It’s been almost two decades since there’s been a three-peat winner of the AFC South. C.J. Stroud has a chance in 2025 to etch his name next to Peyton Manning in some extremely specific and relatively unimportant record books.

The Houston Texans‘ impressive turnaround brought them from three wins in 2022 to back-to-back division titles. That separated them from the freefalls of the Tennessee Titans and Jacksonville Jaguars and past the mediocrity of the Indianapolis Colts and into the postseason, where Wild Card wins (and nothing else) awaited. Houston returns 2023 rookie of the year C.J. Stroud and a bruising defense with its sights set on something more than a sad banner raising the following preseason.

Will the Jaguars surge with a new head coach and two-way lightning bolt in the lineup? Was 2024’s lack of progress merely table-setting for a Texans run? Could the Colts actually make a playoff run with Daniel Jones behind center? Let’s take a look at each team in the AFC South, rolling back through this summer’s 32-team previews to go beyond the depth chart. Teams are listed in alphabetical order by location.

Houston Texans

Biggest question to answer in 2025: Was Bobby Slowik the problem?

Slowik earned head coaching interviews by helping C.J. Stroud emerge as 2023’s offensive rookie of the year. He was fired after 2024, which is the kind of head-spinning burn rate you typically only hear about in tech startups. The change was related to Slowik’s inability to adjust — Stroud’s 2024 approach was pretty similar to his 2023 (similar play action and deep ball rates) but the circumstances around him changed as he faced more pressure and lost wideouts Stefon Diggs, Tank Dell and Nico Collins for 17 combined games due to injury. 

Stroud got worse, even if Houston’s season ended with a division title and Wild Card win for the second-straight season. It’s clear that’s the ceiling if he vacates his potential again, and the Texans weren’t waiting around to see if Slowik could eventually keep up. Instead, in comes Nick Caley and his dual rubs of being both a Bill Belichick guy (oof) and a Sean McVay one (more promising!). He’ll have to make hay despite the cloudy skies of Dell’s extended absence due to a knee injury, Diggs’ departure, a rebuilt offensive line and a pair of veteran running backs (Joe Mixon and Nick Chubb) with more than 3,300 career carries between them.

Potential weakness: Offensive line cohesion

Houston worked hard to overhaul its blocking after Stroud’s pressure rate rose to nearly 39 percent in an underwhelming sophomore season. That’s led to the following arrivals: Cam Robinson, Laken Tomlinson, Ed Ingram, Trent Brown and Aireontae Ersery. They’ll slot in some form around Tytus Howard and Blake Fisher, but there’s a lot that needs to come together before this is more than simply a collection of offensive line parts. If they can’t jell quickly, it’s going to keep Stroud from building meaningful connections with new wideouts Jayden Higgins, Jaylin Noel and Christian Kirk.

Most important newcomer: OT Cam Robinson (and the five other new offensive line additions)

The Texans weren’t content to see if Stroud could recover from a sophomore slump on his own. Houston got proactive this offseason, firing Slowik, trading away offensive linemen Laremy Tunsil and Kenyon Green and releasing Shaq Mason. Robinson is part of a shotgun blast of potential new starters. There aren’t many sure things when your headlining addition is a soon-to-be 30-year-old the Jacksonville Jaguars once considered releasing, but a fresh start makes sense.

Overlooked gem: CB Kamari Lassiter

Derek Stingley is getting his well deserved flowers — and a well-deserved pay raise to $30 million annually. The young cornerback on the opposite sideline is headed toward a similar breakthrough.

Lassiter was a second round pick in 2024 who jumped into the starting lineup at 21 years old last fall. The latest in a string of blue chip Georgia recruits to shine on the defensive side of the ball, Lassiter was a capital-P problem last fall. Only 43 percent of his targets were caught. His 67.2 passer rating allowed in coverage was second only to Baltimore’s Nate Wiggins among rookies and 22nd best in the NFL.

Indianapolis Colts

Biggest question to answer in 2025: How do the logistics of an Anthony Richardson/Daniel Jones QB battle work?

Richardson was a top-five draft pick in large part due to his absurd athletic traits and glorious deep ball. He’s football Mark Reynolds, a low-efficiency high-firework cannon who doesn’t complete many passes but, man oh man, some of the ones he does truly stick with you.

