The Titans were one of three NFL teams that finished last season with a 3-14 record.
But based on strength of schedule analysis, Tennessee appears to have a far easier path to 2025 success than either the New York Giants or Cleveland Browns, the two other teams who finished at the bottom of the league.
Calculating teams’ strength of schedule in the old-school format — simply based on last year’s win-loss records — the Titans have the fourth-easiest 2025 schedule, as their opponents posted a combined .450 winning percentage in 2024.
Tennessee will play seven games against teams that finished .500 or better last year (Houston twice, along with Kansas City, the Los Angeles Rams, the Los Angeles Chargers, Denver and Seattle) and six against teams that reached the playoffs (all those teams except Seattle).
The Titans should be breathing a sigh of relief, compared to the roads their fellow three-win teams will be facing this season.
Again, based solely on last season’s finishes, the Giants face the toughest 2025 schedule, as their opponents posted a .574 winning percentage. Cleveland has the 13th-most difficult schedule, with the Browns facing teams that posted a combined .519 winning percentage in 2024.
But how does the Titans’ 2025 strength of schedule rank using newer methods of evaluation?
The Sharp Football Analysis website, for instance, computes strength of schedule after free agency and the draft, based on Vegas’ 2025 win projections for each team.
Using that formula, the Titans’ 2025 road appears to be a bit more challenging, as Tennessee has the eighth-easiest schedule in the NFL.
But that’s still a vastly different outlook than the slates ahead of the three-win Giants and Browns, as New York is still forecast to face the most difficult schedule in the league, while Cleveland will tackle the second-most challenging schedule.
Just how important is strength of schedule?
The Sharp website notes that, of the 10 teams with the easiest schedules in 2024, seven posted winning records and six made the playoffs.
Meanwhile, just two of the 10 teams with the toughest schedules made the playoffs — Detroit and the Los Angeles Rams.
Here’s one more system used to estimate strength of schedule: ESPN’s Mike Clay does it by assigning values to each team’s position groups (after free agency and the draft), and then forecasting based on the those totals.
Using that system, the Titans are tied with Indianapolis for the easiest schedule in the league, trailing only San Francisco.
Bottom line? Any way you slice it, the Titans won’t be able use a difficult schedule as an excuse in 2025 if they finish in — or near — the basement once again.