Hope springs eternal in New England. But what exactly does improvement look like for the 2025 Patriots?
After back-to-back 4-13 seasons, can new head coach Mike Vrabel guide New England to its first playoff appearance since 2021?
That depends on a myriad of questions, from the health and production of new faces like Stefon Diggs to the development of second-year quarterback Drake Maye to the effectiveness of a revamped defense under new defensive coordinator Terrell Williams.
So, with Week 1 officially upon us — the Patriots open at home against the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday — we asked our Patriots Insiders Tom E. Curran and Phil Perry to peer into their crystal balls for the 2025 season and answer six “yes or no” questions about this year’s squad. (Note: Yard totals for Diggs and Maye are based on their current over/unders on the betting market.)
Below are their answers — which, as you might expect, didn’t always align.
Stefon Diggs will finish the season with more than 750 receiving yards. Yes or no?
Tom E. Curran: Yes
Stefon Diggs will finish the 2025 season with 71 catches for 816 yards and six TDs.
Sound robust? Consider this: As the Texans’ No. 2 receiver last year, Diggs had 47 catches for 496 yards and three touchdowns in eight games. He was targeted eight times per game (64 total targets) and only once did he see more than 10 passes in a game (12 targets, 10 catches, 94 yards in a 34-7 loss to the Vikings). He never had more than 100 yards receiving, with the high being that 94-yard game.
Diggs has never averaged fewer than 10 yards per catch in a season. He catches about 70 percent of the balls thrown his way. So, 100 targets and 71 catches sounds reasonable.
Phil Perry: Yes
Starting with a tough one here. I don’t believe Stefon Diggs will reach 1,000 yards. That would be remarkable for a receiver headed into his 32-year-old season coming off a torn ACL. It’s such a difficult injury to come back from, especially for a player at that position.
He looked healthy in training camp, but not uncoverable. That being said, yes, I do think he’ll be effective enough — and looked to frequently enough — to exceed 750 yards. My prediction is he’ll end up somewhere around 800 yards.
TreVeyon Henderson will lead all Patriots running backs in touches. Yes or no?
Tom E. Curran: No
TreVeyon Henderson will not lead the Patriots in running back touches. That will be Rhamondre Stevenson. Still.
Roll back to 2018, a season where the Patriots had a similar stable of backs in terms of skills. Sony Michel, the lead back, had 209 carries and seven catches. James White, who may be loosely compared to Henderson in terms of anticipated role, had 94 carries and 87 catches, good for 181 and second behind Michel.
While Henderson may get more carries per game than White did and Antonio Gibson could cut into Stevenson’s carries as well, the fumbling issues of 2024 are overshadowing the fact Stevenson is a really good runner when he doesn’t drop it.
He’s averaged 220 touches per season. He’ll still be the lead back.
Phil Perry: Yes
Henderson is this team’s home-run threat. They don’t have one at receiver or tight end. Outside of quarterback Drake Maye, it’s hard to pinpoint another offensive player you’d feel comfortable identifying as someone who will generate an explosive gain or two in a given week.
The Patriots know they have a potentially-special back in their midst, and yes, I believe he’ll lead that position group in touches. Let Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson share the between-the-tackles load. Give everything else to Henderson.
Drake Maye will exceed 500 rushing yards this season. Yes or no?
Tom E. Curran: Yes
Drake Maye will finish with 487 yards rushing this season. He had 421 in 13 games last year on 54 carries. He ripped off some long ones — including a 41-yarder against the Colts — that inflated the numbers a bit.
The Patriots want to use Maye’s legs, but not abuse the rest of him in doing so. They’ve worked pretty hard to make sure Maye understands to be a passer first.
But that shouldn’t mean that a 6-foot-4, 225-pounder who can scoot should be pocket-locked. And that’s why he’ll run for eight touchdowns.
Phil Perry: Yes
This is an easy yes. Maye picked up 421 yards rushing in just 12 games last season. Additionally, last year’s coaching staff was hesitant to call designed runs for Maye, limiting his rushing opportunities.