Jones’ lone winning season in six tries as a New York Giant was the function of a low-impact passing attack that saw him dial back his average pass distance to a career-low 6.4 air yards (third-lowest in the NFL). He completed many passes, most of which were routine, boring throws. These are two incredibly different quarterbacks who now have to share a playbook.

Jones won the starting job out of training camp, but his hold is tenuous. Even if he thrives, he’d missed 17 games between 2021 and 2023 due to injury before his 2024 benching. If Indianapolis has to flip back and forth between two tarnished prospects, can their offense keep up?

Potential weakness: See above.

Richardson’s career completion rate is a robust 50.6 percent. Jones’ completion rate on throws that travel at least 10 yards downfield the last three seasons is 50.4. It could be a long, long season in Indiana.

Most important newcomer: CB Charvarius Ward

This could have been Jones, but I don’t want to send Colts fans any deeper into a spiral. It could have been Tyler Warren, who is actually great for Jones’ litany of short-range targets. But, given the unpredictability of Indianapolis’s quarterback situation, I’ll roll with Ward instead.

The Colts added a 2023 All-Pro to punch up the league’s 23rd-best pass defense (in terms of EPA/dropback). He can serve as a veteran leader (along with recent signee Xavien Howard) to help push 2023 draft pick Jaylon Jones and 2025 undrafted free agent Johnathan Edwards toward their potential, but there’s no guarantee he’ll be a massive upgrade after struggling through 2024 (a 116.6 passer rating allowed).

Overlooked gem: OLs Tanor Bortolini and Matt Goncalves

Jonathan Taylor had a bounce-back 2024, rushing for more yards and yards per carry than he had in any season since his breakthrough 2021. A key part of that was the offensive line that helped him gain 2.8 of his 4.7 yards per carry before getting touched by a defender — a number that was fifth-best among full-time NFL tailbacks. That helped get Will Fries and Ryan Kelly paid in Minnesota, leaving two empty spots in the interior of the offensive line next to Quenton Nelson to be filled.

Bortolini and Goncalves were both mid-draft selections in 2024 and combined for 13 starts. That was enough to convince general manager Chris Ballard to roll with them even after losing entrenched veterans; the biggest addition the team made up front was 2025 fourth-round pick Jalen Travis. Goncalves will move from tackle to right guard in hopes of maximizing Indianapolis’ talent, and while that’s a tricky transition he has the length (6-foot-6) and run-blocking chops to be an asset. Bortolini is a well-anchored Wisconsin boy with the explosion to clear lanes and get upfield. They’ve got big shoes to fill, but the Colts are confident they can fill them.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Biggest question to answer in 2025: Can Travis Hunter be the rising tide that lifts the league’s worst passing defense?

No team in the NFL came close to Jacksonville’s 0.241 expected points added (EPA) per dropback allowed last season (the Panthers were the only other defense above 0.2). The major free agent additions to the secondary this spring were Jourdan Lewis and Eric Murray, both of whom are useful veterans on the wrong side of 30 years old this fall. 

That puts heavy expectations on the second overall pick. Hunter will be used on both sides of the ball. While the Jaguars don’t need wideouts quite as badly as a lockdown corner, they definitely *do* need someone besides Brian Thomas Jr. to help Trevor Lawrence off the rocks. Still, the best version of Hunter would be one that serves as an island in coverage, helping Tyson Campbell get back to 2022 form by freeing up safety help to his side and just being a headache for opposing QBs in general.

Potential weakness: Most of the secondary, depending on how Travis Hunter is deployed

A Hunter-Tyson Campbell pairing at corner has potential for greatness, even if Campbell’s play has declined concerningly since his breakthrough 2022. Behind them, however, things get dicey.

A Darnell Savage/Eric Murray combination means two aging starting safeties who are vulnerable in coverage. Jourdan Lewis can handle his business in the slot, but he’ll be 30 years old before the season starts. Last season’s 32nd-ranked passing defense should be better in 2025, but potentially not in a way that matters.

