9
101.2

Comment: Long before his disastrous tenure in Denver, Wilson burst onto the scene as a rookie with a tremendous deep ball and only improved there en route to a Super Bowl ring in Year 2.

Andrew Luck, Indianapolis
2012
11-5
54.1
4,374
7.0
23-18
76.5

2013
11-5
60.2
3,822
6.7
23-9
87.0

Comment: One of the most-hyped QB prospects of the last 25 years, second-year Luck dialed back on some of the risk-reward that muddied his rookie year.

Ryan Tannehill, Miami
2012
7-9
58.3
3,294
6.8
12-13
76.1

2013
8-8
60.4
3,913
6.7
24-17
81.7

Comment: Tannehill struggled notably as an intermediate thrower as a rookie, and still struggled in his second year, but later righted the ship across a solid NFL career.

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Originally Published: August 30, 2025 at 5:45 AM MDT