The Houston Texans are coming off another AFC South division title, but still managed to finish with a 10-7 record. That’s fine for a first-year stater with C.J. Stroud, but after a promising 2024 offseason, mot envisioned Houston to be in the hunt for the conference title.
This offseason, things changed. Houston parted ways with offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik and hired Nick Caley from the Los Angeles Rams. Pro Bowl left tackle Laremy Tunsil was traded to the Washington Commanders and drafted Minnesota’s Tay Ersery as his replacement. The Texans also brought in Iowa State receiver Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins, along with veteran pass-catcher Christian Kirk.
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The defense should still be the backbone of the franchise as it returns some key cornerstones, including cornerback Derek Stingley Jr., and edge rushers Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr.
Will Houston contend in a very winnable AFC South? The Indianapolis Colts, who have finished second in back-to-back years, have questions at quarterback and are turning to veteran Daniel Jones over Anthony Richardson. The Tennessee Titans had the No. 1 overall pick and selected Cam Ward out of the University of Miami. The Jacksonville Jaguars have Travis Hunter, the reigning Heisman Trophy winner, but also are starting fresh wth a new head coach in Liam Coen.
Do the Rwx have what it takes to compete in this division? Here’s a roundup of expert and analyst record predictions for the AFC South in 2025.
Aug 16, 2025; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Texans running back Nick Chubb (21) rushes for five yards against the Houston Texans in the first quarter at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-Imagn Images
Jacksonville Jaguars: 7-10
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Bhanpuri writes: “The Texans have more overall continuity and talent than their division-mates, which is why they’re my pick to take the South for a third straight season. Growing pains in places like Tennessee and Jacksonville won’t last forever, though, which is why both Rank and I expect a fair amount of volatility in the division race.”
Jacksonville Jaguars: 7-10
Orr writes: “I faded the Texans a bit last year and overrated the Colts. This year, it appears, I have come to a similar conclusion. In fairness, Houston was stagnant offensively, which prompted a change at offensive coordinator. What scares me is that I feel like I only got to 10 wins despite being very fair to this year’s Texans. For instance, I have them beating the Rams in the opener and the Buccaneers in Week 2. I have them splitting a season series with the Jaguars, sweeping the Titans, splitting with the Colts and beating the Broncos. Still, I found that 10th win to feel a little hard to muster. I’m sure Texans fans will disagree, but the fact is that Houston will also lose one or two games that we would deem uncharacteristic (Jets and Titans last year, anyone?). “
Aug 16, 2025; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) runs out of the tunnel onto the field before playing against the Carolina Panthers at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-Imagn Images
Jacksonville Jaguars: 8-9
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Davis writes: “With a new offensive coordinator (Nick Caley), reconfigured line, an already beaten-up group of running backs and three 2024 division winners awaiting in the season’s first five weeks, don’t be surprised if the Texans get off to a slow start. But they also appear to remain the least-flawed team in what seems like a fairly weak division and play three of their final four games at home.”
Nov 24, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Texans wide receiver Nico Collins (12) celebrates with quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) and wide receiver John Metchie III (8) after a touchdown during the second quarter against the Tennessee Titans at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images
NFL Nation, ESPN
Jacksonville Jaguars: 7-10
ESPN’s D.J. Bien-Aime writes: “Most of the starters on the offensive line have struggled throughout their career, or at least recently. Tackle Aireontae Ersery looked promising in camp, though he is a rookie, and T Tytus Howard is proven. But outside of them, the starters could be a few guys who have been castoffs. So how will that come together in a pivotal Year 3 for coach DeMeco Ryans?”
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This article originally appeared on Texans Wire: Texans the favorites in AFC South? Experts predict division winner