Can the New England Patriots live up to the hype? We’ll start finding out in three days.

After an eventful offseason that featured the hiring of a new head coach (Mike Vrabel), the signing of several high-profile free agents (Stefon Diggs, Milton Williams, Harold Landry, etc.) and the addition of multiple notable rookies (Will Campbell, TreVeyon Henderson, Kyle Williams, etc.), the Patriots are expected to make dramatic improvements after back-to-back 4-13 seasons.

But how much can they improve? Can they more than double their 2024 win total to snap a three-year postseason drought?

Much of New England’s success or failure rests on the right shoulder of second-year quarterback Drake Maye and his new supporting cast. So, we enlisted our partners at Strat-O-Matic, the market leader in sports simulations, to simulate the Patriots’ 2025 season, complete with results for every game and full season stats for key players.

Here are the results, followed by offensive player stats:

Patriots miss playoffs after early- and late-season stumbles

The Patriots double their win total to eight games in this simulation, but an 8-9 record isn’t good enough for an AFC playoff berth.

Vrabel’s club endures some early growing pains by going 1-4 in its first five games, including disappointing losses to the Las Vegas Raiders and Carolina Panthers.

The Patriots rip off four straight wins to improve to 5-4 but drop road games to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Cincinnati Bengals to enter their Week 14 bye at 7-6.

With the postseason still in reach, New England is undone by a difficult December schedule, falling to the Buffalo Bills, Baltimore Ravens and Miami Dolphins down the stretch to go under .500 for the fourth consecutive season.

But there are still silver linings to take away from this campaign…

Maye puts up impressive numbers as dual-threat QB

… Starting with the play of Drake Maye.

Maye’s yardage total isn’t eye-popping — his 3,460 passing yards in this simulation would have ranked 19th in the NFL in 2024 — but he nearly doubles his TD total from 15 as a rookie to 29 in 2025. (Only five quarterbacks threw more than 29 TD passes last season.)

Maye’s interception rate also drops, from 10 picks on 338 attempts (3.0 percent) as a rookie to 14 picks on 531 attempts (2.6 percent) in Year 2. The 23-year-old increases his rushing output as well by scooting for 519 yards on 66 attempts (7.9 yards per rush) with three additional touchdowns. (Only five QBs rushed for more than 519 yards last season.)

These aren’t “bona fide superstar” numbers from Maye, but they’re a notable improvement from Year 1 and would place him comfortably among the NFL’s top 15 signal-callers in just his second season.

TreVeyon Henderson breaks out

We might have buried the lead here, as the rookie out of Ohio State puts up the most eye-opening numbers in Strat-O-Matic’s simulation.

Henderson gallops for 916 yards on 224 attempts with 10 rushing touchdowns while taking over as New England’s bell-cow back. The simulation has Rhamondre Stevenson rushing for a modest 585 yards on 148 attempts with just two touchdowns.

If Henderson hits these totals, he’d become just the sixth Patriots rookie to rush for 900-plus yards (the most recent was Sony Michel in 2018) and just the second Patriots rookie to amass 10 or more rushing TDs. (Curtis Martin is the other.)

As expected based on his preseason usage, Henderson also makes an impact in the passing game, adding 331 receiving yards on 38 catches (8.7 yards per reception) to finish his rookie campaign with 1,247 total yards.

For context, Stevenson and Antonio Gibson had 374 receiving yards combined last season, so these contributions from Henderson in the passing game would be very welcome.

DeMario Douglas, not Stefon Diggs, paces Patriots WRs

Diggs is the top receiver on New England’s depth chart, but he’s not Maye’s favorite target in this simulation.

Instead, DeMario Douglas leads the Patriots in both receptions (67) and yards (672) for the second straight season, modestly improving on his 66-catch, 621-yard campaign in 2024. Tight end Hunter Henry racks up 53 catches for 497 yards and four touchdowns, while Diggs finishes with 50 catches, 556 yards and five touchdowns while averaging 11.1 yards per reception.

Those may be disappointing numbers by Diggs’ standards, but they seem to be a product of Maye spreading the wealth. Kayshon Boutte also contributes 44 catches for 549 yards and a team-high seven TDs in this simulation, meaning the Patriots have four pass-catchers contributing (roughly) 500 or more receiving yards, for a total of 2,274.

On the other hand, this simulation proves New England still lacks a true No. 1 receiver, as they haven’t had a 1,000-yard wideout since Julian Edelman in 2019.