The Philadelphia Eagles may not have ended the regular season with the best record in the NFL last year, but they certainly proved they were the cream of the crop when all was said and done. 

Philadelphia split its first four games of the 2024 campaign but returned from its Week 5 bye to win 12 of its final 13 games to finish at 14-3, one game behind the Detroit Lions and Kansas City Chiefs for the best record. The Eagles then rolled to their second championship in eight years, defeating the Washington Commanders in the NFC Championship Game and two-time defending champion Chiefs in the Super Bowl by a combined total of 50 points. 

With question marks surrounding the Lions as a result of the departures of their offensive and defensive coordinators and a lot needing to go right for a few other teams, the Eagles are clear-cut favorites to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl for a second consecutive year. They also have the shortest odds in the conference to win the Vince Lombardi Trophy, as most of the major sportsbooks have Philadelphia at +700 to repeat as champion, while FanDuel Sportsbook has the team at +750.

The AFC picture is much foggier, however, as three teams are neck and neck to win Super Bowl LX. The Baltimore Ravens are the favorites to capture the championship with +700 odds at FanDuel and co-favorites at both DraftKings Sportsbook (+600) and BetMGM Sportsbook (+700) with the Buffalo Bills, who are favored at Caesars Sportsbook with +625 odds.

Kansas City, which has appeared in five of the last six Super Bowls and won three of them, is third among AFC teams at most major sportsbooks with +800 odds. DraftKings has the Chiefs at +850.

According to the SportsLine Projection Model, the Bills have a great chance at winning the Super Bowl for the first time in franchise history. The model sees Buffalo reigning supreme in more than 20% of its simulations. It has the Eagles repeating over 18% of the time and the Ravens capturing their third championship in nearly 18% of simulations.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, has already crunched the numbers on the 2025 season. The model has projections on each team’s playoff probability, as well as their chances to win the division, the conference and the Super Bowl. Based on the odds being offered at the top sportsbooks, there is value to be had.

Model’s AFC playoff projections and oddsModel’s NFC playoff projections and odds

While -360 at DraftKings on the Eagles to make the playoffs is extreme value based on the model’s projection of 91.0%, a bettor still has to wager $360 to win $100 and lock up that money for months to do so. According to the model, there is better value on teams such as the Vikings, Seahawks and Jaguars.

Now we’ll take a closer look at three of the model’s top plays to make the 2025 NFL postseason.

1. Pittsburgh Steelers (+144, FanDuel)Playoff probability model projection: 52.8%

The Steelers have qualified for the postseason 12 times during head coach Mike Tomlin’s tenure and did so each of the last two years with a carousel of quarterbacks. Kenny Pickett, Mitchell Trubisky and Mason Rudolph all started games in 2023, with the latter getting the call in Pittsburgh’s loss to Buffalo in the wild card round, while Justin Fields began last season as the team’s No. 1 before giving way to an aging Russell Wilson, who failed to get the club past Baltimore in their wild card matchup.

Granted, Aaron Rodgers is five years older than Wilson, but he has one of the best resumes in the history of the NFL. The 41-year-old, who signed a one-year contract with the Steelers in June following a pair of forgettable seasons with the New York Jets, is a four-time league MVP, as well as a Super Bowl champion and MVP. He also showed he still has something left, as he finished eighth in the NFL in 2024 with 3,897 passing yards and tied for seventh with 28 touchdown passes.

Pittsburgh parted ways with talented but problematic wideout George Pickens but acquired two-time Pro Bowler DK Metcalf, who is an experienced top target for Rodgers. The Steelers still are in a division with Baltimore and Cincinnati, but the Bengals have reached the playoffs only twice in Joe Burrow’s five seasons and were left on the outside looking in each of the past two years. With their lack of consistency and the history of success shared by Rodgers and Tomlin, Pittsburgh earning a postseason berth wouldn’t be the craziest thing that happens during the 2025 NFL season.

2. Minnesota Vikings (+116, FanDuel)Playoff probability model projection: 55.4%

In hindsight, having rookie quarterback J.J. McCarthy miss the entire 2024 season due to a knee injury suffered in training camp was one of the best things that could have happened to Minnesota. It meant Sam Darnold didn’t have anyone breathing down his neck to take the starting job, and he flourished, finishing fifth in the NFL in both passing yards (4,319) and TD tosses.

Darnold faltered down the stretch, however, and the Vikings allowed him to go to Seattle via free agency. That opened the door for McCarthy, who takes the reins after being selected 10th overall in the 2024 NFL Draft following his national championship win at Michigan the previous season.

The Vikings brought back ageless receiver Adam Thielen to add to an aerial attack that features superstar Justin Jefferson and tight end T.J. Hockenson, so McCarthy has a number of weapons at his disposal. Minnesota likely won’t match its 14-win total from last year, but the team is a solid choice to return to the playoffs, especially since NFC North rival Detroit is expected to take a step back.

3. Denver Broncos (-132, FanDuel)Playoff probability model projection: 59.1%

Some believe Kansas City’s dominance in the AFC West may be coming to an end, as its humiliating loss to Philadelphia in the Super Bowl could be the beginning of a downward path. The Chiefs have won nine consecutive division titles, but it would be shocking if they recorded 15 victories a second straight year, especially since several of those triumphs came in the waning seconds of the game.

One team that appears ready to take over in the division is the Broncos, who won five AFC West titles in a row prior to Kansas City’s current run. Denver went 8-9 in Sean Payton’s first year as head coach in 2023, a solid improvement from a 5-12 showing the previous season, and posted a winning record last campaign (10-7) for the first time since going 9-7 in 2016.

Payton’s arrival obviously has helped turn things around for the Broncos, while the play of rookie quarterback Bo Nix and a defensive unit that led the league in sacks (63), ranked third in points allowed (18.3), and also was third against the run (96.4 yards allowed) propelled the team to the playoffs for the first time in nine seasons. Continued improvement from Nix and a decline by the Chiefs could mean a division title in Denver, but the team also figures to be a strong candidate for a wild card berth.