The last time we saw the Chiefs, they fell off a razor’s edge. They’d kept their balance for 15 tense regular season wins and an AFC Championship, then slipped spectacularly in Super Bowl LIX. Will the coming season be as heart-pounding—or as successful?
They were good in 2024. Were they also lucky? Probably. They were 11-0 in regular season games decided by one score or less—an impossible rate to maintain, for them and a fan’s cardiovascular system. But if they’d won 64 percent of those games—their rate during the Mahomes era to that point—they still would’ve finished the season 11-6. Not the top seed, but in the thick of it.
We fear the games will be close again in 2025. Offensive improvements—the week seven return of receiver Rashee Rice, an expected return to form for running back Isiah Pacheco—could be cancelled out by a shaky offensive line. The secondary lost standout safety Justin Reid but gained a quality cornerback in Kristian Fulton in the offseason. Capable young draftees are expected to step up at defensive tackle and safety.
In predicting the Chiefs’ 2025 season, we tried to account for this propensity for nailbiters. For each “gimme” game—where the Chiefs clearly outmatch their opponent—we’ll give them a win. For the games that could be tossups, we’ll use their winning percentage in one-score games during the 2018–2024 regular seasons: 70 percent.
Weeks 1–4
In the first four weeks of the season, the Chiefs face the Los Angeles Chargers in Brazil this Friday; the Philadelphia Eagles at Arrowhead on September 14; the Giants in New York on September 21; and the Ravens in Baltimore on September 28.
Of these four games, only one is a gimme: the poor Giants. They added several few pieces in the offseason, but after posting a league-worst 3-14 record in 2024, it’ll be tough climbing out of the muck.
The rest of the games could go either way. The Chargers are no joke. The Eagles have beaten the Chiefs every time since they lost to them in Super Bowl LVII, but it’s the Chiefs out for revenge this time. And the Ravens might be the best team in football.
One win against the Giants, then a 70 percent win rate in the tossups, and we expect the Chiefs to finish week four…
3-1
Weeks 5–8
The Chiefs start this stretch on the road—and, if the new Jaguars resemble their four-win selves from 2024, it’s a gimme game. That’s October 6. Then it’s a tossup against the strong but chipped-up Lions at home on October 12; a gimme at home against the Las Vegas Raiders on October 19 (right?); and a tossup at home against the ascendant Washington Commanders on October 27.
Two gimmes, two tossups, some math, and the Chiefs finish week eight…
6-2. (We wouldn’t be surprised if the Raiders upset the Chiefs, but we won’t bet on it.)
Weeks 9–13
On November 2, the Chiefs head to Buffalo to take on the Bills in a game that’s bound to require Pepto. Mercifully, they have the next week off. On November 16, they re-emerge in Denver to face the legit-looking Broncos; then go back to Arrowhead to host the rebuilding Indianapolis Colts on the 23rd; then fly to Dallas to face the Cowboys in the 3:30 p.m. nap game on Thanksgiving.
The Colts game looks like a gimme, and the rest are tossups. That means the Chiefs will conclude weeks 9-13…
9-3.
Weeks 14-17
It’s the final four-game stretch. The Chiefs start in Houston on December 7 against the who-knows Texans—but with receiver Nico Collins and quarterback CJ Stroud, we think it’ll be competitive. Then it’s back home against the Chargers on December 14, then away against the Tennessee Titans on December 21, and then home for the last time to face the pesky Broncos on Christmas.
We’ll say the Texans, Chargers, and Broncos games are tossups, and the Titans game a gimme. The Titans could improve with first overall pick Cam Ward at quarterback, but again, we won’t bet on an upset.
You know the drill. With their record in close games, we expect the Chiefs to head into week 18…
12-4.
Week 18
Is 12-4 enough to clinch the first seed and make week 18 a pointless, rest-your-starters affair? Well, since the NFL added a 17th game to the regular season in 2021, the average top seed has had 13.5 wins. We think this game will mean something.
It’s against the Raiders in Vegas. They Raiders could shock the Chiefs in week seven, but with playoff consequences, we expect the Chiefs to take this one. That means they’ll end their season…
13-4, with a loss in each quarter of the season.
Then the playoffs. We’ll get there when we get there.