This season, he’ll be given the occasional designed touch. He may not have to scramble quite as frequently if his improved offensive line can hold up better than last year’s, but he’ll still scramble enough to exceed 500 yards on the ground.
Tom Curran and Kayla Burton discuss why Drake Maye needs to be poised when the lights get bright on game day for the team to be successful this year.
The Patriots will have THREE or more Pro Bowlers this season. Yes or no?
Tom E. Curran: Yes
The proposal is that the Patriots will have three Pro Bowlers. I’m interpreting that as “first-ballot, non-replacement Pro Bowler” not “getting in after 11 guys back out.” So my answer is … yes. Barely.
Brenden Schooler will make it as a special teamer. Marcus Jones will make it as a return specialist. Christian Gonzalez will make it at corner.
Maye, despite a fairly impressive sophomore season, isn’t up to cracking the level established by the Josh Allen-Lamar Jackson-Patrick Mahomes-Joe Burrow-Justin Herbert-C.J. Stroud AFC hierarchy.
TreVeyon Henderson, Milton Williams, Christian Barmore and Hunter Henry get some love sent their way as well, but they don’t crack the first crew of honorees.
Phil Perry: No
Pro Bowls? We’re talking Pro Bowls?!? I mean… sure. Three is possible if we’re going to include anyone who is allowed to partake in the festivities as a fill-in. But if we’re talking top-end Pro Bowl choices, there’s very little chance they get three.
I’d assume Christian Gonzalez is one. Maybe Christian Barmore or Milton Williams. Maybe TreVeyon Henderson. But as things stand now, I’ll say they get one real Pro Bowler. Not three.
The Patriots will have a top-10 defense (based on PPG allowed) this season. Yes or no?
Tom E. Curran: Yes
Last season, the team that was 10th in points (Miami) allowed 21.4 per game. In 2023, it was Green Bay allowing 20.6 per game in 10th. Points allowed is affected by myriad factors, and one that may be overlooked is how effectively an offense performs.
Presuming the Patriots are a more run-based team than they were in 2024 (or could afford to be since they were often playing from behind), they should have the ball longer, and that will help after being 26th, 31st and 26th in time of possession in the last three seasons, respectively. Meanwhile, the Patriots averaged 27.8 yards per drive last season (27th in the league) and 12.9 percent of their drives ended in a turnover.
Hold the ball longer. Make more yards. Improve in the field position battle while not giving it up with stupid turnovers AND have a better pass rush to affect opponent scoring output while not being a friggin’ sieve on third down? Sure. They’ll finish top 10.
Phil Perry: Yes
Another tough one here because I think it’s a close call. I’ll say they just miss the mark for a top-10 unit.
They have a weak schedule. I like their corner depth. I like their interior rushers. But there are too many questions for me to predict they’ll end up in the top 10. How do the safeties look as full-time starters? Who will be the top-flight pressure-generator off the edge?
They’ll need to be fully healthy to achieve that kind of ranking, and between Christian Gonzalez’s wonky hamstring and Carlton Davis’ on-again-off-again camp, I’m not sure we can bank on that.
The Patriots will make the playoffs this season. Yes or no?
Tom E. Curran: No
The Patriots won’t make the playoffs. They will finish second in the AFC East and hang around in the Wild Card picture up until the very end, jockeying with the Broncos, Chargers, Steelers and Bengals for one of the three spots.
Matchups with the Bengals, Ravens and Bills over a four-week stretch in late November/early December is the nut punch that doubles them over. They double their win total from 2024, but 8-9 doesn’t cut it.
Phil Perry: No
It’ll be close, and they’ll play meaningful games late into the season, but my answer here is no.
They’ll win nine games. But the playoff teams from the AFC will be the Bills, Chiefs, Jaguars, Broncos and Chargers. It’s the AFC West’s world and the rest of the conference is just living in it.