Most important newcomer: Hunter

Shoutout to James Gladstone here as well, who may thrive early on as Jacksonville’s general manager merely by not being Trent Baalke. Gladstone is the man who aggressively traded up for Hunter, who stands to have a similar impact as he did winning the Heisman Trophy as a Colorado Buffalo last fall. He’s no panacea for everything that ails the Jaguars, but he’s a player who can keep opposing AFC South coordinators up at night and, importantly, help push Trevor Lawrence back to the 2022 form that got the Jags to the playoffs and earned the young QB a top-10 MVP voting finish.

Overlooked gem: TE Brenton Strange

Strange has come along slowly since being a 2023 second-round pick, which is fairly expected for a young tight end. After only five catches as a rookie, he took advantage of the extra playing time afforded by Evan Engram’s injuries. His 411-yard campaign was enough to convince Jacksonville to cut bait on Engram (and save around $6 million in salary cap space) in order to turn the starting role over to the young ward.

While Strange’s raw numbers aren’t anything mind blowing, there’s reason to believe he can handle his business. His 1.72 yards per route run (YPRR) ranked 14th in the NFL last year, just a fraction behind Detroit’s Sam LaPorta and ahead of guys like T.J. Hockenson, Travis Kelce and David Njoku. He was useful with the ball in his hands, as his 48 yards after catch over expected ranked 16th in the NFL despite having the fewest catches of anyone in the top-20. He also blocked on nearly half his snaps last season, contributing to an above average run game (14th in EPA/play). With Trevor Lawrence historically favorite his tight ends (who make up nearly 25 percent of his career targets), new head coach Liam Coen could have Strange set up to be a more productive version of 2024 Cade Otton.

Tennessee Titans

Biggest question to answer in 2025: Well, Cam Ward, what’ve you got?

Ward thrived no matter where he was in college — Incarnate Word, Washington State or Miami. That track record of thriving regardless of supporting cast is going to be vital in Nashville. His wideout corps is led by Calvin Ridley, who is 30 years old but coming off a season in which his 1.99 yards per route run (YPRR) still ranked in the top-40 among receivers despite the Will Levis of it all. After that, things get bleak. His new veteran arrivals are Van Jefferson and a soon-to-be 33-year-old Tyler Lockett. His rookie talent includes Elic Ayomanor (fourth round pick), Chimere DIke (ditto) and Xavier Restrepo (undrafted and currently on the practice squad). 

That’s going to put a big challenge in front of him even before you consider a rebuilt offensive line that needs time to jell after Levis was pressured on nearly 40 percent of his dropbacks last season. But 2025 may be more about showing proof of concept rather than emerging fully formed into stardom. If he can show flashes a la Drake Maye in New England last fall, it’ll be a victory in Tennessee.

Potential weakness: Pass rush, wide receiver

The Titans have plenty of holes to fill. Ward will be throwing to a lineup that will be headed by Calvin Ridley and potentially starting two different Day 3 rookies depending on how Jefferson and Lockett perform. The pass rush is similarly dire. Arden Key and Jeffery Simmons are the only returning players who have recorded more than 2.5 sacks last season.

Most important newcomer: Ward

It would be nice if there was a bit more proven receiving help in the lineup, but Ward is a master when it comes to turning things into something greater than the sum of its parts. The question is whether a below average offensive line can protect him long enough to get there.

Overlooked gem: WR Chimere Dike

After staring at Treylon Burks’ crossed-out name on the depth chart, considering all the pre-draft stuff I loved about him and quietly muttering to myself that I am, in fact, a buffoon, we land on Dike. Like fellow fourth round rookie Elic Ayomanor, he’ll have plenty of opportunity to contribute to an offense that has Calvin Ridley, Van Jefferson and an aging Tyler Lockett penciled in as its top-three wideouts.

Dike and Ayomanor both played with quarterbacks who had limitations in college. Dike had the better situation, eventually following Graham Mertz from Wisconsin to Florida and getting a chance to stretch his wings as a downfield threat, particularly with DJ Lagway in the lineup (Lagway’s average yards per catch: 16.7. Mertz’s? 11.1).

Dike has the top end speed (a 4.34-second 40) to be a deep threat but can also thrive as a run-after-catch savant. That’s the kind of support that can turn easy throws into big gains for Ward and take some of the defensive pressure off Ridley’s shoulders in the receiving game.